my derby top 10.. - Page 3

POINTGIVEN1985 · #41 03-23-2007, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

why ? because he won a weak allowance race ? what is wrong with you ?

POINTGIVEN1985 · #42 03-23-2007, 05:29 PM

this is unreal reading these responses, do any of you really belive this horse is better then street sense any given saturday nobiz circular quay great hunter notional scat daddy adore the gold stormello forfathers hard spun , hes not better then 1 horse i named, and i could name about 10 more including 3 fillies

POINTGIVEN1985 · #43 03-23-2007, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That got me thinking. How much money would you have to have available for betting horses (or devoted to horses and other roughly similar investments), to justify what would be considered a "correct" bet on Chelokee of $1000 at 5000-1 odds?

I think Ed Thorp showed that the correct "Kelly" bet was Bankroll*%ADV/odds. ("%ADV" is percent advantage, your expected return on the bet) For a $1000 bet, then, 1000=Bankroll*%ADV/5000. Therefore, Bankroll*%ADV would have to equal 5 million.

If fair odds on Chelokee are as "low" as 250-1, then %ADV is (5000/250) -1 = 19. (or 1900%) Therefore, you'd need a 5000000/19 = $263,000 bankroll to justify that $1000 bet at 5000-1.

But if fair odds on Chelokee are even lower, say 75-1, then a 77K bankroll would be more than enough.

And yes, I'm sure by now you are thinking that "no, there is no end to this idiocy!"

--Dunbar

listen put all the numbers up you want, would you put that kind of money on a horse that more then likely wont even make the race ?

blackthroatedwind · #44 03-23-2007, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

why ? because he won a weak allowance race ? what is wrong with you ?

I have a myriad of problems, no doubt, but one of them is not a failure to understand odds. Sadly I now know that you don't understand odds....hopefully I won't learn any more of your problems in the future.

brianwspencer · #45 03-23-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

forfathers

lol in every way.

blackthroatedwind · #46 03-23-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

this is unreal reading these responses, do any of you really belive this horse is better then street sense any given saturday nobiz circular quay great hunter notional scat daddy adore the gold stormello forfathers hard spun , hes not better then 1 horse i named, and i could name about 10 more including 3 fillies

I hadn't realized that you were offering more than 5000-1 on all those horses.

I'll be pulling my lear jet, I JUST bought it, into Schenectady momentarily.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #47 03-23-2007, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hadn't realized that you were offering more than 5000-1 on all those horses.

I'll be pulling my lear jet, I JUST bought it, into Schenectady momentarily.

can u read ? at no point did i offer a thing i said i would not take him at those odds, and i wouldnt im sticking by that, way way to much hype for a horse who has done nothing

blackthroatedwind · #48 03-23-2007, 05:57 PM

Unfortunately I can read.

randallscott35 · #49 03-23-2007, 06:04 PM

Couple of points from reading this thread. First, I agree with Chuck about Great Hunter. I'm not that interested in anyone else at this point....Also agree with Andy about Scat Daddy although I said that about everyone from the FOY. They are all slowish. And Scat Daddy needs to be ridden b/c he's a grinder and he isn't even a fast grinder at that. He is a poor man's Limehouse who was able to finish 4th in a bad crop. This one couldn't manage that.

As for the 5000-1 comment, I'm sure Pointgiven didn't realize what he was saying so I'm not going to pile on.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #50 03-23-2007, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Unfortunately I can read.

well did i offer that or did i just say i wouldnt take it ? what is the big deal ? i dont like the horse i think he is a third tier horse, maybe lower, i like the horse he beat alot better, for you reppo... i was just trying to point out my dislike for him, i feel he's overated, i dont see what the big deal is

POINTGIVEN1985 · #51 03-23-2007, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Couple of points from reading this thread. First, I agree with Chuck about Great Hunter. I'm not that interested in anyone else at this point....Also agree with Andy about Scat Daddy although I said that about everyone from the FOY. They are all slowish. And Scat Daddy needs to be ridden b/c he's a grinder and he isn't even a fast grinder at that. He is a poor man's Limehouse who was able to finish 4th in a bad crop. This one couldn't manage that.

As for the 5000-1 comment, I'm sure Pointgiven didn't realize what he was saying so I'm not going to pile on.

i did realize what i was saying, if you offered me those odds now, i would not take them. its my opinion i think the horse has 0 shot to win the derby

randallscott35 · #52 03-23-2007, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i did realize what i was saying, if you offered me those odds now, i would not take them. its my opinion i think the horse has 0 shot to win the derby

But PG (what is your actual first name so its easier to respond if you don't mind) 5000-1 is not necessary to get action. As others said you could get the same action for 250-1. I know you aren't serious to taking bets b/c no one here thinks you have the bank for it. But I don't like the horses chances but I'd be inclined to bet at those odds because they aren't realistic.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #53 03-23-2007, 07:07 PM

my name is dominick, and i never said i had that kind of bankroll to take 5000-1 on something, i doubt anyone on here does

outofthebox · #54 03-23-2007, 07:13 PM

War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #55 03-23-2007, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

giacomo and monarchos were at least both stakes placed at this point

blackthroatedwind · #56 03-23-2007, 07:24 PM

The bottom line is you said you wouldn't bet the horse at 5000-1, which is exceedingly foolish, as anytime you can take even five times the actual chances of any horse winning it is worth it to take the bet. If nothing else you can find a way to arbitrage the bet to make money. Instead of arguing with everyone that disagrees with you, like refusing to listen to the very sound logic that tried to lead you away from the worst sucker bet of 2007 ( Marina Market ), maybe you should at least occasionally think about what the other person is saying. Hell, even I do that on occasion.

blackthroatedwind · #57 03-23-2007, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

You guys are really emptying the barn at Turfway tomorrow.

ArlJim78 · #58 03-23-2007, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

giacomo and monarchos were at least both stakes placed at this point

Don't forget to call in tomorrow morning on DerbyTrail Live.

You should be able to come up with a few questions for the guests.

Cajungator26 · #59 03-23-2007, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Don't forget to call in tomorrow morning on DerbyTrail Live.

You should be able to come up with a few questions for the guests.

Yeah, I'd love to hear him tomorrow.

Call in, Dominick.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #60 03-23-2007, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line is you said you wouldn't bet the horse at 5000-1, which is exceedingly foolish, as anytime you can take even five times the actual chances of any horse winning it is worth it to take the bet. If nothing else you can find a way to arbitrage the bet to make money. Instead of arguing with everyone that disagrees with you, like refusing to listen to the very sound logic that tried to lead you away from the worst sucker bet of 2007 ( Marina Market ), maybe you should at least occasionally think about what the other person is saying. Hell, even I do that on occasion.

well i definitly see what your saying on that 1, im getting crushed " betting" the last 2 days