Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-14-2006, 06:33 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,183
Default

There's also a difference between success at stud as "fashionable" and success at stud unfashionably..

Pleasant Tap is a 'success' if anyone is willing to let the progeny ripen. Through '04, Tap's stats yield 74% runners, 49% winners and 8% stakes winners. At $10,000 a clip, he's the greatest bargain in breeding.. Turf.. Dirt.. routes.. sprints.. Tap Dance City, Tap the Admiral (RIP), PT's Grey Eagle, Pleasant Breeze, Tap to Music.. And he get's his get from ordinary mares.

But the breeding industry is precocious crazy and care little about soundness and longevity, so Pleasant Tap is a "failure" at stud.. Myopic..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-14-2006, 06:38 AM
oracle80
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
There's also a difference between success at stud as "fashionable" and success at stud unfashionably..

Pleasant Tap is a 'success' if anyone is willing to let the progeny ripen. Through '04, Tap's stats yield 74% runners, 49% winners and 8% stakes winners. At $10,000 a clip, he's the greatest bargain in breeding.. Turf.. Dirt.. routes.. sprints.. Tap Dance City, Tap the Admiral (RIP), PT's Grey Eagle, Pleasant Breeze, Tap to Music.. And he get's his get from ordinary mares.

But the breeding industry is precocious crazy and care little about soundness and longevity, so Pleasant Tap is a "failure" at stud.. Myopic..
Real Quiet has been labeled a total failure as well, but this past year has had two grade one winners. He now stands for 5 grand, in Pennsylvania. His son Midnight Lute won over the waxcovered tires yesterday at Keeneland in the Perryville.
Big difference between commerical failure and failure in general. Most start at such a high stud fee that the expectations are insane to begin with.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-14-2006, 06:56 AM
miraja2's Avatar
miraja2 miraja2 is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,157
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'd love to see someone give an example of a Victory Gallop stakes winner.
Here are some stakes winners by Victory Gallop:
Louisborg, Victorious Ami, Separato, Red Lifesaver, Rousing Victory.

Now that being said....I think BB is correct to say that Victory Gallop has not been a real big success as a sire. Being a sire of decent claimers and the occasional small stakes winner is fine, but as Oracle suggests, it isn't exactly what most people hope for when they send a champion like VG to the shed.

The list on the whole I think is rather good, but I have to take some issue with Affirmed.
The Tin Man
Flawlessly
Affirmed Success
Quiet Resolve
Affluent
Zoman
Peteski

Those were all MULTIPLE G1 winners by Affirmed which makes me wonder just how many MULTIPLE G1 winners you need to sire before you are no longer considered a failure. Add those names to his long list of other graded stakes winners and his success as a broodmare sire.....and I think calling him a failure is a tad inaccurate.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-14-2006, 07:58 AM
Pedigree Ann's Avatar
Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,776
Default

I opened my 2006 stallion register, which is complete to the end of October,2005. Victory Gallop had at that time three crops of racing age, the oldest being 4; from 192 named foals, he had 67% runners (only 11 of 54 2yos), 49% winners (5 of those 11 2yos) and 10 SWs (0 2yo). Obviously, he isn't a sire of early maturing stock. If you consider only his 3 and 4yos, he had 80% runners, 65% winners from foals, and 7% SWs, which are not bad numbers for a very young stud career. No homeruns yet, just a lot of steady singles and doubles.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:24 PM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Here are some stakes winners by Victory Gallop:
Louisborg, Victorious Ami, Separato, Red Lifesaver, Rousing Victory.

Now that being said....I think BB is correct to say that Victory Gallop has not been a real big success as a sire. Being a sire of decent claimers and the occasional small stakes winner is fine, but as Oracle suggests, it isn't exactly what most people hope for when they send a champion like VG to the shed.

The list on the whole I think is rather good, but I have to take some issue with Affirmed.
The Tin Man
Flawlessly
Affirmed Success
Quiet Resolve
Affluent
Zoman
Peteski

Those were all MULTIPLE G1 winners by Affirmed which makes me wonder just how many MULTIPLE G1 winners you need to sire before you are no longer considered a failure. Add those names to his long list of other graded stakes winners and his success as a broodmare sire.....and I think calling him a failure is a tad inaccurate.
What was Affirmed's AEI and SW%?

Where are his successful sons at stud?

Which of his daughters have been successful broodmares?

Sorry ... Affirmed was a failure as a stallion.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:33 PM
Bold Reasoning
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
What was Affirmed's AEI and SW%?

Where are his successful sons at stud?

Which of his daughters have been successful broodmares?

Sorry ... Affirmed was a failure as a stallion.
Affirmed was no more a failure than Alydar. Which sons of Alydar carry on the line? Few and far -between make it as racehorse and sire-of-sires. I see neither as failures because each give us some marvelous runners.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-14-2006, 09:41 PM
miraja2's Avatar
miraja2 miraja2 is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,157
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
Sorry ... Affirmed was a failure as a stallion.
I guess I just have a problem with the way you apply the term "failure." I admire the fact that you are attempting such a comprehensive list and are willing to take the time to argue against those that disagree with you on various points, and like I said in my original response I don't have a big problem with most of the sires you have on your list.
But how many of those other horses on your list sired seven multiple-G1 winners like Affirmed? There simply are not that many multiple-G1 winners out there, and I just don't feel that designating a horse that sires seven of them as a "failure" is exactly fair.
And it isn't like those were his only good runners either. He also sired graded stakes winniners Charley Barley, Buy the Firm, Mossflower, One From Heaven, I Thee Wed, etc. You seem to be saying that there are ONLY two options for a sire:
1) Establishes a dominant male sire line.
2) Failure.

To me it is a bit more complicated than that.
A horse that sires a considerable number of graded stakes winners is.....to me..... NOT a failure.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:21 PM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'd love to see someone give an example of a Victory Gallop stakes winner. I'm sure there are, but everyone jumped on BB's back about him, yet not one mention of a stakes winner. Thats not a coincidence. His post was very accurate for what it's purpose was. It was to show it is impossible to predict how a sire will do. Yeah some of the names on there have had a some success as a sire, but none have produced in the farm like they produced on the track.
Please don't confuse this discussion with facts ...

... it's the emotional reaction that counts.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-14-2006, 08:01 PM
repent repent is offline
Monmouth Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 823
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dixie Porter
If you're gonna bet horses because of their breeding you're gonna go broke sooner rather than later.

I spent 50 years, hands on, around MANY of the best horses that ever set foot on a race track. Never knew the breeding of even one of them.
never said i bet horses BECAUSE of their pedigree.
just dont have a problem betting a VGallop horse.
they seem to be runners and competitive.


Repent
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-13-2006, 11:50 PM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Ft Lauderdale
Posts: 9,413
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
On another thread ... as a result of the possible retirement of Bernardini ... a youngster ... who doesn't know very much about this game ... asked me if a champion racehorse was ever a failure as a stallion.

I replied ... "Why sure, son ... there have been lots of them" ... and supplied this partial list for him to study and ponder ...

Ponder ... Citation ... Coaltown ... Hill Prince ... Iron Liege ... Tim Tam ... Nadir ... Sword Dancer ... Bald Eagle ... Crimson Satan ... Jaipur ... Ridan ... Never Bend ... Bold Lad ... Successor ... Dr. Fager ... Vitriolic ... Arts And Letters ... Personality ... Riva Ridge ... Ack Ack ... Sham ... Wajima ... Bold Forbes ... Youth ... Affirmed ... Spectacular Bid ... Lord Avie ... Temperence Hill ... Conquistador Cielo ... Devil's Bag ... Chief's Crown ... Spend A Buck ... Vanlandingham ... Turkoman ... Smile ... Alysheba ... Ferdinand ... Groovy ... Easy Goer ... Risen Star ... Rhythm ... Blushing John ... Steinlen ...Fly So Free ... Criminal Type ... Housebuster ... Arazi ... Hansel ... Black Tie Affair ... Gilded Time ... Pleasant Tap ... Rubiano ... Dehere ... Bertrando ... Timber Country ... Holy Bull ... Cigar ... Skip Away ... Lit De Justice ... Favorite Trick ... Silver Charm ... Free House ... Answer Lively ... Real Quiet ... Victory Gallop ... Artax ...

Can anyone out there add a few more ... to help educate one of our eager and deserving young friends?
I have to agree with Repent... not all of those horses were failures at stud. Victory gallop, artax (hasnt had enough runners to judge this yet), Cigar is sterile!, Pleasant Tap, Rubiano, Dehere, Betrando is a nice CA stallion (siring Officer, and 27 other stakes winners), Holy Bull (I thought one his offspring won the derby like two years ago..). Timber COuntry has sired a lot of good horses oversea's.

Not very impressed Bold!
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 10-13-2006, 11:55 PM
repent repent is offline
Monmouth Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 823
Default

yeah,
HBull has proved to be a useful sire.
and Im not talking about Giacomo and Macho Uno b/c, although Grade 1 winners, those are just 2 horses out of hundreds.

HBull's do well on turf when stretched out.
maybe they are just high leveled claimers, but they are still runners.

a failure at stud is a horse that cant get his horses to the track or a stud who simply does not produce winners.
thats not the case for those that I mentioned.



Repent
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 10-14-2006, 11:56 AM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
I have to agree with Repent... not all of those horses were failures at stud. Victory gallop, artax (hasnt had enough runners to judge this yet), Cigar is sterile!, Pleasant Tap, Rubiano, Dehere, Betrando is a nice CA stallion (siring Officer, and 27 other stakes winners), Holy Bull (I thought one his offspring won the derby like two years ago..). Timber COuntry has sired a lot of good horses oversea's.

Not very impressed Bold!
Out of nearly 70 horses on the list ... you cite 9 of them as possible exceptions ... yet none of the ones you cite ... without mentioning the 60 others ... has come close to establishing a successful male line ... although it's remotely possible with Bertrando if Officer becomes a success as a stallion ... or has produced a long string of graded stakes winners.

None of their names will likely appear as the male progenitor of future champions.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 10-13-2006, 11:56 PM
VictoryGallop VictoryGallop is offline
Yearling
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 5
Default Victory Gallop A Failure ?

I think Victory Gallop has had several Graded Stakes Winner's, so, I am not sure I would call that a failure.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:02 AM
repent repent is offline
Monmouth Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 823
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VictoryGallop
I think Victory Gallop has had several Graded Stakes Winner's, so, I am not sure I would call that a failure.
well,
and its even more than that.
stakes races and stakes runners are such a small percentage of thoroughbred racing.

I handicap VGallop runners at Calder, Colonial, Beulah, Belmont, Inner Aqueduct, Outer Aqueduct, Arlignton, Fairmont, Emerald, ..................wherever

and they win at every level(claiming, allowance, overnight stakes, graded stakes).

his horses look terrible a lot of times. but they can run and they are competitive.
that makes him an excellent sire in my book.

he is like a poor man's Marias Mon.
marias mon is my favorite sre b/c they win everywhere. sprint, route, dirt, turf, off track, whatever..........they are runners.


Repent
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:10 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Conquistador Cielo-
You see a lot of his offspring out in Cali. They seem to be allright, especialy in sprint ranks.

Repent brings up a good point about horses even getting to the track... If the Sire is producing what appear to be freakishly talented runners, but that are also freakishly injury prone, is that considered successful? How would you brand Fu Peg so far based on this point?
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:10 AM
VictoryGallop VictoryGallop is offline
Yearling
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 5
Default Sire: Victory Gallop

Thanks, Repent ! This is probably one of my all time favorite horses and I always follow his progeny and have won a lot of money on these youngsters. I couldn't believe what I was reading.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:17 AM
repent repent is offline
Monmouth Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 823
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VictoryGallop
Thanks, Repent ! This is probably one of my all time favorite horses and I always follow his progeny and have won a lot of money on these youngsters. I couldn't believe what I was reading.

its the whole triple crown lunacy that blinds so many fans.
Im not saying thats what BB was doing, but its the most overemphasized part of the game.

Vgallop performed well in the triple crown races.
so ppl want to see his horses do well in the triple crown races and consider him a disappointment when they do not.
its BS.
same for Free House.
he was a very good California sire when he was alive.
so what if they did not run in triple crown races.
its just 3 races, and to be honest, the Preakness and Belmont are 2 of the softer Grade 1 races around at this point.
the Haskell and Travers almost always come up tougher as far as 3Yo Grade 1 races are concerned.



Repent
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:15 PM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VictoryGallop
Thanks, Repent ! This is probably one of my all time favorite horses and I always follow his progeny and have won a lot of money on these youngsters. I couldn't believe what I was reading.
Stallion success is measured by the quality of the runners they produce (sires of runners)... and whether or not any of their sons become successful sires (sires of sires) ... and/or if they produce a string of daughters who become successful broodmares (sires of broodmares) ...

... not by the number of bets you cash on claiming and allowance races.

Sires of Runners: There is a statistic called the Lifetime Average Earnings Index (Lifetime AEI) ... which provides a good measure of success as a sire of runners. Only stallions with Lifetime AEI's above 3.00 are generally considered to be successful sires of runners. I don't have that figure for all of the stallions I cited ... but I doubt if any of them are anywhere near 3.00. Also important is the percentage of stakes winners ... which should be above 10% ... and as high as 15% or more for the great stallions. None of the stallions I cited comes close to those figures.

Sires of Sires: This becomes evident when a stallions sons go to stud. It's a bit early for some of the more recent horses on my list ... but it's highly doubtful that any of them will produce one or more sons who are success at stud.

Broodmare Sires: Same as Sires of Sires ... but on the female side.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 10-14-2006, 11:49 AM
pgardn
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by repent
well,

his horses look terrible a lot of times. but they can run and they are competitive.
that makes him an excellent sire in my book.

whatever..........they are runners.


Repent
You totally ruined his world. There are people who cannot separate good runners from good lookers.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 10-14-2006, 12:01 PM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VictoryGallop
I think Victory Gallop has had several Graded Stakes Winner's, so, I am not sure I would call that a failure.
Victory Gallop sired a handful of stakes winners ... none of them G1 ... in his first three crops.

It's extremely rare for a stallion's offspring to get better as he gets older ... so it's very, very unlikely that Victory Gallop will ever produce a series of G1 or other graded stakes winners ... nor that any of his sons will become successful stallions.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:10 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.