Tale of Ekati to the Jerome

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Explain something to me; at the broadest level.

If there's a race in which 3 of the top 5 horses, at the qtr and half mile calls, finish in the top 4, and the top 3 at the 6f and 8f calls finish 1-2-4, and only a single horse comes (way) off the pace, to finish 3rd, how is it that THAT horse got the perfect trip?

Do you really want me to 'explain', or are you just trying to get a debate going? To not think that Court Vision got a dream setup is to completely ignore fractions.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm posting your phone number down in esoteric so morty can call you later.

ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo









that was funny......a real f#cking stupid idea.....but funny.

[stonegossard]

Actually Dahoss...giving Morty my number would be harmless. He has been picking up a phone and talking into a dial tone for 20 yrs now. He believes that everyone can hear him when he picks up the receiver and talks.

[KirisClown]

Originally Posted by reese

The only embarrassing item here is your post. Another "computer-armchair trainer". How many horses have YOU trained? Ever won the KY Derby? The Wood? The Preakness?

Surely, TAGG knows his stock and thoroughbreds. Maybe THE OWNER of TOE wanted to race at SAR in the 1 1/4 mile TRAVERS. TOE won a G-1 at 1 1-18 miles

Tagg competes on the toughest circuit in the US. The only one clueless here is YOU.

Is this post a result of eating paint chips?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Do you really want me to 'explain', or are you just trying to get a debate going? To not think that Court Vision got a dream setup is to completely ignore fractions.

I realize that the idea behind numbers is that if your numbers say that a horse got a certain trip, then the horse must've gotten that trip. This is only the case if trips are determined SOLELY by the fractions (or final times). Believe it or not, there are some who don't believe in numbers and believe that the way a race shapes up, ultimately, is more representative. This assumes that there is very little that separates contenders. And, if this is the case, the set of races that are determined by numerical pace is a subset of some larger set.

This isn't quantum physics. The 'truth' isn't hidden from the thing itself. By looking at a race I should be able to tell who got the best and worst of it. And, in this particular case, CV, didn't get the best of it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I realize that the idea behind numbers is that if your numbers say that a horse got a certain trip, then the horse must've gotten that trip. This is only the case if trips are determined SOLELY by the fractions (or final times). Believe it or not, there are some who don't believe in numbers and believe that the way a race shapes up, ultimately, is more representative. This assumes that there is very little that separates contenders. And, if this is the case, the set of races that are determined by numerical pace is a subset of some larger set.

This isn't quantum physics. The 'truth' isn't hidden from the thing itself. By looking at a race I should be able to tell who got the best and worst of it. And, in this particular case, CV, didn't get the best of it.

In a general sense I agree with you on the race dynamics concept and how, theoretically it should apply in this race, but considering Court Vision's overall pps it is fair to say he benefited from a good setup in the Wood.

I think the better argument is probably that the Wood was a lousy race and only War Pass ran a respectible race all things considered ( one being that 1 1/8 is too far for him....the other obviously being the rabbit ).

[ateamstupid]

You certainly don't have to be a quantim physicist to realize that Court Vision couldn't even pass a horse who ran probably one of the fastest opening quarters in a two-turn AQU stake ever.

As a one-run deep closer (plodder), what setup would've been more beneficial to Court Vision?

This "horses who were A-B-C-D early ran Z-Y-X-W" analysis is useful, but only when used in conjuction with early and late fractions and with some idea of how good those A-B-C-D horses are.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You certainly don't have to be a quantim physicist to realize that Court Vision couldn't even pass a horse who ran probably one of the fastest opening quarters in a two-turn AQU stake ever.

As a one-run deep closer (plodder), what setup would've been more beneficial to Court Vision?

This "horses who were A-B-C-D early ran Z-Y-X-W" analysis is useful, but only when used in conjuction with early and late fractions and with some idea of how good those A-B-C-D horses are.

Only very special horses run down front runners that have gotten away without getting some help from horse(s) ahead of them. Your mistake here, is that you assume, as is natural, that the only way a frontrunner has an advantage is by running slow fractions. In fact, running very fast, without being challenged at a key point in the race, and then basically crawling home, is equally, if not more effective. In this sense, then, MOVES/race dynamics are superordinate to pace. Think about it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Only very special horses run down front runners that have gotten away without getting some help from horse(s) ahead of them. Your mistake here, is that you assume, as is natural, that the only way a frontrunner has an advantage is by running slow fractions. In fact, running very fast, without being challenged at a key point in the race, and then basically crawling home, is equally, if not more effective. In this sense, then, MOVES/race dynamics are superordinate to pace. Think about it.

I agree with everything you're saying, and despite your assumption, I don't think that a frontrunner can only get a good trip by running slow fractions.

Your mistake here is forgetting what happened in the race. War Pass was pressed through absurdly fast fractions for four furlongs by Inner Light. Then came a fresh challenge from Tale of Ekati, moving early as usual. All the while Court Vision is slowly sucking up in behind the frontrunner.

Even if War Pass hadn't had Inner Light with him, after War Pass ran :22 (around a turn mind you) and :46 on that glib track, Court Vision had absolutely no excuse not to pass him, let alone Tale of Ekati, who had to run a sub-:23 second quarter.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with everything you're saying, and despite your assumption, I don't think that a frontrunner can only get a good trip by running slow fractions.

Your mistake here is forgetting what happened in the race. War Pass was pressed through absurdly fast fractions for four furlongs by Inner Light. Then came a fresh challenge from Tale of Ekati, moving early as usual. All the while Court Vision is slowly sucking up in behind the frontrunner.

Even if War Pass hadn't had Inner Light with him, after War Pass ran :22 (around a turn mind you) and :46 on that glib track, Court Vision had absolutely no excuse not to pass him, let alone Tale of Ekati, who had to run a sub-:23 second quarter.

Fractions aside, the rabbit was a factor until just before they hit the quarter mark. ToE's "challenge" happened in a 25.43 split. But it wasn't really a challenge and this is key to the race. If ToE is able to put pressure on WP in the turn, then CV wins the race. All ToE is able to do is stagger along (while shutting off the rail for Giant Moon) and luck out when WP collapses late. With ToE not providing the necessary pressure at the key point in the race, WP gets away, and CV does not get the setup you seem to think he did as WP was just too far ahead when he stopped.

Clearly, WP was best in the race. But I don't see how CV ran any worse than the others.

Compare these 2 charts to see the distinction I'm making.

[ateamstupid]

I find that it's not a very good idea to say "fractions aside" when they're that extreme.

My point is that it really shouldn't matter what happened in the third quarter since War Pass ran his last three furlongs in just under 41 seconds. How much ****ing slower does he have to go to make you consider that Court Vision should've been able to pass him, even if CV was 10 1/4 behind WP at the three-eighths?

Fractions aren't everything, but when a horse runs :22.46 around a turn and :46.07 on a glib track, then finishes in damn near :41 for three furlongs, they matter.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I find that it's not a very good idea to say "fractions aside" when they're that extreme.

My point is that it really shouldn't matter what happened in the third quarter since War Pass ran his last three furlongs in just under 41 seconds. How much ****ing slower does he have to go to make you consider that Court Vision should've been able to pass him, even if CV was 10 1/4 behind WP at the three-eighths?

Fractions aren't everything, but when a horse runs :22.46 around a turn and :46.07 on a glib track, then finishes in damn near :41 for three furlongs, they matter.

I've attached the chart for a third type of fast paced race. Here, there's a relatively loose leader, stalked but never really pressed, run down very late by a very good horse, that most thought ran unimpressively.

So, we have 3 cases:

1) fast fractions, pressure for a qtr, loose from then on, with the 2nd horse passing the staggering speed late

2) fast fractions, pressure throughout, off the pace horse winning

3) described above

If CV were compared to Curlin, he wouldn't be very good.

[ateamstupid]

Nice to see Visionaire's true colors when he doesn't have meltdown fractions to run at.

It's scary to think what Tale of Ekati would've done had he rightfully been kept around one turn.

[Betsy]

You and I Forever ran surprisingly well - I was down on him after the PA Derby

[GPK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Nice to see Visionaire's true colors when he doesn't have meltdown fractions to run at.

It's scary to think what Tale of Ekati would've done had he rightfully been kept around one turn.

You been saying it for a while Joe. Hope you got some on the win end.

[outofthebox]

I thought the sky was the limit for him after his Futurity win last year. I guess his limit is the one turn. On to the Cigar Mile?

[Bobby Fischer]

best thread ever