Hard Spun & Belmont Distance

[10 pnt move up]

Curlin is about as close to a lock as your going to get in the Belmont, I guess if Hard Spun freaks or something on the front end, but I highly doubt anyone is running by Curlin from behind.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Didn't say he (Drifty) was going to win did I? Just that I hoped and was rooting for Drifty. Head said Boboman, although look where that got me.

Honestly though, I don't think Hard Spun is going to win this one. Curlin either for that matter. Just my original thoughts. Once the PPs are up I will do my homework some more. Not writing anything in pen yet.

When did you actually start using pps and not just having a vision or going to the fortun teller?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm pretty sure you said it yourself (maybe it was someone else)- Curlin came to Assmussen as a front-runner with a miler's pedigree and has become some what of a closer type who has been able to get added distance. . . At what point (or distance) will this catch up with him? I'm not saying he's not the most talented horse in this field, but at the supposedly obselete distance of the Belmont he may be compromised while other horses should/could enjoy the added ground. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking because I don't bet 4/5 shots. . .

I'm no fan of Curlin, but pedigreewise and running style he's awfully similar to Afleet Alex and he had no problem with 12F. If there's anything I can knock him on it's an absolute MUST that the winner have raced at 2. I'd be shocked if he doesn't hit the board simply because the field is horrific beyond the top 2 and 2:31 might be good enough for 3rd.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

it's an absolute MUST that the winner have raced at 2.

Why?

If anything is going to beat Curlin on Saturday, it will be if Hard Spun gets loose on an uncontested lead while rating kindly....or if Rags to Riches can find the much needed improvement that she projects for on the three furlong stretchout to 12 furlongs.

[Danzig]

it's a shame for curlin--nice horse, but no way i can hope for a win for him here-or anywhere for that matter.


any geldings running?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why?

If anything is going to beat Curlin on Saturday, it will be if Hard Spun gets loose on an uncontested lead while rating kindly....or if Rags to Riches can find the much needed improvement that she projects for on the three furlong stretchout to 12 furlongs.

This is what I'm banking on. . . I think her 104 beyer @ 1 1/8 was the highest run by any of these horses at three- With her ped she should be able to improve a good deal with the added distance. . .

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why?

If anything is going to beat Curlin on Saturday, it will be if Hard Spun gets loose on an uncontested lead while rating kindly....or if Rags to Riches can find the much needed improvement that she projects for on the three furlong stretchout to 12 furlongs.

I have no idea. It's just worked that way for a long time and given the grueling nature of the race, logically it makes sense to have needed that 2YO foundation. Rules are made to be broken, of course- and your analysis is the only way I see it as well.
This race interests me zero, therefore for every 5 minutes I spend on it I'll take an hour on the undercard races.

[jpops757]

I havent made my choice yet. The popular opinion that HS will run out of gas, sure dosent add up. Yes he had been passed by 2 very nice co;ts in the last. He was still running and none of the others was threatening him.. Think about it . They all run the same distance unless the are caught wide. Mabe Curlin will tire from the added distance and not be ble to eat into the frontrunners lead. Front runners with staying power can win therse races by just getting too much of a lead and compromising these tiring closers.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by jpops757

When did you actually start using pps and not just having a vision or going to the fortun teller?

That's a bit coarse.

What does it matter if somebody is just a fan of the sport and doesn't care all that much about reading a racing form or making a huge wager?

Last time I went to the track there were about 10,000 empty seats. There's plenty of room for fans of the sport.

[Antitrust32]

Just going off pedigree (I got these #'s from pedigree query)-

I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it. Danzig is more known for sprinters I thought. His DI is 2.67 and his CD is .66. According to http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/review.htm those numbers would make him most effective at 9 - 9 1/2 furlongs, which would compliment his run in the Derby. I dont understand how that makes him great for 12 f.

I'll go through the other horses-

Curlin DI 4.00 and CD 1.05 - bred for 6 - 7 furlongs

Rags to Riches - DI 3.00 CD .86 - bred for 7 to 9 furlongs

I'mawildncrazyguy - DI 6.00 and CD1.07 - bred for short sprints!

Tiago - DI 1.91 CD .31 - bred for 12 furlongs and beyond

Slews Tizzy - DI 2.00 CD . 67 - bred 9 - 12 furlongs

Digger - DI 4.33 CD 1.00 - Bred for eating and pooping

Time Squared - DI 3.25 CD .91 - bred for around a mile

Circular Quay - DI 2.08 CD .66 - bred 9-12 furlongs (probably wont run)


So if you are going off only pedigree, Tiago and Slews Tizzy are your guys (may want to keep them in your exotics). Granted horses dont run to their pedigree always (Curlin), but I wouldnt say Hard Spun is a lock at 12f.

I'll go through the past 10 Belmont winners and their pedigree for distance, maybe we can put things together.

Jazil - DI = 3.00 CD = 0.89 Bred for 8 - 9 furlongs

Afleet Alex - DI = 2.11 CD = 0.71 Bred for 11 furlongs

Birdstone - DI = 1.77 CD = 0.33 Bred for 12 and beyond

Empire Maker - DI = 1.88 CD = 0.42 bred for 12 and beyond

Sarava - DI = 4.50 CD = 1.00 Bred for sprints

Point Given - DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Bred for 9 furlongs or shorter

Commendable - DI = 5.00 CD = 1.07 Bred for quarter horse races

Lemon Drop Kid - DI = 2.62 CD = 0.79 Bred for 10 furlongs

Victory Gallop - DI = 3.27 CD = 0.81 Bred for a mile and 70

Touch Gold - DI = 1.82 CD = 0.46 Bred for 12 furlongs

So of the past 10 years, 1/2 of the horses were bred for 10 f or beyond.

I guess this means that pedigree really has nothing to do with the Belmont!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it.

The distance is fine with him from a pedigree standpoint---his father has sired a Belmont Stakes winner--and his mother won a minor stake at the distance of 12 furlongs (albeit on turf)

However, off of recent form, which trumps pedigree, he never really shows a race that indicates the 2.5 furlong stretchout from 9.5 furlongs to 12 furlongs will be to his benefit...if anything, it would figure to play against him, unless he is able to relax on an uncontested lead...in which case he would be VERY dangerous.

Dosage numbers are cooky....and they give me a headache. Unlike a very helpful tool like speed figures--the logic behind them isn't that sound at all...and IMO, they are fairly useless.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm suspect of Curlin's ability to get 12F

I am more suspicious of Asmussen's ability to train a horse properly for 12f. The man comes from the SW QH tradition, like Baffert and Lukas, who depended on the horse's innate talent and class to carry it a distance rather than proper conditioning for longer races.

[byalip]

I can't shake the vision of Came Home winning the Pacific Classic when it comes to questioning whether or not Hard Spun has what it takes for the Belmont.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I am more suspicious of Asmussen's ability to train a horse properly for 12f. The man comes from the SW QH tradition, like Baffert and Lukas, who depended on the horse's innate talent and class to carry it a distance rather than proper conditioning for longer races.

I laughed! Too funny.

Culin hasn't been asked to a do a thing in the morning since Asmussen got him...he's basically trained him for stamina and endurance since the moment he got him.

When he got the horse about three and a half months ago, he got a horse who'd just won a MSW sprint race in wire-to-wire fashion, in supersonic time.

Through Asmussen's "Quarter horse training" -- he's managed to turn what looked like a speed sprinter/miler, into a deep closing router....who was 13 lengths off the pace in the Preakness, inspite of constant urging from his rider to try to get him to pick it up.

[Pedigree Ann]

Dosage is garbage. Garbage in, garbage out.

Check out Conduit Mare Profiles for these horses, which appear at the bottom of the pedigrees for subscribers at PedQuery. Curlin's has 9 presences on the speed wing, and 13 in the stamina wing. Hard Spun has 10 on the speed side and 13 on the stamina side.

Another thing to note is the GSV (Genetic Strength Value), developed by the man behind the matings that produced St. Jovite and Farda Amiga, etc. Curlin's is 69.80 and Hard Spun's is 79.96; the higher the number, the better quality the pedigree is for classic distances. (Teuflesberg, in contrast, has a GSV of 58.94).

If you have to have numbers rather than a reasoned analysis of the entire pedigree, I suggest both of these in concert as a replacement for the deeply flawed Roman Dosage numbers.

[byalip]

Pedigree Ann--

You may think dosage is gargage, but missing out on the chance for this brilliant insight was well worth all the ciphering:

Digger - DI 4.33 CD 1.00 - Bred for eating and pooping

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When he got the horse about three and a half months ago, he got a horse who'd just won a MSW sprint race in wire-to-wire fashion, in supersonic time.

Through Asmussen's "Quarter horse training" -- he's managed to turn what looked like a speed sprinter/miler, into a deep closing router....who was 13 lengths off the pace in the Preakness, inspite of constant urging from his rider to try to get him to pick it up.

Many horses who are not sprinter/milers win their debuts over sprint distances and do so brilliantly because of their superior class. Swaps, Nashua, Tom Fool, Affirmed, Buckpasser, are those who come to the mind of this old fogey and they managed a distance beyond 10f just fine.

[byalip]

PedigreeA--

While Asmussen is suspect of certain "things", winning races isn't one of them. Your notion that he's not a route trainer--and basically a quarterhorse trainer-- is just plain silly.

Read the current issue of The Bloodhorse for a background story about Asmussen.

Here's the Cliff's Notes version:
"Not only has Steve Asmussen broken the single season record for wins by a trainer, he is one of only three trainers to win 400 races in a year, the others being Jack Van Berg and Scott Lake. As of November 20, 2004, he was at 497 wins and counting. When he broke the record he was third in earnings behind Todd Pletcher and Bobby Frankel, and his horses were winning 24% of the time, and finishing in the top three 55% of the time."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Many horses who are not sprinter/milers win their debuts over sprint distances and do so brilliantly because of their superior class. Swaps, Nashua, Tom Fool, Affirmed, Buckpasser, are those who come to the mind of this old fogey and they managed a distance beyond 10f just fine.

Has one ever gone from winning his debut wire-to-wire sprinting....getting a better figure than a couple of Graded Stakes around one turn on the same card...and than won a race just three months later from 13 lengths off the pace....being that far out of it, at 9.5 furlongs, inspite of their jockey urging them to put them in the race?

Anyway...the fact that Asmussen once came from a quarter horse background will have nothing to do with this horses ability to see out the distance Saturday.

He's done a remarkable job of training (prehaps I should say draining) the speed out of him so far. It's hard to argue with the results he's got from doing it though.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's done a remarkable job of training (prehaps I should say draining) the speed out of him so far. .

This is a bizarre comment. The speed is still there, it is merely being used at a different time during the race.