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#22
03-23-2010, 10:02 AM
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Super Saver isn't going 10 panels in a horse van.
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#23
03-23-2010, 11:13 AM
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ESKENDEREYA, Lookin at Lucky and Dublin are all really good IMO. They can all win the Derby and continue to be good long term. Dublin might be the least liked out of those 3, but his trip was HORRIBLE last time that premature move had to have cost him. He needs to be allowed to make 1 big long run. After these 3 you have Awesome Act and Sidneys Candy who IMO can both pop up and do some damage... After these 5 there is no one else. I think a horse like Sidneys Candy would pop up and run huge first time dirt, but I dont think he can beat Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.
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#24
03-23-2010, 11:21 AM
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hes a closing sprinter that can clunk up in a 2 turn race if the pace is fast enough. he has little to no chance winning the derby. he is totally dependant on pace and has done nothing to show he is a horse that will appreciate 10 furlongs.
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#25
03-23-2010, 11:29 AM
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#26
03-23-2010, 11:54 AM
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watch the race again. if he was 4 wide throughout then nobles promise was 3 wide throughout. i agree, he moved early. so did nobles promise. what is his excuse for getting beaten soundly by nobles promise? we disagree about what is horrible trip is. he moved prematurely, but he also had nothing left when it counted. hes a closing sprinter.
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#27
03-23-2010, 11:58 AM
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There's a big difference between being in 4th, 3.5 lengths off the pace and being in sixth, seven lengths off the pace and those horses moving at the same time. That's where Noble's Promise and Dublin were when the field straightened out for the backstretch. NT
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#28
03-23-2010, 12:19 PM
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#29
03-23-2010, 12:24 PM
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While that's an exaggeration.....but I don't understand why people have so much trouble grasping this. Races are frequently won because of how they are run.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#30
03-23-2010, 12:29 PM
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Odysseus may not be a great horse, but it is unlikely he will be facing many great horses May 1. He's not my pick, but then again there is no tote board up yet, either. Give me a price and I might give him a bet.
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#31
03-23-2010, 12:34 PM
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#32
03-23-2010, 12:42 PM
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Of course we know that " bounce " is just a convenient euphamism for " I didn't want to take the time to figure out why " but what you ignore is that accurate numbers can help predict race dynamics, i.e. good pace figures, and also tell you how capable a horse is under optimal conditions....which is what you ( and I mean YOU specifically in this case ) are looking for when you bet a horse. This is a flaw in your game...as you are as dogmatic as many sheet players ( I always laugh when I recall someone I know calling them Stalinists ) in an opposite manner of disregarding them. Everything has its place. That doesn't mean we need to use and understand everything....but the more factors we understand and use effectively the better we will do.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#33
03-23-2010, 01:24 PM
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95: Ide-won Southwest, Rebel, retired prior to AK Derby Editor's Note- placed FL Derby, Blue Grass, Preakness, won Belmont 96: Concerto- won Jim Beam, Battaglia, Tesio, Whirlaway 97: Cape Town- won FL Derby, Holy Bull, placed Blue Grass Time Limit- won Hutcheson, Spectacular Bid, placed Risen Star, broke down Jim Beam Real Quiet- placed SA Derby, San Felipe, won KY Derby, Preakness, placed Belmont 98: Exploit- won San Vincente, injured March Vicar- won FOY, FL Derby, placed Blue Grass Grits N Hard Toast- won Holy Bull 99: Captain Steve- placed SA Derby, LA Derby, Santa Catalina Mighty- won LA Derby, placed Risen Star, Le Comte 00: Dollar Bill- won Risen Star, placed Blue Grass 01: Repent- won LA Derby, Risen Star, placed Illinois Derby Request For Parole- won Battaglia, placed Jim Beam 03: The Cliff's Edge- won Blue Grass, placed FL Derby, Sam Davis 06: Any Given Saturday- won Sam Davis, placed TB Derby, Wood Dominican- won Blue Grass, Rushaway 08: Capt. Candyman Can- won Hutcheson, Bay Shore
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#34
03-23-2010, 01:48 PM
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Odysseus will need to move up but he's now had the "tough race" that I llike to see a horse have before he gets to the Derby. He'll need to be sharp to take on Eskendereya.
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RIP Monroe.
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#35
03-23-2010, 01:51 PM
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Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby the choices now as opposed to Wood and Arkansas...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#36
03-23-2010, 01:52 PM
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And I'm not counting Street Sense in this because that was the BC and the BC doesn't count as a fall race at CD, even though it was that year.
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#37
03-23-2010, 01:53 PM
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1) that numeric pace is a larger set than setups I have reasons for thinking that this is just not the case. So, basically, I'm being dogmatic because I don't want to go from the more to the less comprehensive? I think anyone new to the game should just stay away from numbers (of any kind). They should focus on understanding race dynamics and when they get to a certain level they can then incorporate numbers into their game. This is clearly not the way things are done, as reading comments for just about any race clearly indicates how lacking people are when it comes to understanding race dynamics. Of course, they certain don't lack the ability to point out the fast or slow horses. Anybody can reason about regularities in a model. The idea, however, is to understand how they apply to the thing that's modeled.
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#38
03-23-2010, 01:55 PM
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#39
03-23-2010, 02:02 PM
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First of all, I never made your first assumption. I agree that people learning the game would be FAR better off taking the time to understand how races are run and how this affects the outcome and performances of the participants before they incorperate speed figures. This does not mean that speed figures aren't valuable...it is a completely different concept. You have continued to suggest speed figures are useless. You are the one that espouses a dogmatic approach to the game. Just because your methods may be more comprehensive doesn't mean they are everything.....and that is all I am saying.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#40
03-23-2010, 02:03 PM
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Don't let us stop you. I suggest getting there early.....parking's a bitch.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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