Random post-Derby thoughts

[blackthroatedwind]

That was funny.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

However, if you think him being a distant 2nd in a race that was completely wiped out by the winner (does TFM have a trademark on that phrase?)
NT

Nick

Actually, it was a 'wipeout otherwise'.

West Side Bernie being the exception.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Nick and Andy both nailed it, and you've got it backwards. POTN was relatively slow before the Derby. People who hammered him to 6-1 were the ones making the assumption - that he'd improve on dirt. He had to in order to contend for the win. People who tossed him were simply saying that if he doesn't improve on dirt, which he didn't, he won't win. I don't call that "pure speculation."

And he's still relatively slow. He ran OK in the Derby and anyone who thinks he ran better has some explaining to do, not us. He was stomped by the winner, drifted out badly and should've been DQ'ed from 2nd.

The argument wasn't "he's going to suck on dirt" or "he won't be a dirt horse," it was "he'll have to be faster on dirt than he was on synthetic to win big dirt races." He still isn't. He's still an average three-year-old. Maybe that'll change in Pimlico, but he's still average, and how you think otherwise is puzzling.

Let me jump in here because this BS has gone on long enough.

The position by both Serling and Beyer was that POTN was a BET AGAINST in the DERBY. They both explicitly stated that the way to make money, this year's strategy, was to NOT USE this horse. Whatever that might mean, it certainly WASN'T validated when the horse HIT THE BOARD.

Any ****in way you spin this, and the primary one is that the horse is SLOW, still doesn't account for the fact that the horse RAN 2nd. Doesn't matter who was in the race because these claims were made when IWR was still in the race---which means that POTN, AT WORST, runs 3rd.

For those whose handicapping is not driven by BEYERS and who basically have a clue when it comes to evaluating horses, they missed the mark. The horse is nothing special but he's not the rat they make him out to be.

And, P.S. those who don't bet POLY on a regular basis really shouldn't be commenting about it under the guise of experts.

Gimme a ****in break already.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me jump in here because this BS has gone on long enough.

The position by both Serling and Beyer was that POTN was a BET AGAINST in the DERBY. They both explicitly stated that the way to make money, this year's strategy, was to NOT USE this horse. Whatever that might mean, it certainly WASN'T validated when the horse HIT THE BOARD.

Any ****in way you spin this, and the primary one is that the horse is SLOW, still doesn't account for the fact that the horse RAN 2nd. Doesn't matter who was in the race because these claims were made when IWR was still in the race---which means that POTN, AT WORST, runs 3rd.

For those whose handicapping is not driven by BEYERS and who basically have a clue when it comes to evaluating horses, they missed the mark. The horse is nothing special but he's not the rat they make him out to be.

And, P.S. those who don't bet POLY on a regular basis really shouldn't be commenting about it under the guise of experts.

Gimme a ****in break already.

fat man if the stewards had done their job, POTN would have been placed fourth - as much as some on here talk about cheating by trainers , there needs to be more attention to what the stewards are doing and why they are doing it , regardless if coa or papa's jock claimed foul the stewards should have taken the horse down no ands or if's about it

the public was given virtually no reason why this didn't happen , i don't even remember nbc mentioning it once, just a travesty to anyone who had MM for place of had him in the 2nd spot for the exacta's

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by gales0678

fat man if the stewards had done their job, POTN would have been placed fourth - as much as some on here talk about cheating by trainers , there needs to be more attention to what the stewards are doing and why they are doing it , regardless if coa or papa's jock claimed foul the stewards should have taken the horse down no ands or if's about it

the public was given virtually no reason why this didn't happen , i don't even remember nbc mentioning it once, just a travesty to anyone who had MM for place of had him in the 2nd spot for the exacta's

what does that have to do with any of this, Gales? the horse would've still come across the wire in 2nd place.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

what does that have to do with any of this, Gales? the horse would've still come across the wire in 2nd place.

it has to do with the integrity of the game and who is making these decisions
for the millions of $ that were in the pool

we as players deserve better from the stewards, bad stewards , no explanation from CD on this is laughable

as for the horse being fast or slow / good or bad , let him take his shot again on sat - hopefully it will be a fast dirt track and not a slopfest, after sat there answer about this horse maybe eaiser to figure out

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I said they're were 19 bet againsts in the Derby ... of which none would get within six lengths of a pair of subsequent scratchers.

Musket Man and POTN were the most honest grinding horses in the race .. but both are slowpokes .. they became my 3rd and 4th choices after scratches because they seemed logical to plug up for a piece and fire. While others might be hit or miss.

It was a bad Derby without IRW, QR, The Pamp, and OF.

The winner remains impossible.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I said they're were 19 bet againsts in the Derby ... of which none would get within six lengths of a pair of subsequent scratchers.

Musket Man and POTN were the most honest grinding horses in the race .. but both are slowpokes .. they became my 3rd and 4th choices after scratches because they seemed logical to plug up for a piece and fire. While others might be hit or miss.

It was a bad Derby without IRW, QR, The Pamp, and OF.

The winner remains impossible.

Mine ended up being Papa Clem and Musket Man after the scratches, under similar consequence.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me jump in here because this BS has gone on long enough.

The position by both Serling and Beyer was that POTN was a BET AGAINST in the DERBY. They both explicitly stated that the way to make money, this year's strategy, was to NOT USE this horse. Whatever that might mean, it certainly WASN'T validated when the horse HIT THE BOARD.

Any ****in way you spin this, and the primary one is that the horse is SLOW, still doesn't account for the fact that the horse RAN 2nd. Doesn't matter who was in the race because these claims were made when IWR was still in the race---which means that POTN, AT WORST, runs 3rd.

For those whose handicapping is not driven by BEYERS and who basically have a clue when it comes to evaluating horses, they missed the mark. The horse is nothing special but he's not the rat they make him out to be.

And, P.S. those who don't bet POLY on a regular basis really shouldn't be commenting about it under the guise of experts.

Gimme a ****in break already.

Had nothing to do with Beyers for me to stand against him, it had everything to do with the poor performance of other synthetic horses in the Derby. For example, Colonel John was 10X more talented than POTN and he was an ineffective 6th against a worse field. I said I'll continue to toss them all until one of them beats me. Well, he did... sort of. As for this year, I still wouldn't have had the winner, so no additional blood, but it means back to the drawing board for next year.

As for POTN in a vacuum, if Mott started him on turf because he thought he belonged there, that was enough for me before he actually ran on dirt. He knows the horse a lot better than I do. His Derby performance was OK, better than I had expected, especially given the outside part of the racetrack. However, keep in mind the completely useless Join in the Dance which he sat just off of was only 6 lengths behind him... that to me says a lot.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I said they're were 19 bet againsts in the Derby ... of which none would get within six lengths of a pair of subsequent scratchers.

Musket Man and POTN were the most honest grinding horses in the race .. but both are slowpokes .. they became my 3rd and 4th choices after scratches because they seemed logical to plug up for a piece and fire. While others might be hit or miss.

It was a bad Derby without IRW, QR, The Pamp, and OF.

The winner remains impossible.

Okay, DrugS.

I have a problem in using SLOW when the SLOW horse beats the FAST horse both times they met. Now, this probably isn't a problem for BEYERITES but I'm not buying it. So, no matter how FAST IWR is, he still hasn't beating POTN yet. And probably never will given his injury.

Anything else is just rhetoric.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

And, P.S. those who don't bet POLY on a regular basis really shouldn't be commenting about it under the guise of experts.Gimme a ****in break already.

[PeteMugg]

I don't have all the info in front of me, I'm having trouble remembering how many 10f races QR and IWR have won thus far.

Any chance they might have staggered home on a track like that? All but MTB did. I didn't consider either to be locks to hit the board. It's easy to say they are great when they didn't even make the gate.

Where did the horses these two beat finish in the derby?

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Can you honestly say that while watching him down the stretch in the Derby you felt like you were watching a good horse?

Can you honestly make something out of that quagmire.
You may be absolutely correct, POTN might be just
a good old fashioned effort horse without much talent.
Really a very run of the mill 3yo.

But if you can take the Derby, and make definitive statements
about POTN, I would like to know how.

Further more if you can claim that probably the two best 3 yo
that are unable to run would have won in that slop by at the very least 7 lengths
I would like to know how you figure that given the conditions.
Because some have claimed Revenge AND Quality Road would
have filled out the exacta.

[Travis Stone]

This is an entertaining thread.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Pioneerof The Nile was 6-1 in the Derby. In a manner of speaking, this represents a less-than-15% chance of winning.

Now, let's say you were planning to bet against POTN, yet you would have admitted before the race that if he DID handle the dirt, he was among the most likely winners. By betting against POTN, you are essentially saying "I think there is less than a 15% chance that POTN will handle dirt." (I know, I'm simplifying this for effect, but for the sake of argument...)

To put it another way, if you thought that POTN was a potential winner IF he handled dirt, AND if you felt the likelihood of him handling dirt was higher than 15%, then it is easily arguable that he DID offer value.

here is an approximate percentage distribution of how I handicapped the race;

friesan fire = 40%
dunkirk = 12%
chocolate candy = 7%
desert party = 7%
pioneerof the nile = 7%
papa clem 4%
Join in the dance 2.5%
musket man 2.5%
ABOVE 8 = 78%
ALL other 11 = 22%


these above percentages were not conditional in any way - including POTN. As I said I believed he would be fine on dirt, I did have some question about his stamina and I didn't see him as having a lot of talent.
Friesan Fire was much the best , I felt Dunkirk had a shot to win , and after that there were 3 horses who I felt had about even chances (CHocolateCandy,DesertParty,POTN). CHocolate candy may have liked the distance a lot more than Pioneer of the Nile and was a lot better price. Desert Party could have been anything - there was a small probability that he even had enough talent to win outright and he was paying much more than Pioneerof The Nile.

IN HINDSIGHT: After the race, I obviously underestimated Musket Man . I also underestimated POTN - although not by much!, and I overestimated chocolate candy and Desert Party.
I also greatly underestimated Mine That Bird. Given Borel's tactics he would win his share of Kentucky Derby 135's should they run an infinite amount of races in some kind of time warp, and he deserves at least 15% of Friesan Fire's dominant share of the win probability.
[assigning Mine That Bird anywhere near that extra probability is beyond my handicapping skill without hindsight, Musket Man was probably my most correctable error- given that his trainer was being praised for his stamina building methods, and my knock against him was stamina.]


SUMMARY
I did include POTN on some coverage tickets where I used 5 or 6 horses in a slot. However as you can see, with my opinions he was a ripoff to use on narrower tickets and there was no contingency about the surface involved.

[Pedigree Ann]

Comparing Colonel John to Pioneerof the Nile is inappropriate because the pair ran on surfaces that were not the same.

Are your memories so short? Don't you remember what a mess the Santa Anita Cushion Track was last year? The asphalt base that didn't drain? The lost racing days? The days when maiden claimers ran in 1:08 and change? Only to be followed after the triage work by days when the track was slow by anybody's standard?

That track was dug up including the base, and an entirely new track laid down, a different formulation called Pro-Ride on top. This track has been used only since last Oak Tree meeting. No 3yos have come into the Derby after having prepped on Pro-Ride before.

Pro-Ride is not Poly is not Tapeta is not Cushion, just like Churchill is not Gulfstream (which is not the previous Gulfstream) is not Belmont is not Aqueduct inner track. Synth tracks can vary from one another as much as dirt tracks do.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Comparing Colonel John to Pioneerof the Nile is inappropriate because the pair ran on surfaces that were not the same.

Are your memories so short? Don't you remember what a mess the Santa Anita Cushion Track was last year? The asphalt base that didn't drain? The lost racing days? The days when maiden claimers ran in 1:08 and change? Only to be followed after the triage work by days when the track was slow by anybody's standard?

That track was dug up including the base, and an entirely new track laid down, a different formulation called Pro-Ride on top. This track has been used only since last Oak Tree meeting. No 3yos have come into the Derby after having prepped on Pro-Ride before.

Pro-Ride is not Poly is not Tapeta is not Cushion, just like Churchill is not Gulfstream (which is not the previous Gulfstream) is not Belmont is not Aqueduct inner track. Synth tracks can vary from one another as much as dirt tracks do.

I am 100% sure DrugS knows plenty about synth tracks.

[Scurlogue Champ]

POTN just always seems so gay to me. I hate gay horses.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by justindew

While I appreciate your non-confrontational response, I must remind you that I never said anyone was wrong or that I was right. I merely asked those who are anti-POTN to state, for the record, exactly what they think about the horse AND what has to happen for them to change their minds.

When I asked "What does POTN have to do...", I legitimately wanted to know what they feel he has to do.

Not be a pig.............LOL.....


EPosse is on to something!!!!!!

[pointman]

Pioneer of What? Even worse than I thought he was!

[ateamstupid]