Discreet Cat's Beyer was a 115

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Revolution

Ghostzapper retired with a grand total of 4 grade 1 wins in 4 years of racing.

Invasor won that many this year alone.

Discreet Cat will likely finish with 5 or 6 in 3 years of racing. He has to win them though or obviously he is not an all-time great. He would likely win the Dubai Classic, Breeders Cup Classic, Met Mile type race, Whitney, and JCGC and have to beat Invasor to do it all. Not easy, but if he does it, he is an all-time great.

I agree with that. But he still has to do it.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Just pointing it out Andy. As I've said many times on here, I believe Zapper and Mineshaft were the 2 best horses since Spec Bid. Obviously Zapper was a unique and dynamic a horse as you are going to see....And the way Discreet runs is similar at least so far.

In that photo was the LAST time you'll EVER get 5-1 on him again!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I love how you are already giving DC multiple grade 1 wins next year. Nothing like speculation. Sorry if I'm not ready to give him HOY for next year, not just yet.

I am confused, Discreet Cat ( and for that matter NoBizlikeshowbiz ) didn't even run at Aqueduct yesterday....or at least that's what Revolution's alter ego George Washington told us last week.

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am confused, Discreet Cat ( and for that matter NoBizlikeshowbiz ) didn't even run at Aqueduct yesterday....or at least that's what Revolution's alter ego George Washington told us last week.

If I had their money I wouldn't be here wasting my time talking to you.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Revolution

If I had their money I wouldn't be here wasting my time talking to you.

Spoken like a true genius.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Oh Lord, DaHoss this is the same guy that lectured us about more being in Bern's tank because of so called hand rides.
Will say this just one more time, because obviously some people don't get it yet.
On a car trip 13 years ago I was listening to a Ragozin seminar on audio tape(I know many and most here use Thorograph, and I'm sure jerry Brown has done the same study, but since I have never heard it I am using Rag semianr I DID hear as point of story), Friedman was the guy doing it and I don't remember much else of teh tape but one thing really stuck and resinated with me that I've used with great success since then in asessing races. I, also, used to watch horses win "eased up" or under hand rides, and say and beleive that the horse would run even faster when pushed.
The Ragozin guys did a study and found that almost all horse ran lifetime tops in these "easy wins". It was a total fallacy that when "pushed" they would run faster.
Easy wins ar a result of optimimum energy distribution, being able to run at the speed you wanna run and moving when you wanna move.
Dc ran a great race yesterday, but he had an ideal setup and was asked to run the last part and thats when he spurted away impressively.
To me the tank was fuilly used, he wasn't going any faster than he did, which is quite fast enough to beat just about anybody in training. But to say he could have gone faster and wasn't used is a joke.

Thanks Mike, that was some good info to read.

[todko]

Wow, I'm actually starting to have a little bit of faith in Beyer numbers. That 115 is about what DC deserves. The track was ridiculously fast.

DC is very good. Much better than Bernardini ever was or ever would be. DC's not Ghostzapper. And don't hold your breath about seeing him much next year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by todko

Wow, I'm actually starting to have a little bit of faith in Beyer numbers.

I am sure everyone at Beyer Associates is breathing a deep sigh of relief.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am sure everyone at Beyer Associates is breathing a deep sigh of relief.

Of course, there's still that little matter of the 116 (cough, cough) Beyer gave Sinister Minister in April.

Beyer better start offering a dental plan over there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Of course, there's still that little matter of the 116 (cough, cough) Beyer gave Sinister Minister in April.

Beyer better start offering a dental plan over there.

That was obviously a very difficult number to make...as is any that are made for races run, and won, over extremely biased surfaces. You are probably right, it should have been higher, but I guess one could say they erred on the side of caution.

Certainly any handicapper that expected that number to be even remotely duplicated on Derby Day is long broke and whatever he ( or she ) lost on that hopeless no shotter is inconsequential relative to their continued horseplaying losses.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Oh Lord, DaHoss this is the same guy that lectured us about more being in Bern's tank because of so called hand rides.
Will say this just one more time, because obviously some people don't get it yet.
On a car trip 13 years ago I was listening to a Ragozin seminar on audio tape(I know many and most here use Thorograph, and I'm sure jerry Brown has done the same study, but since I have never heard it I am using Rag semianr I DID hear as point of story), Friedman was the guy doing it and I don't remember much else of teh tape but one thing really stuck and resinated with me that I've used with great success since then in asessing races. I, also, used to watch horses win "eased up" or under hand rides, and say and beleive that the horse would run even faster when pushed.
The Ragozin guys did a study and found that almost all horse ran lifetime tops in these "easy wins". It was a total fallacy that when "pushed" they would run faster.
Easy wins ar a result of optimimum energy distribution, being able to run at the speed you wanna run and moving when you wanna move.
Dc ran a great race yesterday, but he had an ideal setup and was asked to run the last part and thats when he spurted away impressively.
To me the tank was fuilly used, he wasn't going any faster than he did, which is quite fast enough to beat just about anybody in training. But to say he could have gone faster and wasn't used is a joke.

it's called hitting your stride. as a runner, i was lucky enough to have done it a couple of times. no feeling like it in the world. like you can run all day, fast as you ever have, without losing your breath at all. i loved it when i did it, you're almost invincible! unless of course someone else does it at the same time!!
and believe me, the times i had it happen, i wasn't being pressured by another runner.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Oh Lord, DaHoss this is the same guy that lectured us about more being in Bern's tank because of so called hand rides.
Will say this just one more time, because obviously some people don't get it yet.
On a car trip 13 years ago I was listening to a Ragozin seminar on audio tape(I know many and most here use Thorograph, and I'm sure jerry Brown has done the same study, but since I have never heard it I am using Rag semianr I DID hear as point of story), Friedman was the guy doing it and I don't remember much else of teh tape but one thing really stuck and resinated with me that I've used with great success since then in asessing races. I, also, used to watch horses win "eased up" or under hand rides, and say and beleive that the horse would run even faster when pushed.
The Ragozin guys did a study and found that almost all horse ran lifetime tops in these "easy wins". It was a total fallacy that when "pushed" they would run faster.
Easy wins ar a result of optimimum energy distribution, being able to run at the speed you wanna run and moving when you wanna move.
Dc ran a great race yesterday, but he had an ideal setup and was asked to run the last part and thats when he spurted away impressively.
To me the tank was fuilly used, he wasn't going any faster than he did, which is quite fast enough to beat just about anybody in training. But to say he could have gone faster and wasn't used is a joke.

"O",
Thanks for posting this.
I agree completely.
If the tank is full, it goes..."moving when you wanna move".
If the tank is empty, no amount of stepping on the gas is going to make it go any faster.
In other words, as the old saying goes..."Makes no sense beating a dead horse."
DTS

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Of course, there's still that little matter of the 116 (cough, cough) Beyer gave Sinister Minister in April.

Beyer better start offering a dental plan over there.

The 116 wasn't necessarily "wrong", but never to ever be duplicated. As noted above by someone quoting Ragozin, horses run their best (sometimes freakish) numbers when they get the perfect setup, and that's exactly what Sinister Minister had as the lone speed in the race AND the Keeneland rail conveyor belt to boot. There wasn't a chance in the world he'd ever run back to that on Derby Day, or any other day for that matter.

Who cares what his beyer was. If he won and his beyer was 95 would that keep you from betting him in his next race? I don't think so. Beyers are one of the components that play a role in handicapping. Beyers coupled with times are a good tool.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Who cares what his beyer was. If he won and his beyer was 95 would that keep you from betting him in his next race? I don't think so. Beyers are one of the components that play a role in handicapping. Beyers coupled with times are a good tool.

Weren't you the one just saying that we shouldn't care about times? Do you even think about what you write anymore?

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Weren't you the one just saying that we shouldn't care about times? Do you even think about what you write anymore?

Its about a blend of things, in varying degrees of importance.
After the 3rd race on Saturday, which was laughable when those two "noble steeds" went 7f in rocketship time, I told the guy I was talking to that the Cigar would go in 32 and change easily.
Thats why I didn't join in the unending praise about the horse based on his raw time in the race.
I think that was pretty rational.
I think his sheet number will be in line with his last two races, still great, but not representing anything more than what he had already shown us.
What did impress me more than anything were the "gears" he showed.
His tractability and being able to start and stop on command were very impressive. It showed us that he has a fine mind, and that in teh heat of battle he can run as fast as he does when he has things his own way.
I do think the setup he got was as perfect as one could ever hope for.
By that I mean the speed horse who had seemingly no shot to win going out and doing the dirty work on Silver Train and forcing him to rush up and engage in blistering fractions on the inside.
Figures are 1/2 the equation, how they ACCOMPLISH the figure is the other half.
Euro seems to waver back and forth on everything, and most of what he posts is to try and get reactions out of folks and its tiresome.
Folks who can't seem to form and post enough intelligent thoughts who therefore go to the ole "I'll try and get a reaction out of people" posts are low on my list of "must read posters".

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its about a blend of things, in varying degrees of importance.
After the 3rd race on Saturday, which was laughable when those two "noble steeds" went 7f in rocketship time, I told the guy I was talking to that the Cigar would go in 32 and change easily.
Thats why I didn't join in the unending praise about the horse based on his raw time in the race.
I think that was pretty rational.
I think his sheet number will be in line with his last two races, still great, but not representing anything more than what he had already shown us.
What did impress me more than anything were the "gears" he showed.
His tractability and being able to start and stop on command were very impressive. It showed us that he has a fine mind, and that in teh heat of battle he can run as fast as he does when he has things his own way.
I do think the setup he got was as perfect as one could ever hope for.
By that I mean the speed horse who had seemingly no shot to win going out and doing the dirty work on Silver Train and forcing him to rush up and engage in blistering fractions on the inside.
Figures are 1/2 the equation, how they ACCOMPLISH the figure is the other half.
Euro seems to waver back and forth on everything, and most of what he posts is to try and get reactions out of folks and its tiresome.
Folks who can't seem to form and post enough intelligent thoughts who therefore go to the ole "I'll try and get a reaction out of people" posts are low on my list of "must read posters".

Tracks are always super fast when a horse sets a track record. Aqueduct was on Saturday and I'd bet it was also super fast the day Easy Goer ran in 1989. It can be weather or the way they work the track or, most likely, both but that's what I've always seen.

I just wish Gomez had pushed a little more late or that the others had held on a 1/16th more or whatever and that the final time was 1/5 faster. I know the colt was was going as fast as he could, but in an all out drive, who knows? It's not inconceiveable that under greater pressure DC could have responded and gone a click faster. At the same time, the 3rd qtr really put him into his fastest gear and he just maintained it to the wire, so maybe not.

All I know is they run a lot of mile races on the Aqueduct main and there have been plenty of super fast tracks there for G1 mile races over the years.

Horse ran incredible. Good enough for me.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Tracks are always super fast when a horse sets a track record. Aqueduct was on Saturday and I'd bet it was also super fast the day Easy Goer ran in 1989. It can be weather or the way they work the track or, most likely, both but that's what I've always seen.

I just wish Gomez had pushed a little more late or that the others had held on a 1/16th more or whatever and that the final time was 1/5 faster. I know the colt was was going as fast as he could, but in an all out drive, who knows? It's not inconceiveable that under greater pressure DC could have responded and gone a click faster. At the same time, the 3rd qtr really put him into his fastest gear and he just maintained it to the wire, so maybe not.

All I know is they run a lot of mile races on the Aqueduct main and there have been plenty of super fast tracks there for G1 mile races over the years.

Horse ran incredible. Good enough for me.

Stud they DON'T run as many miles as you would think at the highest level.
They run the Gotham(other than Easy Goer, three year olds don't approach that mark that early in the season, and yes I remember the day EAsy Goer ran his race and the track was just as fast, if not faster).
The Westchester is run each year, but thats not a grade one and doesn't draw grade one milers.
The only big mile race thats run at Aqueduct for elders is the Cigar, formerly the NYRA mile.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stud they DON'T run as many miles as you would think at the highest level.
They run the Gotham(other than Easy Goer, three year olds don't approach that mark that early in the season, and yes I remember the day EAsy Goer ran his race and the track was just as fast, if not faster).
The Westchester is run each year, but thats not a grade one and doesn't draw grade one milers.
The only big mile race thats run at Aqueduct for elders is the Cigar, formerly the NYRA mile.

I'm pretty sure the Westchester is usually run at Belmont.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm pretty sure the Westchester is usually run at Belmont.

It used to be Aqueduct Joey, and was for a long time. I'll check but I think its still Aqueduct.
I'm not at all in any way demeaning DC's performance by stating this.
I just happen to get sick to my stomach when they make a track so fast as they did on Saturday.
It makes it so very hard to gauge performances.
I wanted to post a " this is why Nobiz got all the media hype" thread in regards to his Champagne that you and I both gushed over and said he was the better horse.
But my enthusiam about him, though still very high, was tempered by the fact that I dunno what he proved either. He loped behind moderate fractions and hit them with a burst of speed that on a track like that is gonna win you the race.
I'd have liked it a lot better had the track been honest and he had done the same thing.
I still think hes the goods, but have to wait until spring to confirm it in my mind now.