Saratoga Baby Race Analysis

I don't anymore.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't agree with you about Cognito's trip and think that is specifically the kind of trip, especially given how well the horse ran under the circumstances, that could really improve a horse for its next start.

That being said, I can understand taking the Werner horse, and won't be surprised if a live firster wins.....but I still think Cognito is OK and the horse to beat.

You were right - he might be ok.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Opening day maiden for juveniles always an exciting event. With only two with experience cappers must use workouts to evaluate potential talent and levels of fitness.

FOREST LORD certainly looks like a runner. After a quarter mile in Lexington chestnut son of Forest Camp moved up to a half mile three weeks later. Ronny got him and immediately put him in company out of the gate, then five panels before shipping north. Werner a terrific debut conditioner worked this one in company with undefeated stablemate and graded winner Run Away and Hide and "Lord" could not go with that one but came back with solid co-bullet Saturday, working much faster than useful sophomore stablemate The Darp.

From a breeding standpoint "Lord" is a stand out with two year old champions littering his immediate pedigree. Deputy Minister, Smart Angle, Seattle Slew and Rockhill Native are all in the first two generations with the latter three on the dams side. JR gets the call for Mr. Preston and not much to beat at least on paper.

Cognito had a solid debut and should go favored, although the money often shows, and scores in this type of heat. Nevertheless the rail no bargain especially this heavily cambered oval when the float is used yet this well bred gray from top dirt barn in the country may complete the perfecta. BBB

*crinkle*

trash can

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

*crinkle*

trash can

he had me at heavily cambered.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

he had me at heavily cambered.

I laughed too.

"From a breeding standpoint "Lord" is a stand out with two year old champions littering his immediate pedigree. Deputy Minister, Smart Angle, Seattle Slew and Rockhill Native are all in the first two generations with the latter three on the dams side. JR gets the call for Mr. Preston and not much to beat at least on paper."


I'd venture to guess 50% of the babies at Saratoga this year have some combination of the above in their first two generations... what a great handicapping angle.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by philcski

I laughed too.

"From a breeding standpoint "Lord" is a stand out with two year old champions littering his immediate pedigree. Deputy Minister, Smart Angle, Seattle Slew and Rockhill Native are all in the first two generations with the latter three on the dams side. JR gets the call for Mr. Preston and not much to beat at least on paper."


I'd venture to guess 50% of the babies at Saratoga this year have some combination of the above in their first two generations... what a great handicapping angle.

OOOOOOOO

Summing up Saratoga in one word would be difficult as racing has been conducted since the civil war, but tradition comes to mind' Something that is customary, inherited, ongoing and passed from one generation to another.

One tradition for Saratoga and most opening days at other meets is the straight maiden colt race. Often split, this race offers the very best juveniles with their regal bloodlines and/or lofty sales prices.

How the owners acquired these youngsters has changed radically. Gone are the days when Leslie Coombs put real estate heiress Dolly Green on the back of an elephant, hours before she bought the sale topper with Coombs partners bidding up the price. Lately, the last ten years or so, wealthy investors have been demanding quality in their purchases often buying two year olds in training to reduce their costs. Xrays, nuclear scans, blood work and other vetting are now routine and owners want immediate returns on their investments.

Nick Zito is a good case in point. It seems he has won with more first time juvenile starters the last three years than he has in his previous thirty-five years as a trainer.

Phenomenal juvenile trainer Steve Assmussen ran three babies. A 700K that won, a 425K that won and a well bred homer that got caught on the trecherous rail, tied up and finished last at 13-10!

With all that printed, opening day at big venues brings out colts with bright futures; or at least their owners hope so. We have always enjoyed these type heats. Alas, our selection Forest Lord came onto the track a good fifty pounds over weight, showed brief speed and ran out of condition before the quarter pole. Its much tougher to get colts fit than fillies and this son of Forest Camp had a difficult to read work tab. Perhaps he did not like the surface as the days winners were on the crown or drifting noticeably.

Thanks for the comments. Aside to Philcski; 35 non NYbred 2yo's were entered the first two days and only two had a two year old champ in their immediate pedigree. BBB

[philcski]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Summing up Saratoga in one word would be difficult as racing has been conducted since the civil war, but tradition comes to mind' Something that is customary, inherited, ongoing and passed from one generation to another.

One tradition for Saratoga and most opening days at other meets is the straight maiden colt race. Often split, this race offers the very best juveniles with their regal bloodlines and/or lofty sales prices.

How the owners acquired these youngsters has changed radically. Gone are the days when Leslie Coombs put real estate heiress Dolly Green on the back of an elephant, hours before she bought the sale topper with Coombs partners bidding up the price. Lately, the last ten years or so, wealthy investors have been demanding quality in their purchases often buying two year olds in training to reduce their costs. Xrays, nuclear scans, blood work and other vetting are now routine and owners want immediate returns on their investments.

Nick Zito is a good case in point. It seems he has won with more first time juvenile starters the last three years than he has in his previous thirty-five years as a trainer.

Phenomenal juvenile trainer Steve Assmussen ran three babies. A 700K that won, a 425K that won and a well bred homer that got caught on the trecherous rail, tied up and finished last at 13-10!

With all that printed, opening day at big venues brings out colts with bright futures; or at least their owners hope so. We have always enjoyed these type heats. Alas, our selection Forest Lord came onto the track a good fifty pounds over weight, showed brief speed and ran out of condition before the quarter pole. Its much tougher to get colts fit than fillies and this son of Forest Camp had a difficult to read work tab. Perhaps he did not like the surface as the days winners were on the crown or drifting noticeably.

Thanks for the comments. Aside to Philcski; 35 non NYbred 2yo's were entered the first two days and only two had a two year old champ in their immediate pedigree. BBB

I'm not banging on your selection, I thought he looked live at a price too. He wasn't good enough first out to beat a horse that had debuted strongly, simple as that. I just don't buy the pedigree handicapping all the time. ALL of these horses are extremely well bred, which is why they're running at Saratoga instead of River Downs. Your case was made on good works and a capable trainer, which I agreed with.

In the case of Cognito, he's a half to Cool Coal Man who's a pretty damned good 3yo, that's just as strong an angle, if not stronger, as the number of champions in a pedigree, no?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm not banging on your selection, I thought he looked live at a price too. He wasn't good enough first out to beat a horse that had debuted strongly, simple as that. I just don't buy the pedigree handicapping all the time. ALL of these horses are extremely well bred, which is why they're running at Saratoga instead of River Downs. Your case was made on good works and a capable trainer, which I agreed with.

In the case of Cognito, he's a half to Cool Coal Man who's a pretty damned good 3yo, that's just as strong an angle, if not stronger, as the number of champions in a pedigree, no?

Not in most crops.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not in most crops.

Touche.