Midshipman returns Friday in BEL 3rd (2:04pm)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

Pretty false. While there obviously are some horses who either love or hate slop/highways, there are many more who either love or hate synthetics. It's not an alterated dirt track, it's a third surface. Quick, how many horses can you name that are GSWs winners on dirt and synthetics? Bet I can name more than have won graded stakes over fast and off tracks.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I can't believe u think that they are better?!

Chill with the sarcasim... I have!! At this point in the 3 yr old seasson, its really not even a question. Regal Ransom is also better. Desert Party might even be better.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

I really dont think he will be overbet, off of his 2 yr old championship and todays comeback he will be what he should be. Its up to us to either try to beat him or lean on him.

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

that isn't really what I am saying at all.

My point is that most good horses are versatile enough to handle the pro-ride surface just fine. I am not saying that handling the surface is a big issue. - most of the horses that are good enough to make it to the BC Mile also happen to be versatile enough that they will like pro-ride just fine. The surface isn't a big deal. There may be one or two with extremely one-dimensional running styles or pedigrees and those are the exceptions, the other nine or ten or whatever runners will race according to their ability and opportunity. For most players, handicapping will be just like any other race - gain an accurate insight of the reality of the sport. Only then would you look for bias - first those bias with the betting public, and then maybe as it pertains to forwardly placed runners or closers.

I disagree with a good horse being versatile enough to handle a certain surface as well as another. The surface is a big deal too. You can take a horse that is a 110 beyer horse on the dirt and he could still be a very good horse on the pro-ride but more of a 100 beyer horse. In the Breeders Cup it is very important the horse likes the surface because at that level of competition there is certain to be a horse in every race that runs well on the surface.

There are your Zenyatta's and Colonel John's that run well on both and there are your horses that are clearly better on dirt or better on a synthetic.

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pretty false. While there obviously are some horses who either love or hate slop/highways, there are many more who either love or hate synthetics. It's not an alterated dirt track, it's a third surface. Quick, how many horses can you name that are GSWs winners on dirt and synthetics? Bet I can name more than have won graded stakes over fast and off tracks.

Actually you are twisting what I said. My point was that horses take to the track or they don't which is absolutely true. There is nothing false about my statement if you read it correctly.

And your argument doesn't really hold any weight unless you can give me percentages. Of course more horses have won on dirt and off tracks because they run most of their races on dirt. And I have no idea what GSW has to do with anything. The point was horses (claimers or graded stakes winners) either take to the track or they do not. Many trainers have pointed this out repeatedly when they ship their horses in a day or two before a race instead of a week before the race.

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I really dont think he will be overbet, off of his 2 yr old championship and todays comeback he will be what he should be. Its up to us to either try to beat him or lean on him.

You could be right but I would guess he will be overbet on reputation alone and I think that race will have some prominent European grass milers in it who do not want to face Goldikova on the turf.

As for what he should be, I think he should be 30-1 if the field is just an average group and I would guess he will be 10-1 or shorter. So I think he will be overbet.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

But WHO would do that here????

me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

me.

Your a special case, I dont say anything because I would like to hang around this time.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Chill with the sarcasim... I have!! At this point in the 3 yr old seasson, its really not even a question. Regal Ransom is also better. Desert Party might even be better.

I think it's more of question if instead of Pioneer(not the cream of the crop), and Mine That Bird(beneficiary of the best derby setup of all time), we should really be comparing these second-half heroes to the pre-derby version of IWR,Quality Road,and Rachel (and I will stubbornly say a pre-derby Friesan Fire, although when he followed his legit excuse in the Derby by racing directly against the teeth of the bias in the Preakness circumstances made it impossible to know if a horse dismissed by many a wise-guy was really ever grade I material at all.) These three were pretty tough regardless of what has or hasn't happened since the derby.

Desert Party was better than his stablemate at a classic distance, but appeared to be out classed in general.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Your a special case, I dont say anything because I would like to hang around this time.

I love when people call me special!

In actuality Joseph, you were kicked off once without knowing it and I talked Byk into permitting you to return, before you even realized what happened.

I'm probably the staunchest defender of PG1985 there is! Few things on here are more entertaining than the affect you have on some posters!

Paradoxically, I also enjoy giving you grief. Mainly, I think, because you are you!

[pick4]

Midshipman ran well today. He pressed and overtook Just Ben while running into the following pace 22.46, 44.72, 1:08.85, 1:15.83. Those were fast splits. He drifted in the lane but he still ran the fractions and could improve. First off a long layoff and first time on an all dirt course. If he runs in the BC Mile he is a legit contender. But until the card is drawn its all speculation. Nonetheless he ran well and looks like he is a serious racehorese.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

I don't see how that's right. How can a horse have an advantage over a horse that might be better than him on a given surface? They might be a more known commodity but that doesn't mean they have an advantage. Did the horses facing Secretariat in the Man o'War have an advantage over him because they had history on the surface and he didn't? Did the horses in the BC Turf in 1989 have an advantage over Prized? You can't have an advantage over another if that other is better than you on that surface. The thing is that you just don't know if they are better or not because they haven't tried it.