Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10) - Page 3

robfla · #41 02-05-2008, 01:42 PM

OAKS POOL #1

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 A to the Croft McPeek Kenneth G 121 LA 30-1
2 2 American County Romans Dale 121 L 30-1
3 3 Backseat Rhythm Reynolds Patrick L 121 L 20-1
4 4 Bsharpsonata Salzman Timothy 121 L 30-1
5 5 By the Light Dutrow, Jr. R E 121 L 15-1
6 6 C J's Leelee McPeek Kenneth G 121 L 30-1
7 7 Country Star Frankel Robert 121 BL 8-1
8 8 Eight Belles Jones J Larry 121 L 30-1
9 9 Final Fling Mullins Jeff 121 BL 20-1
10 10 Game Face Pletcher Todd A 121 L 20-1
11 11 Golden Doc A Abrams Barry 121 BL 20-1
12 12 Grace Anatomy O'Neill Doug 121 BL 30-1
13 13 Grace and Power Klesaris Steve 121 BL 30-1
14 14 Indian Blessing Baffert Bob 121 BL 8-1
15 15 Izarra McAnally Ronald 121 BL 50-1
16 16 Jolie the Cat Asmussen Steven M 121 L 30-1
17 17 Proud Spell Jones J Larry 121 LA 12-1
18 18 Pure Clan Holthus Robert E 121 L 12-1
19 19 Rated Fiesty Asmussen Steven M 121 L 20-1
20 20 Sea Chanter Pletcher Todd A 121 BL 20-1
21 21 Tasha's Miracle Sadler John W 121 L 20-1
22 22 Tizaqueena Stidham Michael 121 L 50-1
23 23 Turn Away Frankel Robert 121 BL 20-1
24 24 All Other Three Year Old Fillies Baffert Bob 121 5-2

hoovesupsideyourhead · #42 02-05-2008, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

OAKS POOL #1

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 A to the Croft McPeek Kenneth G 121 LA 30-1
2 2 American County Romans Dale 121 L 30-1
3 3 Backseat Rhythm Reynolds Patrick L 121 L 20-1
4 4 Bsharpsonata Salzman Timothy 121 L 30-1
5 5 By the Light Dutrow, Jr. R E 121 L 15-1
6 6 C J's Leelee McPeek Kenneth G 121 L 30-1
7 7 Country Star Frankel Robert 121 BL 8-1
8 8 Eight Belles Jones J Larry 121 L 30-1
9 9 Final Fling Mullins Jeff 121 BL 20-1
10 10 Game Face Pletcher Todd A 121 L 20-1
11 11 Golden Doc A Abrams Barry 121 BL 20-1
12 12 Grace Anatomy O'Neill Doug 121 BL 30-1
13 13 Grace and Power Klesaris Steve 121 BL 30-1
14 14 Indian Blessing Baffert Bob 121 BL 8-1
15 15 Izarra McAnally Ronald 121 BL 50-1
16 16 Jolie the Cat Asmussen Steven M 121 L 30-1
17 17 Proud Spell Jones J Larry 121 LA 12-1
18 18 Pure Clan Holthus Robert E 121 L 12-1
19 19 Rated Fiesty Asmussen Steven M 121 L 20-1
20 20 Sea Chanter Pletcher Todd A 121 BL 20-1
21 21 Tasha's Miracle Sadler John W 121 L 20-1
22 22 Tizaqueena Stidham Michael 121 L 50-1
23 23 Turn Away Frankel Robert 121 BL 20-1
24 24 All Other Three Year Old Fillies Baffert Bob 121 5-2

1/2 and 14...............

Scav · #43 02-05-2008, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

I don't know, it is a free $25 and I have to play it, I think he will at least get there...

If you had to play $25 on the wager, one bet, who would you do? I'll consider it, and give you a 10% royalty if it happens, and don't give me no 4/1 shot.....

miraja2 · #44 02-05-2008, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

There is no doubt that he was not overwhelmingly fast as a 2yo, and would need to improve quite a bit to win a G1 Classic, but they all do at this point.
It just seems like a big crapshoot to me right now.
You are absolutely right about him having a very good trip at CD, but Blackberry Road's was pretty good too, and that one saved a lot of ground compared to Anak Nakal who was 4-wide around the second turn.
His pedigree also points to a colt that could certainly improve with both age and added distance. His connections also seem pretty high on him and since he already has the earnings to get in, they can chart whatever course they choose.
I am not going to place a future wager on him, b/c the price probably won't be right, but if I had a free $25 wager like Scav, I think he would probably be the way I would go.
I think the other interesting horse in this futures process might actually be War Pass. His pedigree and running style sure don't look like a Derby winner, but if enough people feel this way - or if they just fall in love with whomever wins this Saturday - might it actually be possible to get a halfway decent price on seemingly the most talented animal in the crop?

Round Pen · #45 02-05-2008, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I agree. Still foggy and early.
I like Denis of Cork, not sure if he will be a big time horse or just a nice horse... I give him a little slack for that last race. With the track being off, Borel kind of sacraficed his usuall style to just win the race. Borel felt he was much the best, and he did the job, although it was workman-like and not flashy. I think it would have appeared much more impressive had the track been fast. Borel supposedly has commited to Turf War, and a jockey choice would be key for DoC. Who else can time and rally so well as Borel? Leparoux isn't terrible, but is he a Derby jockey?

Borel had his choice between Turf War and DOC and yes he did Choose to ride turf War in the Southwest Simply stated he thinks Turf War is a better horse.

SniperSB23 · #46 02-05-2008, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Borel had his choice between Turf War and DOC and yes he did Choose to ride turf War in the Southwest Simply stated he thinks Turf War is a better horse.

No he didn't. He (his agent) said it was an extremely tough call but that Turf War already had the earnings to get in so he went with him.

I'm a big fan of Denis of Cork but his last did leave a lot to be desired. The race was really slow but he was 4 wide and did close off a really slow pace to win so it wasn't a total disaster. Looking forward to seeing him in the Southwest where we should learn a lot about him.

Cajungator26 · #47 02-05-2008, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

No he didn't. He (his agent) said it was an extremely tough call but that Turf War already had the earnings to get in so he went with him.

I'm a big fan of Denis of Cork but his last did leave a lot to be desired. The race was really slow but he was 4 wide and did close off a really slow pace to win so it wasn't a total disaster. Looking forward to seeing him in the Southwest where we should learn a lot about him.

Turf War is a better horse because he's a full brother to Grasshopper.

I'm kidding of course.

SniperSB23 · #48 02-05-2008, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Turf War is a better horse because he's a full brother to Grasshopper.

I'm kidding of course.

I love Grasshopper but am still undecided on Turf War. He may just be a far better horse on dirt or he may have just benefited from a total pace meltdown in the Delta Jackpot. Of course, I guess those aren't really mutually exclusive so he could be both. Am looking forward to his next start as well but my gut feeling says he will disappoint.

blackthroatedwind · #49 02-05-2008, 07:19 PM

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

SniperSB23 · #50 02-05-2008, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

He's barely raced but I liked him long before Saratoga so he must have run well enough somewhere as a 2yo to grab my interest. I think the Travers took a lot of him and they probably brought him back a little quick in the Super Derby which led to them giving him another rest. We'll find out a lot this weekend in the Mineshaft. I think he'll roll but we'll have to wait and see. If he doesn't then your Saratoga theory has some more merit.

Round Pen · #51 02-05-2008, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

No he didn't. He (his agent) said it was an extremely tough call but that Turf War already had the earnings to get in so he went with him.

I'm a big fan of Denis of Cork but his last did leave a lot to be desired. The race was really slow but he was 4 wide and did close off a really slow pace to win so it wasn't a total disaster. Looking forward to seeing him in the Southwest where we should learn a lot about him.

Funny Jerry told us Calvin thought Turf War was a better horse right now

Bobby Fischer · #52 02-05-2008, 07:26 PM

as of today there is no horse that I would say is a lock to finish top 3 in the derby.

Zfortune is the most impressive so far on dirt. I dislike his pedigree a lot. IMO he is a product of good training. Horse like that tend to fold when the class is at it its highest. Siphons are prone to be cheap speed, but this one sold for more, and he has the look of a route distance horse under Asmussen.

Cowboy Cal is the other who really caught my eye. How is he going to run on the dirt? How about a few lengths off the pace on the dirt? can he save ground and take a little bit of kickback?

Anak Nakaal looks good as well. Does he have that champion talent? Has shown flashes but appears to still have room to grow.

Court Vision has done nothing wrong. He isn't a runt, but he isn't exactly eye catching...

Then there are a lot of others who have some potential to enter the mix. I would like to see all of them do well, and make for a great prep season

blackthroatedwind · #53 02-05-2008, 07:26 PM

You need to take yourself out of the equation, take a real look at his pps, and see the huge disparity between his performances at Saratoga, and elsewhere.

Cajungator26 · #54 02-05-2008, 07:28 PM

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

Danzig · #55 02-05-2008, 07:28 PM

golden yank seems to be getting a lot of attention here at oaklawn. whether warranted or not, i don't know.
maybe chuck could give some insight into that horse, and whether the blurbs i keep seeing on him in the gazette have a reason for existing....

blackthroatedwind · #56 02-05-2008, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

SniperSB23 · #57 02-05-2008, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You need to take yourself out of the equation, take a real look at his pps, and see the huge disparity between his performances at Saratoga, and elsewhere.

He ran well to break his maiden around two turns at Churchill. His first two races back were at 6 and 7 furlongs which is hardly his optimal distance but he still managed a win and a 3rd place performance. I've already said the Super Derby was probably too quick to come back. If he runs fresh around two turns in the Mineshaft this weekend and doesn't run well then I'm with you on the Saratoga thing. Until then though I don't think we have adequate information to reach that conclusion based on 2yo form and some sprints. And besides, with the lack of G1s for older males, winning the Whitney and Woodward could be enough to win champion older male if a 3yo wins the Classic (see 2007) so there are a lot worse things than to be a Saratoga specialist.

Cajungator26 · #58 02-05-2008, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

Yep... good to have something to look forward to at this point.

blackthroatedwind · #59 02-05-2008, 07:38 PM

My initial comments were an exaggeration. However, his non-Saratoga races are decidedly worse than his Saratoga races and until he proves otherwise I think he is very much a bet against.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #60 02-05-2008, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?

I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick.

jay you get a "be nice"..anyone that has a scientific opinion that its the CONNECTIONS betting on the last tick..has a vivid imagination.