Alphie's Bet

golfer · #1 12-06-2009, 06:33 AM

From yesterday's 6th at Hollywood Park. I have no idea if this horse will turn out to be anything special, but he showed a pretty strong late kick. Perhaps he needs to go farther than 6 furlongs, but it sure couldn't have hurt had Mike Smith gotten him moving a bit sooner. Watch the replay, and decide for yourself.

10 pnt move up · #2 12-06-2009, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

From yesterday's 6th at Hollywood Park. I have no idea if this horse will turn out to be anything special, but he showed a pretty strong late kick. Perhaps he needs to go farther than 6 furlongs, but it sure couldn't have hurt had Mike Smith gotten him moving a bit sooner. Watch the replay, and decide for yourself.

I bet this horse yesterday, I thought the rider was on an all out drive from the 3/8ths pole after being outrun early, looked really non threatening before this massive late rush. Maybe blinkers, maybe going long, maybe not that good but I am not sure how much more a speedy gate rider like Smith could have done with a horse with zero early speed.

golfer · #3 12-22-2009, 04:13 PM

Entered Saturday going 1 1/16 at Santa Anita, in the Cal Breeders Championship Stakes???

Smith jumps off, connections must think pretty highly of this maiden, or they are just nuts.

I re-watched the replay a while back, really hard to tell what to make of this horse, the head-on shows nothing, but the pan shows him FLYING at the end. We'll see Saturday.

golfer · #4 12-27-2009, 07:24 AM

finished 2nd in the Stakes race yesterday... not bad for his 3rd lifetime start. Unfortunately, I needed him to WIN

10 pnt move up · #5 12-28-2009, 11:50 AM

I am going to bet against this horse next time in a maiden, classic look of a hanger to me.

golfer · #6 12-28-2009, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am going to bet against this horse next time in a maiden, classic look of a hanger to me.

Obviously, next out in a maiden special, he won't be 14-1, more likely fairly big favorite, and there is usually nothing wrong with trying to beat the favorite. You may be right about him being a hanger, but he was last at the top of the stretch in a 10 horse stakes race, and passed all but one, and that one got a perfect trip, and was the fastest going in. So, I will need more evidence one way or the other to draw a conclusion.