tha lava man thread.... - Page 2

#21 11-08-2006, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think the amount of California horses who ship East and win is about the same as the amount who ship out there and win, and neither of those amounts are very high.

Besides Too Much Bling, I can't think of many California DIRT horses who shipped out here and consistently did well this past year.

Off the top of my head... Pu$$ycat Doll, Midnite Lute, Behaving Badly (second, but OH so close), Great Hunter, and the list goes on... don't even get me started on 2005!

Can't think of one horse who came here and won, however.

ateamstupid · #22 11-08-2006, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redransom

Off the top of my head... Pu$$ycat Doll, Midnite Lute, Behaving Badly (second, but OH so close), Great Hunter, and the list goes on... don't even get me started on 2005!

Can't think of one horse who came here and won, however.

I said CONSISTENTLY did well, not won one slow race on Polyturf.

And you're missing my point. It's not a East Coast ships West vs. West Coast ships East thing. My point is that it's a completely different type of racing out West.

#23 11-08-2006, 08:45 PM

Wait, how do you figure I'm not getting your point? Of course there's a different kind of racing out here just as there's a different kind of racing in, say, Florida or Louisiana. What I'm not getting is why you're taking issue with the Easterners shipping West vs. the Westerners shipping East.

It's a documented fact that, at least for the last decade and perhaps longer, far more horses from California have shipped and won than vice versa. If the racing is as superior, as I think you're alluding to, then you'd think more horses would be coming out here to steal our million-dollar races. It just doesn't happen.

But back to Lava Man... he obviously changes the minute his toes step in the airplane because he's shipped all over So Cal. Why? I have no idea. I'm sure if I knew I'd be Doug O'Neill's new best friend!

ateamstupid · #24 11-08-2006, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redransom

Wait, how do you figure I'm not getting your point? Of course there's a different kind of racing out here just as there's a different kind of racing in, say, Florida or Louisiana. What I'm not getting is why you're taking issue with the Easterners shipping West vs. the Westerners shipping East.

It's a documented fact that, at least for the last decade and perhaps longer, far more horses from California have shipped and won than vice versa. If the racing is as superior, as I think you're alluding to, then you'd think more horses would be coming out here to steal our million-dollar races. It just doesn't happen.

But back to Lava Man... he obviously changes the minute his toes step in the airplane because he's shipped all over So Cal. Why? I have no idea. I'm sure if I knew I'd be Doug O'Neill's new best friend!

Well, I'm not all over the past decade, but just in the last few years? The reason there have been far more West Coast shippers winning out here? Because nobody here ships out there! Why do you think that is? The money's just as good.. It's gotta be that it takes a special kind of horse to run on those speedways like they run on the dirt out here.

And you aren't getting my point, because my point is that shipping from NY to KY or KY to NY or NY to FL or FL to KY, etc. is much easier than shipping from NY to CA because there are two types of racing. NY, KY, FL (I would've said IL before all those breakdowns), etc. and CA.

If you think I'm wrong, then you come up with a better reason why East Coast owners and trainers largely refuse to go out West.

#25 11-08-2006, 09:07 PM

They don't come out here because they get their butts kicked virtually every time...

Two names off the top of my head? Happy Ticket and Perfect Drift. Do you really want me to continue?

That's why I'm a huge Wait a While fan. She not only did it, she did it twice. Oh and Todd Pletcher, too. When he ships 'em, they're ready to run! And he's had some success aside from Wait a While. Remember Texas Glitter? Of course they're both turfers, but still...

I want to know what the difference is between shipping from CA to NY and shipping from NY to CA? Answer: nothing. California horses seem to do it all the time while when NY horses dare do it, which is rarely because they know better, they typically get their a$$es kicked.

It's a fact! Hell, more foreign horses ship here and win than NY (and, possibly, KY) horses!

blackthroatedwind · #26 11-08-2006, 09:14 PM

A major reason you will have more CA horses shipping to NY for big races than NY horses to CA is the prestige of the races. The races in NY simply mean more to breeders than the races in California. There are VERY few races that matter at that end that are run in California.

ELA · #27 11-08-2006, 09:15 PM

I don't follow CA racing but like many I've watched LM's races. I've gone back and watched the replays as well. Anyway, I've never seen him up close or spent any time around him. Even if I did, I am not a trainer and can't really say anything from that perspective.

However -- aside from all the other obstacles mentioned, don't some think that this was compounded by the bute issue, or in this case lack of?

In CA, don't they allow raceday bute? Not in KY -- right?

Eric

#28 11-08-2006, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A major reason you will have more CA horses shipping to NY for big races than NY horses to CA is the prestige of the races. The races in NY simply mean more to breeders than the races in California. There are VERY few races that matter at that end that are run in California.

Point very well taken. I know the Strub has been compromised by the Sunshine Millions in a BIG way. However, with that said, it surprises me how many with breeding in mind do go the Sunshine Millions route for the big money. I know with every ounce of my being that the connections of Southern Image were always thinking about a solid stallion career for him, which is why they brought him back after such a lengthy layoff. And he won the Sunshine Millions!

What's the difference between the Sunshine Millions Classic and the Pacific Classic when it comes to a million bucks?

blackthroatedwind · #29 11-08-2006, 09:23 PM

The P Classic is a Grade 1 and has a bit more prestige. However, it is just over 20 years old and was created for the ARCS. It doesn't carry the weight that races like the Suburban, Whitney, Woodward and JCGC carry. Or the Stephen Foster for that matter.

2Hot4TV · #30 11-08-2006, 09:25 PM

I really tought Lava Man was going to run big in the Classic because of the way he was training at Hollywood. When Euro said he looked great in Keenland I really , really thought he was going to show what he's made of, but then I saw him before the race that he was focused on the crowd. I could tell he was different than at home. Lava Man is not a shipper and that's that. Too bad because I would of Loved to seen the big three rolling to the wire.

#31 11-08-2006, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The P Classic is a Grade 1 and has a bit more prestige. However, it is just over 20 years old and was created for the ARCS. It doesn't carry the weight that races like the Suburban, Whitney, Woodward and JCGC carry. Or the Stephen Foster for that matter.

Well, there's also the Big 'Cap, which is still a million. Arguably as much prestige as the races you've mentioned.

Sad about the Gold Cup, really. Used to be such a big race!

blackthroatedwind · #32 11-08-2006, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redransom

Well, there's also the Big 'Cap, which is still a million. Arguably as much prestige as the races you've mentioned.

Sad about the Gold Cup, really. Used to be such a big race!

The Big Cap is a big race. It's been around a long time.

ateamstupid · #33 11-08-2006, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Personally I think the reason many horses have had a problem shipping and winning on California dirt is the dirt itself. The tracks in the east are more sand based for the the most part, and are much more condusive to horses being able to come off of the pace. For the most part the tracks in Cali are harder, and more speed oriented. Think about a horse like Taste of Paradise. Decent horse out west, but once he hits Belmont he's a completely different animal. It seems to me, and it's just my opinion, that when you are based, and train at a sand based track, it's harder to adjust to a harder surface, than vice versa.

Thank you.

ArlJim78 · #34 11-08-2006, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redransom

They don't come out here because they get their butts kicked virtually every time...

Two names off the top of my head? Happy Ticket and Perfect Drift. Do you really want me to continue?

That's why I'm a huge Wait a While fan. She not only did it, she did it twice. Oh and Todd Pletcher, too. When he ships 'em, they're ready to run! And he's had some success aside from Wait a While. Remember Texas Glitter? Of course they're both turfers, but still...

I want to know what the difference is between shipping from CA to NY and shipping from NY to CA? Answer: nothing. California horses seem to do it all the time while when NY horses dare do it, which is rarely because they know better, they typically get their a$$es kicked.

It's a fact! Hell, more foreign horses ship here and win than NY (and, possibly, KY) horses!

I would guess that there is a simple reason that more horses ship towards the east to race. It's because that is where the majority big race opportunities are. If you're based in the east there is usually no need to go all the way out west to find a race. It's not because they get their but kicked everytime when horses go out west.

King Glorious · #35 11-09-2006, 12:50 AM

I think it's a number of reasons. First, everyone knows but hates to admit that there is a media bias towards the East Coast. There are far more major media markets on the East and the majority of the population of our country lives east of the Mississippi. Nine times out of 10, if u have a horse that wins the Suburban, Whitney, and JCGC vs. a horse that wins the SA Hcp, Hollywood Gold Cup, and Pacific Classic, the Eastern one will be considered the better horse. That's just the way it is. A Vosburgh winner will be considered better than an Ancient Title winner. A Turf Classic winner will be considered better than an Oak Tree Invitational winner. The list could go on and on.

Second is that there is a different tempo to the racing out here in California than there is back east. Out here, if u don't have speed, u can forget it. It's the name of the game here. U can run in Florida or NY and have 23, 47 speed in routes and be a lone front runner. U bring that out here and u will find yourself with plenty of company on the lead at best and at worst, five lengths back. I don't think that many trainers or horses are prepared for the faster tempo of racing here and they get caught with their pants down.

Third, as BTW alluded to, is the prestige of the races. Many of those big NY races are 100 years old or so and they have far more prestige in them than the races out here. There is more prestige to winning a race at Saratoga than anywhere else in the country. Ask 100 owners would they rather win the $1 million Delaware Hcp or the Go for Wand at Saratoga worth less than half of that amount and I'd bet u would get at least 80% in favor of the GfW. If the choice is between the GfW and the Hirsch at Del Mar, it might be 90% in favor of the GfW.

repent · #36 11-09-2006, 01:33 AM

I really hope that if O'Neil ever wants to run him in the BC again,
they run in the BC Turf.
he will run 12f and if you get a weak group of Euros, he can win or run very competitively in that race.

the idea that he is ever going to win a BCC against the top east coast handicappers on any track outside of CA is just a little crazy.

Repent

#37 11-09-2006, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think it's a number of reasons. First, everyone knows but hates to admit that there is a media bias towards the East Coast. There are far more major media markets on the East and the majority of the population of our country lives east of the Mississippi. Nine times out of 10, if u have a horse that wins the Suburban, Whitney, and JCGC vs. a horse that wins the SA Hcp, Hollywood Gold Cup, and Pacific Classic, the Eastern one will be considered the better horse. That's just the way it is. A Vosburgh winner will be considered better than an Ancient Title winner. A Turf Classic winner will be considered better than an Oak Tree Invitational winner. The list could go on and on.

Second is that there is a different tempo to the racing out here in California than there is back east. Out here, if u don't have speed, u can forget it. It's the name of the game here. U can run in Florida or NY and have 23, 47 speed in routes and be a lone front runner. U bring that out here and u will find yourself with plenty of company on the lead at best and at worst, five lengths back. I don't think that many trainers or horses are prepared for the faster tempo of racing here and they get caught with their pants down.

Third, as BTW alluded to, is the prestige of the races. Many of those big NY races are 100 years old or so and they have far more prestige in them than the races out here. There is more prestige to winning a race at Saratoga than anywhere else in the country. Ask 100 owners would they rather win the $1 million Delaware Hcp or the Go for Wand at Saratoga worth less than half of that amount and I'd bet u would get at least 80% in favor of the GfW. If the choice is between the GfW and the Hirsch at Del Mar, it might be 90% in favor of the GfW.

All points very well taken. I talked to a trainer friend of mine about this very thing this morning; he said, really, it isn't about East vs. West as much as it's just planning races for a (good) horse based on a circuit. Good trainers don't think their good horses need to take their tracks with them, but that aside, if someone is based in, say, New York it just makes much more sense to plan a campaign around where he normally runs. The same thing applies to California-based horses. And there is a strong Eastern bias when it comes to the Eclipses, but that's just geography.

I will say, however, that my future Hall of Fame trainer friend (and former classmate) did say the level of competition out here is a big factor in determining whether or not to ship. His point was why ship all the way across the country and know you're going to have to beat extremely tough California horses when you can stay home? Tracks have nothing to do with it, he said, and if anything the polytrack is now an added incentive to come out here and roll the dice. I think I'll take his word on it.

ateamstupid · #38 11-09-2006, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redransom

I will say, however, that my future Hall of Fame trainer friend (and former classmate) did say the level of competition out here is a big factor in determining whether or not to ship. His point was why ship all the way across the country and know you're going to have to beat extremely tough California horses when you can stay home? Tracks have nothing to do with it, he said, and if anything the polytrack is now an added incentive to come out here and roll the dice. I think I'll take his word on it.

Yeah, Super Frolic, Magnum, Ace Blue and Preachinatthebar are superstars.