9/5 (CD): Derby Trail Probables ~ 11 for Preakness with Swiss

[Kasept]

6/20 (BEL): Belmont Stakes (9f) 150-60-30-15

Tiz the Law (Tagg)
Sole Volante (Biancone)
Basin (Asmussen)
Farmington Road (Pletcher)
Dr. Post (Pletcher)
Max Player (Rice)
Modernist (Mott)
Ny Traffic (Joseph)*
Shivaree (Nicks)*

[King Glorious]

I find it interesting that many people automatically assume that the winner of the SA Derby won’t be able to come back in the Belmont because it’s only two weeks later yet nobody thinks anything of horses from the Kentucky Derby running back in the Preakness two weeks later.

[moses]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I find it interesting that many people automatically assume that the winner of the SA Derby won’t be able to come back in the Belmont because it’s only two weeks later yet nobody thinks anything of horses from the Kentucky Derby running back in the Preakness two weeks later.

Won’t be able to or simply won’t? I don’t see many trainers wanting to ship across the country and run on two weeks rest.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I find it interesting that many people automatically assume that the winner of the SA Derby won’t be able to come back in the Belmont because it’s only two weeks later yet nobody thinks anything of horses from the Kentucky Derby running back in the Preakness two weeks later.

Definitely see a bunch of trainers wanting to ship across the country on two weeks rest when most have missed a prep or two.

As always, you’ve got your finger on the pulse of what’s going on.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I find it interesting that many people automatically assume that the winner of the SA Derby won’t be able to come back in the Belmont because it’s only two weeks later yet nobody thinks anything of horses from the Kentucky Derby running back in the Preakness two weeks later.

I don't think it's "many people" thinking (or agreeing) with not running back in 2 weeks, but the heavy favorite for the SA Derby is Authentic and Bob Baffert reportedly said that he would not come right back in the Belmont:

The trainer's other prominent 3-year-old, Authentic, will not target the Belmont Stakes as he is booked to run in the Santa Anita Derby on June 6.

The other SA Derby favorite is Honor A.P. trained by John Shirreffs. If the 2 week turnaround isn't enough to dissuade him, certainly the geography (Rocky Mountains in between CA and NY) will...

[moses]

I like Finnick the Fierce going to the Jeff Ruby. I’m guessing he’ll be favored...though Ed DeRosa just listed Invader in his Derby Top 10...

And wow - they may need to split the Louisiana Derby into 4 divisions.

[Kasept]

2 Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg) 122
5 King Guillermo (Juan Carlos Avila) 90
6 Ete Indien (Patrick Biancone) 74
7 Modernist (Bill Mott) 70
8 Authentic (Bob Baffert) 60
9 Mr. Monomoy (Brad Cox) 52
10 Basin (Steve Asmussen) 50
11 Mischevious Alex (John Servis) 50
12 Ny Traffic (Saffie Joseph Jr.) 50
13 Shivaree (Ralph Nicks) 40
14 Gouverneur Morris (Todd Pletcher) 34
15 Enforceable (Mark Casse) 33
16 Storm the Court (Peter Eurton) 32
17 Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone) 30
18 Major Fed (Greg Foley) 30
19 Thousand Words (Bob Baffert) 25
20 Finnick the Fierce (Rey Hernandez) 25
21 Silver Prospector (Steve Asmussen) 25

[herkhorse]

Is Silver Prospector off the Derby Trail? I thought he had 21 points.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Is Silver Prospector off the Derby Trail? I thought he had 21 points.

There's a line through him on the Churchill Media master list.

[Kasept]

Gouverneur Morris has colitis that will sideline him for a couple of months.

[Kasept]

Sept 5 (CD): Kentucky Derby (10f)

1 Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg) 272
2 Honor A.P. (John Shirreffs) 120
3 Authentic (Bob Baffert) 100
4 King Guillermo (Juan Carlos Avila) 90
5 Ete Indien (Patrick Biancone) 74
6 Modernist (Bill Mott) 70
7 Ny Traffic (Saffie Joseph Jr.) 50
8 Dr Post (Todd Pletcher) 60
9 Basin (Steve Asmussen) 50
10 Mischevious Alex (John Servis) 50
11 Shivaree (Ralph Nicks) 40
12 Max Player (Linda Rice) 40
13 Storm the Court (Peter Eurton) 32
14 Enforceable (Mark Casse) 33
15 Thousand Words (Bob Baffert) 33
16 Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone) 30
17 Major Fed (Greg Foley) 30
18 Finnick the Fierce (Rey Hernandez) 25
19 Pneumatic (Steve Asmussen) 25
20 JPN RTTD: Cafe Pharoah (Noriyuki Nori)
------------------------------------------------
21 Anneau d'Or (Blaine Wright) 22
-- Dean Martini (Tom Amoss) 20
22 Uncle Chuck (Bob Baffert) 20
23 Excession (Steve Asmussen) 20
24 Candy Tycoon (Todd Pletcher) 20
25 Farmington Road (Todd Pletcher) 15
26 Attachment Rate (Dale Romans) 15

[Kasept]

BLUE GRASS

1- Shivaree
2- Finnick the Fierce
3- Art Collector
4- Mr. Big News
5- Man in the Can
6- Hard Lighting
7- Swiss Skydiver
8- Basin
9- Attachment Rate
10- Rushie
11- Hunt the Front
12- Enforceable
13- Tiesto

[Alabama Stakes]

Filly gets to strut her stuff

[moses]

Looking through the final odds for the Oaks and is it just me or a little crazy that Speech was 10/1 and Swiss Skydiver 9/2 while Gamine was 2/1? I know Gamine ran an incredible race last time out but it was around one turn...and I think those other two are fairly close to her going around two turns.

I’m sure I’ll be wrong and she’ll win the Kentucky Oaks by 10 lengths but I hope they stay at 2 and 5 times the odds as Gamine because they’ll be pretty solid value.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Looking through the final odds for the Oaks and is it just me or a little crazy that Speech was 10/1 and Swiss Skydiver 9/2 while Gamine was 2/1? I know Gamine ran an incredible race last time out but it was around one turn...and I think those other two are fairly close to her going around two turns.

I’m sure I’ll be wrong and she’ll win the Kentucky Oaks by 10 lengths but I hope they stay at 2 and 5 times the odds as Gamine because they’ll be pretty solid value.

I'm pretty sure the 2nd half of your last sentence contradicts the first half!

What struck me about this round of Future Wagers is how small the pools were. For the Oaks, just $35K in the win pool and $20K in the exacta pool! For the Derby, just $126K in the win pool and $65K in the exacta pool. Compare that to Derby Pool 2 which had $440K in the win pool and $151K in the exacta pool.

I would've thought that with so little sports to bet on, maybe the future wager would have attracted some attention. Nope.

[moses]

Noda sends First Line back on 10 days rest to run in the Travers.

That race will be fun. Tiz the Law and Uncle Chuck, Max Player seems to get better with age, Caracaro should be better off the layoff, South Bend will like the added distance, and Country Grammer finally put it all together last time out. Great field, imo. And the way the points are looking, Uncle Chuck could make the derby with a 3rd or even 4th place finish.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Chad Brown confirms Country Grammer officially off the Derby Trail-

https://twitter.com/KentuckyDerbyCJ/...049168384?s=20


Heard Baffert was quoted as saying after the Travers something to the effect of "looks like they won't be needing the auxiliary starting gate this year"

He's probably right

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Chad Brown confirms Country Grammer officially off the Derby Trail-

https://twitter.com/KentuckyDerbyCJ/...049168384?s=20


Heard Baffert was quoted as saying after the Travers something to the effect of "looks like they won't be needing the auxiliary starting gate this year"

He's probably right

Welcome Dan back !

[Dunbar]

I wasn't expecting that after the delay and all the added point-earning races, 15 points would be enough to make the starting gate.

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DERBY WEEK STAKES


$115,000 Champion’s Day Marathon Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Friday, race Tuesday, Sept.1)

Probable: Eskenforit (trainer Steve Margolis)


$150,000 Unbridled Sidney (Entries taken Saturday, race Wednesday, Sept. 2)

Bye Bye J (Steve Asmussen); Change of Control (Michelle Lovell); Dixieincandyland (Eddie Kenneally); Stonewood (Carlo Vaccarezza); Tomlin (Mike Stidham); Violent Times (Ralph Nicks)


THURBY

$200,000 Pocahontas (GII) (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1)

Alexandria (Tim Hamm); Crazy Beautiful (Kenny McPeek); Dream Quist(McPeek); Girl Daddy(Dale Romans); Trip to Seoul (James Chapman) Xtrema (Keith Desormeaux).

$115,000 Opening Verse Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1)

Crafty Daddy (Kenny McPeek); Cullum Road (Ignacio Correas IV); Hembree (Mike Maker); Mr. Misunderstood (Brad Cox). Possible: Set Piece(Brad Cox)


OAKS DAY

$300,000 Eight Belles presented by TwinSpires.com (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

Four Graces (Ian Wilkes); Mundaye Call (Brad Cox) Sconsin (Greg Foley). Possible: Ocean Breeze (Wayne Catalano).

$300,000 Edgewood presented by Forcht Bank (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) –

Beguiled (Phil D’Amato); Lucky Betty (Will VanMeter); Outburst (Eddie Kenneally) Sharing (Graham Motion).

$250,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

Archidust (Steve Asmussen); Carotar i(Bryan Lynch); Chaps (Eddie Kenneally); Chief Cicatriz (Shawn Davis); Diamond Oops (Patrick Biancone); Extravagant Kid (Brendan Walsh); Tell Your Daddy (Neil Pessin); Tiger Blood (Mike Maker); Well Labeled (Larry Rivelli).

$400,000 Alysheba (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

By My Standards (Bret Calhoun); Hence (Jack Sisterson); Owendale (Brad Cox); Silver Dust (Bret Calhoun).

$1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Bowies Hero (Phil D’Amato); Digital Age (Chad Brown); Factor This (Brad Cox); Mr Dumas (Mike Maker); Parkland (Carlo Vaccarezza); Sacred Life (ChadBrown); Somelikeithotbrown (Maker); SpectacularGem(Jimmy Baker)

$500,000 La Troienne (GI) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

Lady Kate (Eddie Kenneally); Monomoy Girl (Brad Cox); Saracosa (Cipriano Contreras); She’s a Julie (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Vexatious (Jack Sisterson).

DERBY DAY

$500,000 Derby City Distaff (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) –Bell’s the One (Neil Pessin); Mia Mischief (Steve Asmussen); Sally’s Curlin (Dale Romans); Serengeti Empress (Tom Amoss); Wildwood’s Beauty (Scott Becker).

$500,000 Longines Distaff Turf Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1,Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Beau Recall (Brad Cox); Belle Laura (Juan Avila); Daddy is a Legend (Rusty Arnold); Juliet Foxtrot (Brad Cox); Newspaperofrecord (Chad Brown). Possible: She’sonthewarpath (Steve Margolis).

$500,000 American Turf (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Fancy Liquor (Mike Maker); Field Pass (Maker); King Theo (Carlo Vaccarezza); Mr. Big News (Bret Calhoun); Sugoi (Mike Tomlinson); Vanzzy (Mike Pino). Possible: South Ben d(Bill Mott).

$500,000 Pat Day Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Cezanne (Bob Baffert); Echo Town (Steve Asmussen); Liam’s Pride (Doug O’Neill); Shashashakemeup (Keith Desormeaux); Sonneman (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Attachment Rate (Dale Romans); Rushie (Michael McCarthy); South Bend (Bill Mott); Taishan (Richard Baltas)

$200,000 Iroquois presented by Ford (GIII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Belafonte (Tom Humphries); Drop Anchor (Kenny McPeek); Pico D’Oro (Bill Morey); Sittin On Go (Dale Romans); Super Stock (Steve Asmussen); Therideofalifetime (Ignacio Correas IV); Ultimate Badger (Romans)