Pioneer of the Nile

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Who exactly has done this? You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than finding one of those.

Why do you say that. There are at least 20 horses worldwide in this league(save Japan). 10 in this Ky. As for Europe I would GUESS there are at least 8 and Australia has 2 or 3.. It's not like it doesn't happen. Even 10 years at 50 is a big time earner.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Why do you say that. There are at least 20 horses worldwide in this league(save Japan). 10 in this Ky. As for Europe I would GUESS there are at least 8 and Australia has 2 or 3.. It's not like it doesn't happen. Even 10 years at 50 is a big time earner.

So out of the 60000 or so horses born a year worldwide, on average there is about one or two a year?

[freddymo]

I think that of the 60k born only 20k are realistically capable of being such a horse

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I think that of the 60k born only 20k are realistically capable of being such a horse

I would say about 3k but who is counting?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I would say about 3k but who is counting?

if it is only 3k then getting 30 of the 3k gives you a 1% chance in striking gold. Figure it would cost 200k per horse on average so a 6mil investment gets you a 1% shot at a 75mil earner. BUT the 6 mil invest has some inherit value as you will earn something back on some of the horses. If you are right that it is only 3k such horses getting 30 for 6 mil isn't a horrible business plan,,

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

if it is only 3k then getting 30 of the 3k gives you a 1% chance in striking gold. Figure it would cost 200k per horse on average so a 6mil investment gets you a 1% shot at a 75mil earner. BUT the 6 mil invest has some inherit value as you will earn something back on some of the horses. If you are right that it is only 3k such horses getting 30 for 6 mil isn't a horrible business plan,,

However of those 3k how many are available to be purchased? The odds are still monumentally long that any of those 3000 make it.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

However of those 3k how many are available to be purchased? The odds are still monumentally long that any of those 3000 make it.

Actually if you own 30 of the only 3k then you own 1% of the elidgible hence your odds are exactly 1 in 300. BUT your 3k is a very bad fig

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Actually if you own 30 of the only 3k then you own 1% of the elidgible hence your odds are exactly 1 in 300. BUT your 3k is a very bad fig

How so? It may be less. Exactly how many horses have the pedigree to stand for that kind of price?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How so? It may be less. Exactly how many horses have the pedigree to stand for that kind of price?

Tiznow?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Tiznow?

2 BC classics is pretty tough to do and he didnt start at a real high price. He was 25k 2 years ago

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

2 BC classics is pretty tough to do and he didnt start at a real high price. He was 25k 2 years ago

The discussion is about potential stallions that can demand 75-100 plus 10 years. St. B started at 2 dollars Tiznow nobody wanted to breed to because they needed Friends Friggin Lake.. Imgine Friends Lake? Once you throw Tiznow into the equation 3k foals becomes a BAD FIG. There are 10k with a better page then a Tiznow every year.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

2 BC classics is pretty tough to do and he didnt start at a real high price. He was 25k 2 years ago

Tiznow was actually 50k to start, but somehow dropped after his first couple of crops hit the track. I thought that was pretty strange.