Derby/Oaks Future Wager Pool 2 - Page 2

justindew · #21 03-11-2009, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

Fire away, watch out for Hello Broadway while you're at it.

Yeah, I might have him rated too high. We'll know more this weekend.

Dunbar · #22 03-12-2009, 03:51 PM

Here's a link to the real time Future Wager odds.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/future-wager/odds

As of right now, about 4:50EST, you can be the first to bet on the Bears Rocket/Dunkirk exacta.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #23 03-12-2009, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

exacta is misspelled on the FW page.

maybe it will pay more.

I guess you are right, because right now they are showing the "Pool Total" to be $6,886, yet somehow several of the exactas show "Exacta Odds" of 11,155.20. Is that for a 50c exacta bet, or what?

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #24 03-12-2009, 07:36 PM

Also of interest...it looks like Big Drama has taken some exacta action. That's weird. Couldn't they block betting on the "scratched" horse?

--Dunbar

Scurlogue Champ · #25 03-12-2009, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Also of interest...it looks like Big Drama has taken some exacta action. That's weird. Couldn't they block betting on the "scratched" horse?

--Dunbar

Why would they want to do that?

Dunbar · #26 03-13-2009, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

Why would they want to do that?

They don't get to keep the money. All they get is some bettors who may eventually realize that they have been totally screwed.

--Dunbar

cakes44 · #27 03-13-2009, 10:38 AM

Beethoven taking a bunch of $$ for some reason.

SniperSB23 · #28 03-13-2009, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Beethoven taking a bunch of $$ for some reason.

Cause the people that place their bets before the weekend races are run are idiots.

Thunder Gulch · #29 03-13-2009, 11:18 AM

Quality Road has drifted up to 17-1 early and without a race this weekend, he may get lost in the shuffle.

Linny · #30 03-13-2009, 12:14 PM

The panel who determines the individual betting interests has been terrible this year. In Pool 1 they had a bunch of big fig sprinters. Here they include sprinter Big Drama who hasn't run and missed at least a month of training in Feb and March. On the filly side they include a filly whose trainer says she's not pointing to the Oaks in Dream Empress. McPeek said in January that the was pointing to the Oaks at Epsom and that she's not a dirt horse. These guys work for the Form, but do they read the Form?

Dunbar · #31 03-13-2009, 02:47 PM

For comparison, here are current odds at TheGreek.com. (These are not parimutual--ie, your odds don't change after you bet.)

They'll take these odds down before the races tomorrow. I doubt they'll put them up again on Sunday. For these odds, I calculated that the takeout is just 9.7%.

"+4550" means 45.5 to 1

2201 Bears Rocket +4550
2202 Beethoven +3550
2203 Big Drama scratch
2204 Chocolate Candy +4050
2205 Desert Party +1415
2206 Dunkirk +1300
2207 Flying Pegasus +3550
2208 Friesan Fire +1815
2209 General Quarters +3050
2210 Giant Oak +2550
2211 Hello Broadway +2550
2212 I Want Revenge +1200
2213 Imperial Council +2550
2214 Old Fashioned +845
2215 Papa Clem +4050
2216 Patena +2550
2217 Pioneer of the Nile +1325
2218 Quality Road +1815
2219 Silver City +6050
2220 Take the Points +6050
2221 The Pamplemousse +2050
2222 Theregoesjojo +3050
2223 West Side Bernie +4050
2224 Any Other Horse +485

--Dunbar

Scurlogue Champ · #32 03-13-2009, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

They don't get to keep the money. All they get is some bettors who may eventually realize that they have been totally screwed.

--Dunbar

They get to keep some of it, or else they wouldn't offer it. They don't open the doors for the heck of it.

philcski · #33 03-13-2009, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Also of interest...it looks like Big Drama has taken some exacta action. That's weird. Couldn't they block betting on the "scratched" horse?

--Dunbar

Actually, i thought about this for a while last night and whomever did it is really smart. If the rules apply like they could, I.E. you scratch into the post time favorite, you are getting the raceday Derby favorite at a ridiculously high price. I'd check into it to verify that's the case though.

Dunkirk is currently 5-1. LOL

Linny · #34 03-13-2009, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

They get to keep some of it, or else they wouldn't offer it. They don't open the doors for the heck of it.

Like any other bet, they keep the takeout, the rest goes to winning bettors. I understand that the panel consists of 3 members, two of whom are Form employees who don't appear to read their own paper. It is in the best interest of Churchill Downs, if they want to develop fan interest by conducting this wager to get the best possible information before selecting the horses to include. A couple of phone calls to the trainers involved to confirm that the horses are "on track" and "aiming" for the race in question would have been sufficient.

Linny · #35 03-13-2009, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Actually, i thought about this for a while last night and whomever did it is really smart. If the rules apply like they could, I.E. you scratch into the post time favorite, you are getting the raceday Derby favorite at a ridiculously high price. I'd check into it to verify that's the case though.

Dunkirk is currently 5-1. LOL

I imagine that the "favorite" you'd scratch into is the favorite at the close of that wager, not the post time fave in the Derby.

3kings · #36 03-13-2009, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

I imagine that the "favorite" you'd scratch into is the favorite at the close of that wager, not the post time fave in the Derby.

Will you scratch into anything? All the horses listed will not get into the derby. If you pick a horse that does not make it you don't get a refund. Wouldn't a scratched runner just be another horse that does not make the derby? I could be wrong but I doubt there will be scratch substitutions.

Dunbar · #37 03-13-2009, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings

Will you scratch into anything? All the horses listed will not get into the derby. If you pick a horse that does not make it you don't get a refund. Wouldn't a scratched runner just be another horse that does not make the derby? I could be wrong but I doubt there will be scratch substitutions.

But in this case, the horse scratched before the pool was even open for betting. The bet should never have been accepted.

I think Linny is most likely correct--the bettor will probably get the favorite at the time the pool closes. But what happens if the favorite happens to be the other horse in the exacta? Go to next favorite?

--Dunbar

3kings · #38 03-13-2009, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

But in this case, the horse scratched before the pool was even open for betting. The bet should never have been accepted.

I think Linny is most likely correct--the bettor will probably get the favorite at the time the pool closes. But what happens if the favorite happens to be the other horse in the exacta? Go to next favorite?

--Dunbar

I see your point, but my guess is refund and no substitution.

justindew · #39 03-13-2009, 08:13 PM

Here's what happened:

Some simulcast outlet somewhere accepted exacta bets early, before the pools opened. Some of these bets were on Big Drama, and some were in $1 increments, which is not allowed because it is a $2 minimum bet.

CD is trying to determine where the bets came from and get them out of the system.

justindew · #40 03-13-2009, 09:53 PM

Also, it seems the "system" is allowing $1 base bets, which was not the intention. It was supposed to be a $2 minimum.