Deepest Derby field in recent memory

[robfla]

Looking at Lucky was the favorite at 6:1

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by robfla

Looking at Lucky was the favorite at 6:1

That was the point. This year, he wouldn't be just as International Star will have longer odds.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Agreed. It seems to me that there have been years in the past where a horse with International Star's connections, PPs, and pedigree would have been one of the top two or three choices. This year he probably won't be in the top six or seven.

No there haven't been. He is way too slow to have ever been one of the first three choices. Plus, there is absolutely nothing sexy about him whatsoever.

[Kitan]

Deep in what sense? I think that's more a function of fields in recent memory being such low standard than anything else. In terms of Beyer figs, this anticipated field is not dissimilar to that of last year, which has been denounced as a weak crop. Some of these may turn out to be great in the future without having a chance to win the Derby, e.g. Materiality, if that's what you mean? There's a few of the more favoured runners that I would be very surprised to see win.

I can only see five of the horses with any points whatsoever having any chance of winning, but only really like one, maybe two out of that five. There's two more extreme longshots that can potentially join that list of five if they have positive showings that fit my criteria at Oaklawn this weekend. Subjectively, liking one or two of twenty to win doesn't make it "deep".

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Deep in what sense? I think that's more a function of fields in recent memory being such low standard than anything else. In terms of Beyer figs, this anticipated field is not dissimilar to that of last year, which has been denounced as a weak crop. Some of these may turn out to be great in the future without having a chance to win the Derby, e.g. Materiality, if that's what you mean? There's a few of the more favoured runners that I would be very surprised to see win.

I can only see five of the horses with any points whatsoever having any chance of winning, but only really like one, maybe two out of that five. There's two more extreme longshots that can potentially join that list of five if they have positive showings that fit my criteria at Oaklawn this weekend. Subjectively, liking one or two of twenty to win doesn't make it "deep".

I'm beginning to wonder if you are PG1985 with a better vocabulary.

[Kitan]

I'm not exactly sure who that member is (no offense to PG1985) but at least you didn't call me RockHardTen so I guess that must be a compliment.

[Indian Charlie]

Those two posts might be the best consecutive posts ever!

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kitan

I'm not exactly sure who that member is (no offense to PG1985) but at least you didn't call me RockHardTen so I guess that must be a compliment.

Be thankful that you can handicap horses far better then you can handicap DT Posters.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Kitan

I'm not exactly sure who that member is (no offense to PG1985) but at least you didn't call me RockHardTen so I guess that must be a compliment.

Just woke up and read this....started my day with a big smile...thank you!

It's all downhill from here.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

Be thankful that you can handicap horses far better then you can handicap DT Posters.

that would be a blast. 20 posts / 20 posters, who remain anonymous,try to match one list with the other.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Kitan

I'm not exactly sure who that member is (no offense to PG1985) but at least you didn't call me RockHardTen so I guess that must be a compliment.

thanks for the laugh!

PG1985 IS RockHardTen!! new name after banishment

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by jms62

Be thankful that you can handicap horses far better then you can handicap DT Posters.

I fluke out winners. My handicapping methods sway from the norm and my racing opinions are generally derided.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No there haven't been. He is way too slow to have ever been one of the first three choices. Plus, there is absolutely nothing sexy about him whatsoever.

Wasn't Friesan Fire the post time favorite in his race? Do you really think International Star looks that much worse than FF did coming out of Louisiana?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Wasn't Friesan Fire the post time favorite in his race? Do you really think International Star looks that much worse than FF did coming out of Louisiana?

I think his point may be that the Cali shippers are going to be overbet based on their West Coast form vs. how IS got here, which, granted, the LA route has been the thinnest of them to date.

I like horses that aren't overtaxed in their last prep (the Upstart love is great - keep it up) and saw how easily IS managed the LA Derby field first hand. Will be very interested in how Far Right responds over fast dirt tomorrow, and hesitant to dismiss anyone based on "being way too slow" in preps where they weren't really stretched.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I think his point may be that the Cali shippers are going to be overbet based on their West Coast form vs. how IS got here, which, granted, the LA route has been the thinnest of them to date.

I like horses that aren't overtaxed in their last prep (the Upstart love is great - keep it up) and saw how easily IS managed the LA Derby field first hand. Will be very interested in how Far Right responds over fast dirt tomorrow, and hesitant to dismiss anyone based on "being way too slow" in preps where they weren't really stretched.

Wasn't Mena bordering a PETA onslaught from his 20+ whips (correct me if I'm wrong on that number) in the stretch?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I think his point may be that the Cali shippers are going to be overbet based on their West Coast form vs. how IS got here, which, granted, the LA route has been the thinnest of them to date.

I like horses that aren't overtaxed in their last prep (the Upstart love is great - keep it up) and saw how easily IS managed the LA Derby field first hand. Will be very interested in how Far Right responds over fast dirt tomorrow, and hesitant to dismiss anyone based on "being way too slow" in preps where they weren't really stretched.

IS wasn't really stretched in the LA Derby? I didn't see it that way.

My point wasn't that people should bet on International Star. My point was that in this Derby people probably won't bet on a horse like him because there appears to be a considerable number of very talented colts in the race. That hasn't always been the case in past years.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Wasn't Mena bordering a PETA onslaught from his 20+ whips (correct me if I'm wrong on that number) in the stretch?

Originally Posted by miraja2

IS wasn't really stretched in the LA Derby? I didn't see it that way.

My point wasn't that people should bet on International Star. My point was that in this Derby people probably won't bet on a horse like him because there appears to be a considerable number of very talented colts in the race. That hasn't always been the case in past years.

I think that's the way this horse needs to be ridden in the stretch, particularly when chasing crawling fractions.

His Risen Star was similar. He galloped out strongly in both efforts and really only needed to run the last 3/8ths or so. Additionally, he should definitely get a more favorable pace scenario in Kentucky and is a must use IMO. To toss the horse based on presumed slowness is a bit perplexing, is all.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

My point wasn't that people should bet on International Star. My point was that in this Derby people probably won't bet on a horse like him because there appears to be a considerable number of very talented colts in the race. That hasn't always been the case in past years.

Yes!

[Kitan]

I don't think he seems slow. His Beyers are always improving and he has one of the highest BRIS Late Pace figs in the field. In fact, he's one of only five (possibly two more depending on the race later today, neither of which will be AP regardless of if he wins by the length of the stretch or not) that I can see winning. The rest would be surprising. I'll be using him, especially in cover multiples, but I'm not overly convinced by his actual talent, irrespective of numbers. His form outside of FG is just okay, and at FG he 1) didn't beat much, and 2) may just have loved the course. I was high on War Story prior to the La. Derby and backed him in futures expecting further progress, but that didn't happen. Based on that I can't see him factoring much, neither will Stanford. Keen Ice is a plodder and Tiznow RJ is a few cuts below. I don't wish bad will on anyone, but in a sense it wouldn't be the worst thing if he didn't run well in the Derby. To be in contention and ridden like that, in America's biggest race, would not be what racing needs in terms of spotlight. I wouldn't agree with the outcry or the notion that he could run as well when not being pushed so aggressively, but the media would have a field day.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kitan

I don't think he seems slow. His Beyers are always improving and he has one of the highest BRIS Late Pace figs in the field. In fact, he's one of only five (possibly two more depending on the race later today, neither of which will be AP regardless of if he wins by the length of the stretch or not) that I can see winning. The rest would be surprising. I'll be using him, especially in cover multiples, but I'm not overly convinced by his actual talent, irrespective of numbers. His form outside of FG is just okay, and at FG he 1) didn't beat much, and 2) may just have loved the course. I was high on War Story prior to the La. Derby and backed him in futures expecting further progress, but that didn't happen. Based on that I can't see him factoring much, neither will Stanford. Keen Ice is a plodder and Tiznow RJ is a few cuts below. I don't wish bad will on anyone, but in a sense it wouldn't be the worst thing if he didn't run well in the Derby. To be in contention and ridden like that, in America's biggest race, would not be what racing needs in terms of spotlight. I wouldn't agree with the outcry or the notion that he could run as well when not being pushed so aggressively, but the media would have a field day.

I consider him the 11th most likely winner. Deep field.