Pick 4 methodology - Page 2

zippyneedsawin · #21 08-07-2006, 10:26 AM

I find I have more success in P-4's where I go deep early and shallow late. (But that's usually because I have a horse I'm singling in the featured race of the day at a big track).
-I have a question for CJ.. Do you track and compare Pick-4 payouts among different tracks? I have no scientific or hard math to back this up, but it seems like Pick-4 payouts are usually lower than I expect them to be at NYRA tracks versus others(more often than they should.) Do you find some tracks have better payouts than others for pick-4's (in general)?

ceejay · #22 08-07-2006, 11:19 AM

I haven't really noticed that but when I play them it's usually @ KY-NYRA-SoCal.

#23 08-07-2006, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Yo Pat, you know the pool size, I always look with 3MTP to see if it is worth playing. Youbet has an exotics window that shows you how much is in each pool and most CHDN tracks and some others show how much is in the pools periodically leading up to post time

But you do not know how many people have the same horses as you therefore you have no idea how the pool will be split up, therefore no idea about the reward. On a win bet you get a very close approximation, its right on the tote. Same with an exacta flashed up all the time. You can also even make some very good assumptions with place bets. I think win and place bets are vastly underplayed myself. They are a bore for many.

And again. When you play pik bets you are forced to play races in a sequence. You cannot compare this with going to the track and making 3 diff. win bets on races that are not in sequence. A bettor gets to choose exactly which races he sees an advantage in ex. the 2nd, 7th and 9th are the only 3 worth betting. You cannot compare that to well I think the rolling pick 3 at this track would be best suited by playing the 7th 8th and 9th. You cannot compare the examples given above. And if you do, it is invalid.

I have even more. I will stop. We have done this before in much longer discussions. I began this only as a way of helping people see what I see as multiple fallacies about these races. Just to trying and help. And I will again state I see a great deal of entertainment associated with these types of wagers. And entertainment is really what the game is about.

ceejay · #24 08-07-2006, 07:23 PM

I hope lots of players view this as "for entertainment only." Those $32 to 64 tickets are what puts the value there for those of us who take the P4 seriously.

SentToStud · #25 08-07-2006, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay

I hope lots of players view this as "for entertainment only." Those $32 to 64 tickets are what puts the value there for those of us who take the P4 seriously.

That's a cheap a ss shot there. You open your thread with your "let's discuss" line, then toss out the snide "dead money" reference.

I'm not sure you've accomplished anything other than paying a couple hundred dollars for someone's mother ****ing Excel formula.

You certainly didn't answer my question on hold with any degree of the "expertise" you proclaim to have.

Go back to your ****ing spreadsheet.

dellinger63 · #26 08-07-2006, 07:49 PM

I QUIT!! Newspaper and birthday #'s from now on. $5 to show on the 5 in the 1rst from the money saved not getting the form.

#27 08-07-2006, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63

I QUIT!! Newspaper and birthday #'s from now on. $5 to show on the 5 in the 1rst from the money saved not getting the form.

Dellinger did you not hit some giant pik bet? Bout a year ago?

dellinger63 · #28 08-08-2006, 06:45 AM

yea and it was a pic 6 at Saratoga. Another big one was on a BC pic 4 but if I had this damn chart I would have had it 30 times. 300K may still be around the 10K is long gone. LOL

ceejay · #29 08-08-2006, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

That's a cheap a ss shot there. You open your thread with your "let's discuss" line, then toss out the snide "dead money" reference.

I'm not sure you've accomplished anything other than paying a couple hundred dollars for someone's mother ****ing Excel formula.

You certainly didn't answer my question on hold with any degree of the "expertise" you proclaim to have.

Go back to your ****ing spreadsheet.

Sorry, I didn't mean to offend. I don't think I claimed expertise, but what questions did I not answer?

Now on to "dead money." Your words, not mine. I'm not alone in those thoughts. I refer you to pages 124-126 of Steve Crist's new book.
"The single biggest mistake most pick 4 players make is trying to hit it with the same level of investment they put into a pick 3."
"Playing the Pick 4 with an inadequate bankroll is worse than never playing the bet at all."
"...simply making out multiple tickets will give you a big leg up on the competition in the pick 4 these days."

I spose my point is that I don't believe in doing anything undercapitalized. The reason that I don't play P6's alone very often is that the total investment needed to give it it a fair run is past my "choke point."

Oh by the way, I started this thread on request: not my idea. I don't sell the spreadsheet so I don't care if you buy it!