Beyer Questions??????? - Page 2

CSC · #21 08-06-2009, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Left Bank's 121 Beyer was fairly cut and dry.

He ran a 121 in his prior start.

2nd place Street Cry ran a 119 in his prior start.

3rd place Lido Palace ran a 113 last time out

He ran 9 furlongs in a track record equaling 1:47 flat.

The only other 9 furlong dirt race of the day was won by Connie's Magic in 1:51.59

Connie's Magic, in victory, ran a mere 44 points less than the time for Left Bank's win.

Connie's Magic returned the following Wednesday to win by 5 lengths and pay $6.70 going nine furlongs. He did so despite breaking from the 11 hole and going 5 wide on both turns. His Beyer was a few points higher than what he got when he won the day he went 4.59 seconds slower than Left Bank for the distance.

Did Macho Uno beyer 116 for 4th? If so that seemed somewhat high to me, regardless the Street Cry in the Whitney didn't resemble the one that won the Stephen Foster. That 119 was far more impressive than his second place to LB. It just seems to me the number was high, especially for a stretching out sprinter.

VOL JACK · #22 08-06-2009, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...ers+understand

I think we could see a 120 Beyer this Saturday.

In the Whitney?? Alot more likely that Fab Strike runs one Sunday, and that is very unlikely.

RockHardTen1985 · #23 08-06-2009, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

In the Whitney?? Alot more likely that Fab Strike runs one Sunday, and that is very unlikely.

Dont you have a pm for me ?

The Indomitable DrugS · #24 08-06-2009, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Did Macho Uno beyer 116 for 4th? If so that seemed somewhat high to me, regardless the Street Cry in the Whitney didn't resemble the one that won the Stephen Foster. That 119 was far more impressive than his second place to LB. It just seems to me the number was high, especially for a stretching out sprinter.

Macho Uno showed no speed, was never involved, and steadily backed up against a weak field at 3/5 odds in his next start - which was at Arlington. He was toast.

He had run 5 straight Beyers between 110 and 116 coming into that race.

When a horse runs light years below their steady and consistant form ... it's typically a sign that something is wrong, not a sign that they're last race was overrated.

Sometimes horses will recover, sometimes they won't.

Skip Away ran 3 straight Beyers between 112 and 115 - and in his next start was 3rd beaten 7 lengths at 3/5 odds with a 92 Beyer. Isitingood and Spirtbound drilled him at Lone Star Park.

Even though that clearly wasn't the real Skip Away .. he bounced back to his old self... in fact better than his old self .. as if something holding him back a little was found and corrected.

Take a horse like Discreet Cat, who ran a series of 116 Beyer races as a 3yo. He goes to Dubai, gets sick, and is scratched from his prep.

In the World Cup, he shows no speed, breaks last, and finishes last by 23 behind some Turkey and Suadi Arabaian horses. People who don't understand racing think a performance like that is somehow a black mark against his previous races.

In his case, he was toast. They never could get him to do more than run like a high priced claimer after that.

chucklestheclown · #25 08-06-2009, 11:12 PM

NEVER look at PPs

parsixfarms · #26 08-07-2009, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If you look at the Thoro-Graph figures .. claimers now a days are faster than Alysheba.

Isn't this why it's hard to take seriously some of these figure-makers' recent hyperbolic claims like Big Brown ran the "fastest" Derby ever?

CSC · #27 08-07-2009, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Macho Uno showed no speed, was never involved, and steadily backed up against a weak field at 3/5 odds in his next start - which was at Arlington. He was toast.

He had run 5 straight Beyers between 110 and 116 coming into that race.

When a horse runs light years below their steady and consistant form ... it's typically a sign that something is wrong, not a sign that they're last race was overrated.

I always thought Macho Uno was overrated, of the 3 that came out of that BC Juvenile I thought Street Cry was the best horse, his problem was he had problems staying healthy. In the breeding shed he has been the most prolific and we certainly saw glimpes of just how talented he was in the DWC and The Foster. When it comes to Point Given there are always 2 differing views, the most glaring weakness on his record in my mind is he never faced any real competition, he was retired at the time to the ol suspensory injury or something like that, sounded a little dubious to me at the time.

The Indomitable DrugS · #28 08-07-2009, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Isn't this why it's hard to take seriously some of these figure-makers' recent hyperbolic claims like Big Brown ran the "fastest" Derby ever?

To a degree yes. They have every type of horse getting A LOT faster.

Here is what a Thoro-Graph Kentucky Derby involving every winner since 1986 would look like.

Winner: Big Brown (2008) -4.75 (1st by 5 lengths)

2nd: Barbaro (2006) -2.25 (2nd beaten 5 lengths)

3rd: Street Sense (2007) -2.00 (3rd beaten 5.5 lengths)

4th: Smarty Jones (2004) -1.75 (4th beaten 6 lengths)

5th: Mine That Bird (2009) -0.75 (beaten 8 lengths)

5th: Monarchos (2001) -0.75 (beaten 8 lengths)

7th: War Emblem (2002) -0.50 (beaten 8.5 lengths)

8th: Giacomo (2005) 0.50 (beaten 10.5 lengths)

9th: Funny Cide (2003) 1.50 (beaten 12.5 lengths)

10th: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) 2.75 (beaten 15 lengths)

10th: Silver Charm 2.75 (beaten 15 lengths)

12th: Thunder Gulch 3.50 (beaten 16.5 lengths)

12th: Charismatic 3.50 (beaten 16.5 lengths)

14th: Real Quiet 3.75 (beaten 17 lengths)

15th: Go For Gin 4.00 (beaten 17.5 lengths)

15th: Unbridled 4.00 (beaten 17.5 lengths)

17th: Grindstone 5.00 (beaten 19.5 lengths)

18th: Lil E Tee 5.50 (beaten 20.5 lengths)

18th Sea Hero 5.50 (beaten 20.5 lengths)

20th: Strike The Gold 6.00 (beaten 21.5 lengths)

20th: Alysheba 6.00 (beaten 21.5 lengths)

22nd: Sunday Silence 6.25 (beaten 22 lengths)

23rd: Winning Colors 6.50 (beaten 22.5 lengths

24th: Ferdinand 7.00 (beaten 23.5 lengths)

Basically, if you believe TG, horses have become 20 lengths faster at about all class levels since the days of Alysheba .... the days when Jack Van Berg was king of racing. Now, Jack Van Berg is a hysterically incompetent bum who knows absolutely nothing about training horses ... and consistantly wins at 3% year in and year out.

But yeah, if you want to believe Big Brown is the fastest Derby winner ever.... you also have to believe that Recapture The Glory ran about 10 lengths better while getting pummled - than great horses like Sunday Silence, Alysheba, and Ferdinand did in victory.

VOL JACK · #29 08-07-2009, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Dont you have a pm for me ?

I forgot to ask him. I will.

parsixfarms · #30 08-07-2009, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

To a degree yes. They have every type of horse getting A LOT faster.

It begs the question "why"?

And it's the same with the Ragozin sheets. A Hall of Fame horse like Holy Bull's top lifetime Ragozin figure was a 2.5 (ironically, not his Met Mile, Travers or Woodward, but the Olympic Handicap as a 4YO). I think three horses in Monday's Amsterdam had figures as low (Quality Road, Everyday Heroes and Capt. Candyman Can), two of whom could never be mentioned in the same conversation as the Bull.