Derby/Oaks Future Wager Pool 2

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Also, it seems the "system" is allowing $1 base bets, which was not the intention. It was supposed to be a $2 minimum.

What's the expected handle on the future-exactas and what's your guess?

I'd like to see $250k.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

What's the expected handle on the future-exactas and what's your guess?

I'd like to see $250k.

I think it would take a miracle to reach $250k, considering there's only been about $15k so far.

My guess is $100,000-$120,000.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by justindew

I think it would take a miracle to reach $250k, considering there's only been about $15k so far.

My guess is $100,000-$120,000.

I agree. My guess is 120K.

Also, CD has taken the exacta odds off the live odds page.

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

The panel who determines the individual betting interests has been terrible this year. In Pool 1 they had a bunch of big fig sprinters. Here they include sprinter Big Drama who hasn't run and missed at least a month of training in Feb and March. On the filly side they include a filly whose trainer says she's not pointing to the Oaks in Dream Empress. McPeek said in January that the was pointing to the Oaks at Epsom and that she's not a dirt horse. These guys work for the Form, but do they read the Form?

I Want Revenge (55/1) was the largest priced individual horse of the 23 in Round #1.

Big Drama was the 2nd highest price at 48/1 ... yeah maybe he shouldn't have been back again on account of no subsequent race.

The panel should have one job and one job alone ... and that's to determine who the 23 horses likely to take the most money are - and place them as the 23 entries in the bet.

It's as simple as that. There job isn't to determine who is a sprinter and who is a router. Afleet Alex lost the first several route races of his career - and looked like a sprinter going into the Ark Derby - it didn't stop him from winning the Belmont with ease.

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has put its fixed odds futures back up. Again, there are just 23 entries, corresponding exactly to the horses in KDFW Pool 2. Here are the odds at TheGreek both before and after yesterday's preps:

Bears Rocket 45.5 80.5
Beethoven 35.5 25.5
Big Drama 0 0
Chocolate Candy 40.5 32.5
Desert Party 14.15 16.15
Dunkirk 13 10.15
Flying Pegasus 35.5 60.5
Friesan Fire 18.15 10.15
General Quarters 30.5 60.5
Giant Oak 25.5 52.5
Hello Broadway 25.5 40.5
I Want Revenge 12 8.25
Imperial Council 25.5 25.5
Old Fashioned 8.45 10.15
Papa Clem 40.5 40.5
Patena 25.5 40.5
Pioneer of the Nile 13.25 14.15
Quality Road 18.15 14.15
Silver City 60.5 85.5
Take the Points 60.5 80.5
The Pamplemousse 20.5 14.25
Theregoesjojo 30.5 30.5
West Side Bernie 40.5 30.5
Any Other Horse 4.85 3.45

The top horses that didn't run yesterday (Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Pamplemousse, Quality Road) have all had their odds come down substantially.

This odds set at TheGreek has a "takeout" of 15.7% compared to the 9.7% "takeout" of the earlier odds.

The Pamplemousse is 14-1 at TheGreek, but just 8-1 currently in the KDFW. Dunkirk is 10-1 at TheGreek but just 6-1 now in the KDFW. Conversely, I Want Revenge is 8.25-1 at TheGreek but is now 10-1 in the KDFW. All Others is 3.45-1 at TheGreek, but is 6-1 in the KDFW.

--Dunbar

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Dabbled with a few exacta boxes....2-21 / 6-20 / 12-22 / 13-24 / 14-11/15
went with the 13 & 20 in the Derby futues and the 10 in the Oaks. What the heck!

[herkhorse]

I tried to do an all others with all others exacta box and they wouldn't let me.

[DJARUM]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I tried to do an all others with all others exacta box and they wouldn't let me.

From what I understand you can only use it once.

[Kasept]

FINAL POOL 2 ODDS

1 Bears Rocket Reade Baker 50 99
2 Beethoven John Ward, Jr. 30 23
3 Big Drama David Fawkes SCR
4 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 29
5 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 17
6 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 12 7
7 Flying Pegasus Ralph Nicks 20 65
8 Friesan Fire J. Jones 12 8
9 General Quarters Mark Miller 30 80
10 Giant Oak Chris Block 20 42
11 Hello Broadway Barclay Tagg 30 69
12 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 10 10
13 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 20
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 8 8
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 15 65
16 Patena Richard Dutrow Jr. 15 71
17 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 12
18 Quality Road James Jerkens 12 14
19 Silver City W. Calhoun 30 99
20 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 77
21 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 10 9
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 15 19
23 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen 30 43
24 All Other Three Ye 8 9/2

[VOL JACK]

I really dont see a good bet. Alot of Underlays...but NO VALUE.

[justindew]

Take the Points and Patena look like they offered value.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Desert Party looks like value to me.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by justindew

Take the Points and Patena look like they offered value.

Patena offers value if you're not afraid of playing a horse with very little in graded earnings, and only having one prep left which he'll have to come in first or second to even qualify

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

FINAL POOL 2 ODDS

1 Bears Rocket Reade Baker 50 99
2 Beethoven John Ward, Jr. 30 23
3 Big Drama David Fawkes SCR
4 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 29
5 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 17
6 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 12 7
7 Flying Pegasus Ralph Nicks 20 65
8 Friesan Fire J. Jones 12 8
9 General Quarters Mark Miller 30 80
10 Giant Oak Chris Block 20 42
11 Hello Broadway Barclay Tagg 30 69
12 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 10 10
13 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 20
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 8 8
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 15 65
16 Patena Richard Dutrow Jr. 15 71
17 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 12
18 Quality Road James Jerkens 12 14
19 Silver City W. Calhoun 30 99
20 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 77
21 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 10 9
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 15 19
23 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen 30 43
24 All Other Three Ye 8 9/2

Anyone have the actual will-pays? Big difference between 4.5-1 and 4.9-1. Between 7-1 and 7.9-1.

--Dunbar

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by justindew

I think it would take a miracle to reach $250k, considering there's only been about $15k so far.

My guess is $100,000-$120,000.

Why would anyone in their right mind trust a "system" like that? Accepting bets they can't honour??? Isn't that close to money-laundering?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

Why would anyone in their right mind trust a "system" like that? Accepting bets they can't honour??? Isn't that close to money-laundering?

Huh? It's about as close to a fig newton as it is to money-laundering.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

I think it would take a miracle to reach $250k, considering there's only been about $15k so far.

My guess is $100,000-$120,000.

$104k, good call. I guess I was way too optimistic that it would be completely "new" money, figuring $350k in the win pool and maybe 75% of that in the exacta pool. I guess relatively speaking total handle between the two bets was decent at $380k which is up 20% from last year and in this economy that's like being up 100%!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Anyone have the actual will-pays? Big difference between 4.5-1 and 4.9-1. Between 7-1 and 7.9-1.

--Dunbar

Actual willpays are up on the Kentuckyderby.com website. Dunkirk closes as the individual favorite, LOL. Side note, any idea what the hell that guy is talking about money laundering?!?

[brianwspencer]

Wow, my near 30-1 on Flying Pegasus and Silver City from pool 1 look kind of pathetic now.

Oops.

[herkhorse]

I took a stab with Quality Road. Was hoping for better performances by the weekend favorites, but I'll take the 14-1.