Derby Future Wager -- Pool III - Page 2

Kasept · #21 04-05-2009, 01:10 PM

2pm Future Prices:

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 40
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 18
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 66
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 7

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 59
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 27
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 41
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 80
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 30

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 99
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 11
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 11
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 5
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 44

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 52
21 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 10 17
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 52
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other Three Ye 10 17

Kasept · #22 04-05-2009, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52

[/b]

These three look like the value right now...

Chocolate needs to get a little higher to assure of being a better price here than Derby Day. Dunkirk is going to get in and 12-1 would be OK considering he will be less for Derby. Should Papa Clem win at Oaklawn next week, that 52-1 will be twice what you'll get May 2.

Dunbar · #23 04-05-2009, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

These three look like the value right now...

2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52

Chocolate needs to get a little higher to assure of being a better price here than Derby Day. Dunkirk is going to get in and 12-1 would be OK considering he will be less for Derby. Should Papa Clem win at Oaklawn next week, that 52-1 will be twice what you'll get May 2.

I'd factor in at least 10% for the chance that the horse will not make it to the Derby for various reasons (mainly illness or injury). If I knew Chocolate Candy would be 20-1 on Derby Day if it runs, then I'd prefer that to taking 22-1 today. (Not saying I like the horse at that price--no opinion really)

--Dunbar

jpops757 · #24 04-05-2009, 08:32 PM

Mr hot stuff surely ran better yesterday than his 99/1 odds. Of course he is going to need more improvement to be a win posibility.

philcski · #25 04-05-2009, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

He wasn't going to get 8.5f or 9f either... Horses that run 9f competitively and finish in :37.0 and :12.2 will add a 10th furlong just fine. He's hardly a likely Derby winner, but those that have dismissed him non-stop should probably find someone else to belittle at this point.

Wasn't knocking him, in fact I like the horse- hey, I'd love to see him win compared to other potentials, including the probable post time favorite. He certainly impressed me yesterday more than I would have expected. I just really feel strongly that he's not a 10F horse and could make a ton of money in the "Silly Season" Derbies instead of giving a run and potentially getting knocked out in Kentucky.

Kasept · #26 04-06-2009, 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Wasn't knocking him, in fact I like the horse- hey, I'd love to see him win compared to other potentials, including the probable post time favorite. He certainly impressed me yesterday more than I would have expected. I just really feel strongly that he's not a 10F horse and could make a ton of money in the "Silly Season" Derbies instead of giving a run and potentially getting knocked out in Kentucky.

Phil,

I think they would be crazy not to try Derby. Look at his fractions from Saturday:

:24.4
:23.2 (:48.1)
:24.3 (:48.0)
:24.3 (:49.1)
:12.2 (:37.0)

This is the kind of horse that can light the exotics at 35-1 by running evenly all the way around and finishing third or fourth. Even though he's not bred for it, think Steppenwolfer or Imawildncrazyguy type performer. Derek Ryan insisted to me that this horse has the type of disposition and action to keep on going at a steady clip. I was incredulous too, but it's tough to deny him about it now. And he's of course done a great job picking spots with him to make the money he has. Having Coa involved is the biggest drawback. He could screw up a wet dream.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #27 04-06-2009, 07:48 AM

jon white called p.o.n the tripple crown winner on hr yesterday..vercurzy rolled eyes and went ..i want revenge

Kasept · #28 04-06-2009, 08:11 AM

POOL 3 FINALS

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 45
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 18
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 16
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 11
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 77
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 8

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 53
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 24
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 54
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 73
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 25

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 96
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 47
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 9
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 6
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 42

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 47
21 The Pamplemousse SUSPENDED
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 49
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other 3yo's 10 17

gales0678 · #29 04-06-2009, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Wasn't knocking him, in fact I like the horse- hey, I'd love to see him win compared to other potentials, including the probable post time favorite. He certainly impressed me yesterday more than I would have expected. I just really feel strongly that he's not a 10F horse and could make a ton of money in the "Silly Season" Derbies instead of giving a run and potentially getting knocked out in Kentucky.

he is just getting bigger , stronger , and better each week in training

derek is suprisied at how each week he is improving and doing more

-BT- · #30 04-06-2009, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

POOL 3 FINALS

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 45
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 18
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 16
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 11
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 77
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 8

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 53
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 24
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 54
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 73
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 25

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 96
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 47
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 9
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 6
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 42

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 47
21 The Pamplemousse SUSPENDED
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 49
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other 3yo's 10 17

i don't even like Musket Man to win the derby, but at that price i would take a small stab. And since the IWR freakshow this past weekend the bettors went crazy and left a lot of value on the table (highlighted horses i doubt would be higher on derby day)

-bt-

Kasept · #31 04-06-2009, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

i don't even like Musket Man to win the derby, but at that price i would take a small stab. And since the IWR freakshow this past weekend the bettors went crazy and left a lot of value on the table (highlighted horses i doubt would be higher on derby day)

-bt-

bt,

I'm not sure Musket won't be a HIGHER number Derby Day... And as I mentioned yesterday, that 47-1 on Papa Clem is gonna look mighty juicy if he runs big in the Arkansas Derby. Interesting how much Chocolate Candy came down in the last 4 hours of wagering yesterday too...

Dunbar · #32 04-06-2009, 09:26 AM

I was curious how much money had been bet on Pamplemousse before betting was "suspended".

Final odds on The Pamplemousse would have to have been 24.2-1 for the track takeout to be 16%. There was $268,880 in the win pool. After 16% takeout there will be $225,859 for the winning entry. If you solve for X in: ($225,859-X)/X = 24.2, you find X = $8962. That's the amount of money that went down the drain on The Pamplemousse in the Future Wager.

Those who bet on Pamplemousse early (and lost their bets) changed the track takeout for those who bet on the other 23 entries from 16% to an effective 13.1%.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #33 04-06-2009, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

i don't even like Musket Man to win the derby, but at that price i would take a small stab. And since the IWR freakshow this past weekend the bettors went crazy and left a lot of value on the table (highlighted horses i doubt would be higher on derby day)

-bt-

I thought the 42-1 on Regal Ransom was generous. Is there really less than a 2.5% chance that this horse could win the Derby?

--Dunbar

slotdirt · #34 04-06-2009, 09:33 AM

The day that a Yonaguska colt wins the Derby is the day I quit betting.

-BT- · #35 04-06-2009, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I thought the 42-1 on Regal Ransom was generous. Is there really less than a 2.5% chance that this horse could win the Derby?

--Dunbar

IMO, its a little more of a risky bet (not that the whole future pool in general isn't) But Godolphin could wish wash it at the last minute and only bring 1 or none over. But 42-1 is a solid number if you're a backer

-bt-

CSC · #36 04-06-2009, 10:46 AM

If I Want Revenge can improve going east and on traditional dirt, is it possible to say the same thing about Pioneer of the Nile? I wouldn't say he is under the radar, but it seems the Santa Anita Derby is the least impressive prep from a chatter and beyer perspective. Considering he is now 11-1 and IWR is 9/2 now, I'd put a few bucks down on him in the futures on him and hope he can run faster on traditional dirt.

Scurlogue Champ · #37 04-06-2009, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I thought the 42-1 on Regal Ransom was generous. Is there really less than a 2.5% chance that this horse could win the Derby?

--Dunbar

I think there is less than a 2.5% chance that he'll run in the Derby.

philcski · #38 04-06-2009, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

If I Want Revenge can improve going east and on traditional dirt, is it possible to say the same thing about Pioneer of the Nile? I wouldn't say he is under the radar, but it seems the Santa Anita Derby is the least impressive prep from a chatter and beyer perspective. Considering he is now 11-1 and IWR is 9/2 now, I'd put a few bucks down on him in the futures on him and hope he can run faster on traditional dirt.

Sure, but keep in mind the point of playing a future wager is to get a better price than on Derby Day- and I'd be surprised if he's under 10-1.

CSC · #39 04-06-2009, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Sure, but keep in mind the point of playing a future wager is to get a better price than on Derby Day- and I'd be surprised if he's under 10-1.

Good point, I doubt his odds will be be much different derby day. However, that's unless the Haskin effect kicks in, I think he has a secret membership in the Baffert fan club...I don't know as a punter you are always looking for angles, and a month and 1/2 ago IWR would have been double the odds of POTN, Baffert horses usually run better on traditional dirt and this horse is sort of under the radar which makes him very attractive at 11-1.