The Derby figure

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Wildcat Red's start to the race might have had something to do with the slower than expected pace. He bobbled a bit out of the gate and then got bumped. Then he started running for a few strides but the slow start meant that other horses crossed in front of him and he had to check sharply early. He never really got going.
I'm not saying this was the only cause but I think his presence certainly was a big reason why people thought the pace would be hot, and the circumstances of the race caused him to never sniff the lead.

The same might have been said about Vicar's In Trouble's start - he also figured to tend the pace but wasn't quick enough out and got sawed off by Uncle Sigh - was stuck inside the entire way and finally through in the towel mid turn.

[Kasept]

Thoro-Graph numbers for both cards available now..

https://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/index.php?utid=main

-3 (neg) for Untapable. New top from -2.25 (neg) 2 back.

0 for California Chrome. Slight new top .5 last.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thoro-Graph numbers for both cards available now..

https://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/index.php?utid=main

-3 (neg) for Untapable. New top from -2 (neg) last.

0 for California Chrome. Slight new top .5 last.

How does Cal Crome's thorograph compare to recent past winners?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by 3kings

How does Cal Crome's thorograph compare to recent past winners?

Faster than Super Saver and I'll Have Another, slower than everyone else from 2006 til the present. About the same as Giacomo from 2005.

The figs are available in the archive section at their site.

This link should give you all the winning figs since 1982:

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/f...inners2013.pdf

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 3kings

How does Cal Crome's thorograph compare to recent past winners?

Answered above..

In terms of the way the discussion has come up for this year, TG has the winner and runner up slightly faster than Beyer, but like Beyer, the rest of the field falls logically into line... (As opposed to some that want to insist that they all were magically faster despite all the evidence to the contrary.)

[Indian Charlie]

So, according to the link from Golfer, California Chrome is in a multi horse tie for best TG Derby figure in the history of TG, circa 1981 or 1982??

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

So, according to the link from Golfer, California Chrome is in a multi horse tie for best TG Derby figure in the history of TG, circa 1981 or 1982??

No. The Negative numbers are faster. The scale doesn't stop at zero.

[Calzone Lord]

Here's an example of the occasional pitfalls associated with the "facts"

Aqueduct April 12th Race 6:
Trakus Time: 1:22.24
Official Time: 1:23.50

Aqueduct April 12th Race 8:
Trakus Time: 1:21.97
Official Time: 1:22.01


As you can see...

http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/videos/...0140412/6/pan/

The clock malfunctioned during the running of Race 6. Now, because of the tricky camera angle, seven furlong races are among the very hardest to "hand-time" -- so I won't be too critical of the lousy job by whoever hand-timed the 6th race.

Anyway, 1:22.28 (The Trackus time, plus 0.04) would be the proper final time to use for Race #6 in order to get it in harmony with Race 8.

In other words, the 1:23.50 "official" final time, that is in the past performances and result charts, is garbage.

This stuff happens a whole lot more at some places, than others. For every one time it happens on the NYRA circuit, it happens a lot more frequently at some cheaper tracks. There are some cheap tracks that were a pleasure. Emerald Downs had almost no timing problems and good chart callers. But, than you have places like Penn National and especially Evangeline Downs -- where screw-ups happen all the time. The chart callers at Golden Gate were the sloppiest I encountered, in regard to simply reporting the correct final time.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by Danzig

what i don't understand is why the early pace wasn't fast. it seemed we had more than our usual share of speedsters, and kept hearing they would all get cooked. did the trainers blunt the one tool those horses had in their arsenal, in order to try to get them further?

A couple of factors played into the pace scenario (IMO).........first, after last year and all the hype about the insane fractions, I just believe that no jockey/owner wanted to be accused of the 'Palace Malice' ride. Jockeys and owners are human and they read the papers and hear all the stuff that has been said. Look at what happened in last years Preakness where all the hype about the fast pace in the Derby affected everyone except Stevens/Oxbow and they cruised up front. There's always overreaction and over analysis following an event. Nobody wants to be 'stupid' and rerun the scenario. But this Derby pace was solid anyway. Just not crazy. Second, the fact is (as Beyer pointed out on ATR) these guys are mostly so lightly raced and just not bred to get 1 1/4 miles the only choice they have is to try and save some energy to go that far. Yes, there is the usual whining about trips etc but that will never change.

Finally, my guess is that the Preakness will have plenty of pace (the opposite of last year) and that could truly have the pace meltdown scenario. I don't know if they can put enough pressure on California Chrome to make him wilt but one or more horses/jockeys will be trying.

I also agree with many that are so frustrated when a speed horse is 'choked back' to sit a trip rather than just using the natural advantage and running style of a particular horse.

[classhandicapper]

Great piece!

What about the possibility that since they raced into a headwind early, the early pace was actually a little faster than it looks. Perhaps it's not as moderate as it appears (especially relative to that slow final time).

A few horses may have been impacted negatively "figure wise" by either being on or close (while wide) to that pace chasing. CA Chrome is one for sure.

Lately we've seen some collapsing paces in the Derby (like last year), but there's a lot of room between "average" and "collapse" that can still impact the figures of some of the horses negatively depending on trip and when they made their move.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by tector

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

I stopped paying attention to his Belmont figure a few years ago. I add points to it in a way that gives me a result that makes sense.

There is no rule that says 6F in "X" time = 10F in "Y" time = 12F in "Z" time.

The purpose of speed figures is not to equate horses from 20 or more years ago with horses today. IMO there's too much subjective figure drift, drug use has changed (legal and illegal), class structures have changed, training styles have changed etc... to do that really well anyway. People disagree on figures for the same day at the same track, let alone 20-30 years ago.

The purpose of figures is to equate horses running at different distances on different tracks from each others NOW. So IMO if the relationships between distances have changed because the horses have changed, then the speed figure charts have to change.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by tector

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

He should have long ago adjusted his speed charts to reflect racing today, not how it was in 1974.

[Mack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Mack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

It is a natural thing to do, and something I fell into for a bit before stepping back and reassessing things. I'm with you 100% on this.

[Sightseek]

A nice write-up by Timeform on the figure:

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/05/07...figure-review/

[cmorioles]

Also worth a read:

http://tinyurl.com/derbywind

[Calzone Lord]

So, the 15mph headwind for an extra 1.5 furlongs, contributed to a final time 0.81 seconds slower, based on that relationship.

Beyer only baked in 3.5 lengths for it. Needed to bake in closer to 4.75 lengths.

What does it say about the sheet figures? They're supposed to account for wind? They both have Untapable much faster.

The Derby has had a turf race carded before it for decades. The post times have been ridiculously long between races for decades. I guess this was finally, a year where the track maintenance crew did something different, and out of the norm?

[Calzone Lord]

Not sure what button I hit on my phone, to make a thumbs down appear, but I would never boo you, CJ

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Mack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

Cool story.

You should ignore Beyer figures...and instead focus on Thoro Graph. The scale suggests the thoroughbred is far superior today.

We Miss Artie is faster than Alysheba and Sunday Silence.

Maybe they're right. Beyer figs weighted by Pars. It sure would be fun to see if Commanding Curve could smoke the greats of the late 80's ... but they'd have to step out of a time machine.

[alysheba4]

sunday silence could have spotted artie a furlong and beat him.