Circular Quay the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Thats what I think was funny after the Derby. The wet track thing popped up, and then the Preakness field was crushed. Good Lord look what the animal did at Belmont. He got pushed hard by two diff. very good horses and still barely went down. Smarty ran on any dirt you gave him.

CQ is gonna need a Giacomo set up and I dont see that happening for a while. Some lessons were learned in that burn up that have not had time to become a passing memories.

Every year there is a large majority of people that begin questioning the derby winner's worth as a racehorse.

It always starts with "who did he really beat?" And then is attributed to pace factors, track bias, other horses being sore/too tired/too used up in preps, etc....

This will continue as long as the derby is conducted. It happens in England too. "Epsom Derby field considered weakest in 10 years, etc..."

Crazy stuff. Smarty Jones beat the pants off of every horse he faced but one. And he was beat fair and square that day. The connections knew the Belmont was 1 1/2 miles, and he was beaten because there was a better horse at that distance on that particular day. End of story in my opinion.

Birdstone beat him.

Regardless of what Rock Hard Ten or Eddington did in the race.

But that ****er Smarty Jones sure did beat every one else like a drum, and looked good doing it.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not particularly a Circular Quay fan, but he is not nearly as much of a plodder as Giacomo. CQ basically took the lead at the 3/16 of the La Derby. I think more tactical speed may be found in that horse. It definitely can't hurt down the line.

And, yes, you're right, Smarty was going to win that Derby rain or shine. He had the perfect target in front of him who couldn't get classic distances.

NT

After I watched the Bashford Manor stakes (CQ's 2nd start) I compared him to Afleet Alex because of the sudden burst of speed he showed. I've cooled off that comparison since, but I agree he does have tactical speed, and doesn't need the race to fall apart to get a piece.

And being that the derby field is now just about guaranteed to be a full field of 20 just about every year, I think the pace is always going to be fast up front. Too many jocks fear falling behind a wall of horses and losing all chance of getting good position.

Originally Posted by moodwalker

Birdstone beat him.

Regardless of what Rock Hard Ten or Eddington did in the race.

But that ****er Smarty Jones sure did beat every one else like a drum, and looked good doing it.

That race was the coronation of a great horse. Exactly because of the tactics of Bailey on Eddington and RHT. They threw a race to beat a champ.
That race showed how great Smarty really was. That was the moment I had total respect for an animal that I doubted before the Derby.

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

After I watched the Bashford Manor stakes (CQ's 2nd start) I compared him to Afleet Alex because of the sudden burst of speed he showed. I've cooled off that comparison since, but I agree he does have tactical speed, and doesn't need the race to fall apart to get a piece.

And being that the derby field is now just about guaranteed to be a full field of 20 just about every year, I think the pace is always going to be fast up front. Too many jocks fear falling behind a wall of horses and losing all chance of getting good position.

There are too many horses right now that can run closer to the pace than CQ and have a great turn of foot in the stretch. Any Given Sat., Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, Street Sense... too many at this point. CQ hopes they dont make it to May.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by moodwalker

He was beat fair and square that day. The connections knew the Belmont was 1 1/2 miles, and he was beaten because there was a better horse at that distance on that particular day. End of story in my opinion.

Birdstone beat him.

Regardless of what Rock Hard Ten or Eddington did in the race.

I don't want to start another thread about this race (we have had plenty) but I just want to say that I agree with you 100%. I know it is popular to say that Bailey is the one who beat Smarty that day, but I do not see it that way at all. I am a big fan of Smarty, but at 12f on a dry track, Birdstone was in my opinion, the better horse. At 10f or less, or on an off-track, SJ was clearly better. If it had rained that day like it was supposed to they were going to scratch Birdstone and SJ would have won it.
People who say that Bailey should have let an odds-on favorite cruise loose on the lead without pressure....well that just doesn't make sense to me.
Anyway, I don't want to start the whole argument again....it was just nice to hear someone agree with me on this.....because I don't think many do.

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't want to start another thread about this race (we have had plenty) but I just want to say that I agree with you 100%. I know it is popular to say that Bailey is the one who beat Smarty that day, but I do not see it that way at all. I am a big fan of Smarty, but at 12f on a dry track, Birdstone was in my opinion, the better horse. At 10f or less, or on an off-track, SJ was clearly better. If it had rained that day like it was supposed to they were going to scratch Birdstone and SJ would have won it.
People who say that Bailey should have let an odds-on favorite cruise loose on the lead without pressure....well that just doesn't make sense to me.
Anyway, I don't want to start the whole argument again....it was just nice to hear someone agree with me on this.....because I don't think many do.

Beat your horse to death while your halfway thru the last turn? Thats not trying to win. Thats killing a horse. I just dont see a jock killing a horse at Belmont that far from home. And this is coming from someone that was not a great fan until after these races.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Beat your horse to death while your halfway thru the last turn? Thats not trying to win. Thats killing a horse. I just dont see a jock killing a horse at Belmont that far from home. And this is coming from someone that was not a great fan until after these races.

Anywhere else but here in the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line, and Bailey is just making the favorite earn it the hard way.

You see good horses get loose on the lead a lot in Australia, and it usually never fails that some jock will fly around horses to come up and pressure the leader. Pressure will usually wilt most front runners, the great ones stay on and fight. I think Smarty showed a lot of fight that day, and if the Belmont were 1 7/16 miles he would be an undefeated Triple Crown champion.

An example of this is Sunline, the New Zealand mare who won 13 Group One races in three countries.

She almost always led, and every once in a while they would get her with a lot of pressure. Especially when going 1 1/4 miles.

But she still won two Cox Plates and won one with pressure for every step except when the hit the stretch and she spurted.

Another example of one who could go to the front and stay under pressure is Might And Power (another Aussie)

I stole this description from wikipedia, but it is better to watch it.

"On Melbourne Cup day several large bets were wagered on Might and Power despite a quality field including 1995 Cup Winner Doriemus, AJC Derby and LKS MacKinnon Stakes winner Ebony Grosve, and a strong contingent of internationals. At starting time he was 7-2 favourite. During the race Cassidy again took Might and Power to the lead. In an extraordinary display, Might And Power withstood three distinct waves of challenges - Crying Game at the 1600 m point, Linesman on the home turn, and Doriemus over the final 200 m. Might and Power shook off Linesman and led by more than two lengths with 300 m left to run but in the last 200 m Doriemus closed strongly. Edging closer and closer, Doriemus appeared likely to score with 50 m to go but Might And Power found again in the final strides. In a thrilling finish, there was little between the two horses, and Greg Hall, on Doriemus, waved his whip in salute after crossing the line but the photo showed Might and Power had held on for the victory.
After this stirring win Might and Power was acclaimed the best stayer in the world and was sent for a spell."

Check out the link to this victory.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ItMRKzUd2yE

[magic_idol]

Might And Power was a freak his knockers used to call him 1 paced & hell yeah he was but what a pace you could see the horse break the hearts of all the oppositon & the jockeys, I used to tear up when he ran because he just didnt beat the other horses he destroyed them , No Mercy comes to mind.
No one could beat him in distances because he dictated the race abit like a sprinter & a long distance runner jockeys would try all sorts of tactics to defeat him but its pretty hard to sprint 2 miles
Sunline was a mare that started out at short distances but had such huge talent she progressed to long distance a very nuggety strong type mare with a bad temperament won 9 million in prize money & was around the era of great stoushes with Northerly, Funnily enough Sunline went to stud & produced a foal by Zabeel might & powers sire just sold for 2 million.
Both lines are more the English bloodline & both horses are distinctly different looking as compared to American horses

[Scurlogue Champ]

I wish I could find a link to the 2000 Cox Plate where Sunline absolutely pisses on the field at the turn and draws off....

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by moodwalker

Anywhere else but here in the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line, and Bailey is just making the favorite earn it the hard way.

Yes! To me this is what it all boils down to.
I know that the majority of people agree with pgardn that the smart thing for Bailey to do for his own horse's chances would be to allow an undefeated odds-on favorite to have a completely uncontested lead, but I just don't agree with that. I think he was trying to beat Smarty because he felt that he was the horse to beat.
I have always thought that especially the way Eddington lost all interest in the race down the backstretch in his previous start (the Preakness) may also have had something to do with the agressiveness of Bailey's ride that day.
Oh well, it was 3 years ago. Nobody is going to convince anybody of anything at this point either way.
Perhaps we should get back to discussing how CQ could not possibly lose the Derby. LOL.

[MisterB]

This thread is funny

[JJP]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

I can think of a few besides Unbridled. Strike the Gold, Grindstone, Giacomo, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Sea Hero, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Gato Del Sol and Pleasant Colony were all closers who won the Derby,

As for CQ, if he doesn't win, it won't be because his style, IMO. I don't think he's Pletcher's best 3YO, let alone the nations best.

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yes! To me this is what it all boils down to.
I know that the majority of people agree with pgardn that the smart thing for Bailey to do for his own horse's chances would be to allow an undefeated odds-on favorite to have a completely uncontested lead, but I just don't agree with that. I think he was trying to beat Smarty because he felt that he was the horse to beat.
I have always thought that especially the way Eddington lost all interest in the race down the backstretch in his previous start (the Preakness) may also have had something to do with the agressiveness of Bailey's ride that day.
Oh well, it was 3 years ago. Nobody is going to convince anybody of anything at this point either way.
Perhaps we should get back to discussing how CQ could not possibly lose the Derby. LOL.

Well I do think most of us believe it was a great effort by Smarty. I just think Smarty was the best horse in the race. And the best horse in the race does not necessarily win.

On CQ... I like the horse. I think as it stands right now, there are a number of horses that have his closing ability that will be closer to the pace than he will be. Too many horses at this point. But like I said, they could drop out. This is all conjecture of course from way far out, but at this time, I dont see this very good horse doing it the Derby. Earlier I liked this horse more than Scat Daddy at 1.25 f... now I dont. I reserve the right to change my stance as circumstances change. And I thank you.

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

lol the year of Doug O'neill thats one of the funniest things ive ever heard, Doug O'neill will not do squat outside of southern california thats a fact

He is relatively new outside of California. Didn't he have the winner of the BC Sprint? You will look foolish for your comments about him when he beats Pletcher for some of the big ones. Maybe he will finally take an Eclipse from Todd. I would love to see that. By the way, I am from the East Coast, so I am not prejudiced in my remarks.