Random post-Derby thoughts - Page 2

blackthroatedwind · #21 05-10-2009, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Andy, I respect your opinions. But this has to be the most vague answer to a specific question that I have ever seen on DT.

Fair enough, but think of it historically. People talked about him as a TC kind of horse and he isn't even as fast as Giacomo.

fpsoxfan · #22 05-10-2009, 06:45 PM

First confrontational, now vague. I guess until you hear want you want to hear, no answer will be good enough for you.

justindew · #23 05-10-2009, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Fair enough, but think of it historically. People talked about him as a TC kind of horse and he isn't even as fast as Giacomo.

Based on what? Beyer Speed Figures? Thoro-graph?

Here. I'll give you a few suggestions for the "POTN Standard".....

-Pioneerof The Nile must run a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 or higher on dirt in order for me to admit he is a "dirt horse."

-Pioneerof The Nile must win a Grade I on dirt.....

-Pioneerof The Nile must win any graded stakes race on dirt while earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or higher...

justindew · #24 05-10-2009, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

First confrontational, now vague. I guess until you hear want you want to hear, no answer will be good enough for you.

Um, I called your response "non-confrontational", and Andy admitted he was being vague.

Jesus. Can anyone on this website understand that not everyone is being a sarcastic a-hole? Can anyone read?

blackthroatedwind · #25 05-10-2009, 06:51 PM

Speed figures certainly help. But it's also a matter of reasonable judgement of talent. Call this vague if you want but it's not necessarily definable.

fpsoxfan · #26 05-10-2009, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Um, I called your response "non-confrontational", and Andy admitted he was being vague.

Jesus. Can anyone on this website understand that not everyone is being a sarcastic a-hole? Can anyone read?

Wow man. Relax. You seem like a good guy. It's just you asked a question and people are responding. Good luck in the Preakness!

justindew · #27 05-10-2009, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Speed figures certainly help. But it's also a matter of reasonable judgement of talent. Call this vague if you want but it's not necessarily definable.

OK. That's fine. But it also means you will never have to admit you are wrong about POTN. Right?

Thus, this debate will always continue. Which is fine. I'm just sayin'.

justindew · #28 05-10-2009, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Wow man. Relax. You seem like a good guy. It's just you asked a question and people are responding. Good luck in the Preakness!

I'm not a good guy. I'm a very, very bad and dangerous man.

Sightseek · #29 05-10-2009, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

OK. That's fine. But it also means you will never have to admit you are wrong about POTN. Right?

Thus, this debate will always continue. Which is fine. I'm just sayin'.

Can you honestly say that while watching him down the stretch in the Derby you felt like you were watching a good horse?

Danzig · #30 05-10-2009, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

While I appreciate your non-confrontational response, I must remind you that I never said anyone was wrong or that I was right. I merely asked those who are anti-POTN to state, for the record, exactly what they think about the horse AND what has to happen for them to change their minds.

When I asked "What does POTN have to do...", I legitimately wanted to know what they feel he has to do.

is anyone really anti-POTN? wanting to see success on dirt to answer if a horse has dirt form doesn't make one anti-anything-execpt maybe anti-speculation based on breeding alone. i'm a person who has to see something to believe it can happen-just like most of us had to see mine that bird actually win that thing to think he had a shot at the derby.

i think POTN needs to win a top race on a fast dirt surface, while facing top horses. it's a shame that the field fell apart, and what looked like one of the better derby renewals we've had in a while turned into a scratch filled slopfest. imo the derby is a toss, the results aren't meaningful, since many of the better thought of horses left in the field failed to run their race. or, i think they did. maybe some horses were under-, and others, over-rated. that's why i'm hoping the preakness has better weather and a fast track.

Bobby Fischer · #31 05-10-2009, 07:00 PM

POTN was a terrible bet for the Derby.
He was probably one of the top 5 contenders, and possibly worse. He was bet to 6-1. He had little potential to run a big race.

We had a very odd Derby where 2 more talented horses had nightmare trips (FF, Dunkirk).

POTN finished 2nd in slow time, and needed a foul by his jockey to hold 2nd.

The people who said that Pioneer of the Nile had no value were correct. The result doesn't change that.

ateamstupid · #32 05-10-2009, 07:01 PM

Nick and Andy both nailed it, and you've got it backwards. POTN was relatively slow before the Derby. People who hammered him to 6-1 were the ones making the assumption - that he'd improve on dirt. He had to in order to contend for the win. People who tossed him were simply saying that if he doesn't improve on dirt, which he didn't, he won't win. I don't call that "pure speculation."

And he's still relatively slow. He ran OK in the Derby and anyone who thinks he ran better has some explaining to do, not us. He was stomped by the winner, drifted out badly and should've been DQ'ed from 2nd.

The argument wasn't "he's going to suck on dirt" or "he won't be a dirt horse," it was "he'll have to be faster on dirt than he was on synthetic to win big dirt races." He still isn't. He's still an average three-year-old. Maybe that'll change in Pimlico, but he's still average, and how you think otherwise is puzzling.

blackthroatedwind · #33 05-10-2009, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

OK. That's fine. But it also means you will never have to admit you are wrong about POTN. Right?

Thus, this debate will always continue. Which is fine. I'm just sayin'.

Certainly you realize I couldn't care less about admitting whether I am right or not.......right? I do it all the time....it's basically a given considering my job. If Pioneer of the Nile excedes my opinion of him I will certainly let you know.

I get it, I have a big ego, but it's so big that it allows me to readily admit when I am wrong.

justindew · #34 05-10-2009, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Can you honestly say that while watching him down the stretch in the Derby you felt like you were watching a good horse?

I think the jury is still out, which is part of the reason for my post.

I thought he ran a pretty nice race in the Derby. He was up close early, put away the front-runners (who were of questionable ablity, I agree), and then held off two pretty good horses (while possibly interfering) for 2nd. On a track that he had every right (as did everyone) to dislike, I feel like it was a pretty solid effort.

I think Pioneerof The Nile will win a Grade I on dirt someday. Does that make him "good"? No. Frost Giant is a Grade I winner. But POTN has faced 47 opponents in his last 5 races, and he's beaten 46 of them. And he's won two Grade Is in the process, and finished 2nd in another Grade I on dirt.

justindew · #35 05-10-2009, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Certainly you realize I couldn't care less about admitting whether I am right or not.......right? I do it all the time....it's basically a given considering my job. If Pioneer of the Nile excedes my opinion of him I will certainly let you know.

I get it, I have a big ego, but it's so big that it allows me to readily admit when I am wrong.

Well, wait a minute Andy. I don't think you're being fair here. You and others have been calling those of us who think POTN is good "wrong" for a while. And you are entitled to your opinion. I'm less interested in hearing you admit you are wrong (which I have heard you do before) and more interested in what the standard is for this one particular horse. That's all.

This is a debate. And I like debates about racing. But I don't see anything wrong with agreeing on what the actual debate is, so to speak.

justindew · #36 05-10-2009, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Nick and Andy both nailed it, and you've got it backwards. POTN was relatively slow before the Derby. People who hammered him to 6-1 were the ones making the assumption - that he'd improve on dirt. He had to in order to contend for the win. People who tossed him were simply saying that if he doesn't improve on dirt, which he didn't, he won't win. I don't call that "pure speculation."

And he's still relatively slow. He ran OK in the Derby and anyone who thinks he ran better has some explaining to do, not us. He was stomped by the winner, drifted out badly and should've been DQ'ed from 2nd.

The argument wasn't "he's going to suck on dirt" or "he won't be a dirt horse," it was "he'll have to be faster on dirt than he was on synthetic to win big dirt races." He still isn't. He's still an average three-year-old. Maybe that'll change in Pimlico, but he's still average, and how you think otherwise is puzzling.

Ok. And if speed figures are the measure, and if they are accurate, then you are correct.

Although, I have to point out that a number of people (maybe not you) said he was a turf horse because he started his career on turf and Mott felt dirt was his 3rd-best surface.

justindew · #37 05-10-2009, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

POTN was a terrible bet for the Derby.
He was probably one of the top 5 contenders, and possibly worse. He was bet to 6-1. He had little potential to run a big race.

We had a very odd Derby where 2 more talented horses had nightmare trips (FF, Dunkirk).

POTN finished 2nd in slow time, and needed a foul by his jockey to hold 2nd.

The people who said that Pioneer of the Nile had no value were correct. The result doesn't change that.

Pioneerof The Nile was 6-1 in the Derby. In a manner of speaking, this represents a less-than-15% chance of winning.

Now, let's say you were planning to bet against POTN, yet you would have admitted before the race that if he DID handle the dirt, he was among the most likely winners. By betting against POTN, you are essentially saying "I think there is less than a 15% chance that POTN will handle dirt." (I know, I'm simplifying this for effect, but for the sake of argument...)

To put it another way, if you thought that POTN was a potential winner IF he handled dirt, AND if you felt the likelihood of him handling dirt was higher than 15%, then it is easily arguable that he DID offer value.

gales0678 · #38 05-10-2009, 07:24 PM

Justin - i would love to see POTN run against Quality Road

Maybe after the TC BB can keep him here in NY and run in the Jim Dandy and then the Travers stakes

If he can win those types of races my guess is that people's opinion of him will chage

blackthroatedwind · #39 05-10-2009, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Well, wait a minute Andy. I don't think you're being fair here. You and others have been calling those of us who think POTN is good "wrong" for a while. And you are entitled to your opinion. I'm less interested in hearing you admit you are wrong (which I have heard you do before) and more interested in what the standard is for this one particular horse. That's all.

This is a debate. And I like debates about racing. But I don't see anything wrong with agreeing on what the actual debate is, so to speak.

Well, in this case my record of disagreeing with you has some relevance.....and I think you know that it's been pretty strong overall.

No, that doesn't necessarily make me correct this time, but it surely gives my opinion the necessary credibility in this case.

justindew · #40 05-10-2009, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, in this case my record of disagreeing with you has some relevance.....and I think you know that it's been pretty strong overall.

No, that doesn't necessarily make me correct this time, but it surely gives my opinion the necessary credibility in this case.

I disagree with this entire post.

And Zanjero came within half a length of winning a Grade I. We'll call that one a tie.

And Bittel Road has yet to appear in a claiming race. Score one for me.

I'll concede that Nobiz Like Shobiz was NOT the best of his generation.

Justin: 1
Andy: 1
Tie: 1