Pick 4 Carryovers

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

yeah! that's a better idea. A pick 4 pick 4's. in order to win you must have all the pick 4's right at nyra. del park. manmouth. and philly park! it would pay huge and be easier to hit than a pick six pick 6's.

Wait, I thought DaHoss won........

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was a clever way to redboard.....I have to give you credit.

In other words, you are too lazy to scour the country for these potentially lucrative opportunities, and are hoping the kind folk of this board will share their potential spoils with you?

Scuds... your aquaintance is required to scour Argentina, and then post how that friend insert name (like maybe Beyer) won a race by traveling the world. Dilligence and world travel my friend... the stuff of winners.

This is known as the double reverse red-board post.
Then recommend a good soup and movie.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I'm still trying to get a feel for the pick 5, but (so far) I think the pick 4 is a lot better bet. The pick 4 often has 2 favorites, a 2nd or 3rd choice, and a price horse. That doesn't require a lot of money to win it. The pick 5 often gets 2 price horses in it. Feels like trying to get coverage in a pick 6. The pick 4 he said I was redboarding about was one of the easiest pick 4 wins anybody could have. It was that early pick 4 at Balmoral on the 19th. Like 90% of you would of had it. It was a 7/2 followed up by three even money shots. Paid $180 for a buck though. Point of the thread is the pick 4 carrovers are paying about 4x the win parlays.

[jballscalls]

Portland Meadows $1410 Pick 5 carryover for tomorrows card. big fields tomorrow, races 5-9, goodluck!!

i'll post a ticket late tonight on my blog if you need some help!!

http://italkwhileanimalsrun.blogspot.com/

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

Portland Meadows $1410 Pick 5 carryover for tomorrows card. big fields tomorrow, races 5-9, goodluck!!

i'll post a ticket late tonight on my blog if you need some help!!

http://italkwhileanimalsrun.blogspot.com/

They only had $1400 in the P5 pool?

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously the average Pick-4 payout isn't four times the parlay but is probably somewhere around 1.5 times the parlay. This is pure mathematics and completely due to the dispersal in takeout. While the numbers aren't exact, the takeout does get divided over the number of races in any multirace bet, and thus if the Pick-4 takeout is 25% it is roughly 6% in each race....as opposed to say 17% in the win pool.

Assuming these numbers for now, a horse that is exactly 4:1 in a 100K pool, before takeout, has $16.6K bet to win on it ( 1/5 of 100K is 17K takeout ). Suppose the takeout was 6%....that same horse would pay $11.30 to win ( instead of $10 even ). Multiply this out four times ( to keep things relatively simple ). Four $10 horses give you a $1250 parlay on a $2 bet.....four $11.30 horses gives you $2038 ( or 1.63 times as much ).

Now, the real takout is probably closer to 6.75% in the example which is why I reduced it to 1 1/2 times....but you get the drift.

[blackthroatedwind]

Just to add, the middle level payouts are even better, as the combinations involving first and second choices in each race have been shown, over time, to pay under the parlay, and obviously the outlyer payouts with longshots will pay less than the parlay ( quite often there isn't close to enough money in the pool to pay the parlay, so to speak ). Thus, the payouts that incorperate some third choices or higher will pay more...possibly as much as 2 to 2.5 times the parlay over time.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

This brings up another issue. How low do you go(in purse money) before you say it's too low? Fingerlakes is considered a small track, but the purses aren't anywhere near as low as they are at Portland.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

Portland Meadows $1410 Pick 5 carryover for tomorrows card. big fields tomorrow, races 5-9, goodluck!!

i'll post a ticket late tonight on my blog if you need some help!!

http://italkwhileanimalsrun.blogspot.com/

If it doesn't get hit Tuesday, then what's your estimate of the amount of carryover going into the next card? Can it get to a 4k or 5k pool tomorrow, and if it does, what's the size of the pool on that next card? I mean what's typical?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The payoff on the pick 5 carryover(Balmoral) on Saturday Night was about 4x win parlay. I'd prefer the 4x win parlay on the pick 4 carryovers, but(obviously) they aren't gunna be carrying over as often.

[blackthroatedwind]

If the carryover covers the takeout then you rate to get just over 2 times the parlay. Assuming my above example, the horse with 16.6K in a 100K pool at 4:1 goes to almost exactly 5:1 in a no takeout situation, and thus creates a parlay payout of $2592....or just over twice the $1250 straight parlay.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

Golden Gate Meadows or whatever its called in northern cali. just take the six best tracks that run and make it a dime and you will get a big jackpot soon enough.

Oh please, not another 10 cent bet for the gizzers to kill the the payoff.

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

If it doesn't get hit Tuesday, then what's your estimate of the amount of carryover going into the next card? Can it get to a 4k or 5k pool tomorrow, and if it does, what's the size of the pool on that next card? I mean what's typical?

i would guess with it tuesday and not much other action going on today, probably atleast 5 or 6 more goes into it today.

the best situation is when there is a carryover going into sundays races. because so few people play us on sundays as compared to monday and tuesday, that you'll have 7 or 8k carry'd over, and only maybe 2000 worth of bets going in, so if you can get any.....and i mean any seperation from the chalk, you can take down the whole pool. We had one on a sunday go for 9 thousand that was 2/1, 7/2, 9/5, 7/2, 9/5

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

i would guess with it tuesday and not much other action going on today, probably atleast 5 or 6 more goes into it today.

the best situation is when there is a carryover going into sundays races. because so few people play us on sundays as compared to monday and tuesday, that you'll have 7 or 8k carry'd over, and only maybe 2000 worth of bets going in, so if you can get any.....and i mean any seperation from the chalk, you can take down the whole pool. We had one on a sunday go for 9 thousand that was 2/1, 7/2, 9/5, 7/2, 9/5

Wow, wish I could cap animal food better. I ain't much when the purse dips under about $4500. If ya carry today, I'll try.

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Wow, wish I could cap animal food better. I ain't much when the purse dips under about $4500. If ya carry today, I'll try.

Its the same game!! animals running in a circle with a little man on top of them.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Maybe I have a bias that favors the middle class.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

$3,780 pick 5 carryover at Portland on Sunday. I'll try it.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

http://www.balmoralpark.com/ShowResu...esults_ID=1665

11-26 pick 4 at Balmoral (races 1-4 ) paid 10,724 for a buck. The win parlay is only what? About $400? Somebody's having a Happy Thanksgiving. No carryover...Just very lucky...get 10k for picking horses in a $1 win parlay that would pay $400.

[blackthroatedwind]

Bamoral is a harness track.

The payoff was exceptional....but the parlay was over $700.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Bamoral is a harness track.

The payoff was exceptional....but the parlay was over $700.

Yea, not concentrating. Btch has a phone addiction , and called right in the middle of a race. I didn't pick up right away. There ya go(bubble up,baby.) That's all it takes. SILENT NIGHT!! .....Be Better Thursday Night, and come Friday it be like nothing ever happened. Got to call right smack in the middle of stuff. How do they fkn know to do that?


WTF IS BAMORAL?