Expert opinions - Hatta Fort odds? - Page 2

NoLuvForPletch · #21 06-03-2008, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't he already run here?

Yes, he ran in the Peter Pan.

I was thinking if he ran huge on the turf that these guys from Japan may be a little smarter than we are giving them credit for. The works for Casino Drive are a funny read right now. But if Spark Candle runs like those horses in Australia did I'm thinking it might not be all smoke and mirrors.

Strategic Mission · #22 06-03-2008, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Yes, he ran in the Peter Pan.

I was thinking if he ran huge on the turf that these guys from Japan may be a little smarter than we are giving them credit for. The works for Casino Drive are a funny read right now. But if Spark Candle runs like those horses in Australia did I'm thinking it might not be all smoke and mirrors.

It isn't smoke and mirrors regardless of how the horse runs on Friday. They are training for a 12f race. The Japanese know what they are doing. You don't run 1-2 in the Melbourne cup if you don't know what you are doing. Might not matter though if Big Brown is that good, but Casino Drive will run a big race, basically because he has the 12f pedigree and a great foundation.

dalakhani · #23 06-03-2008, 12:55 PM

Was Gomez booted off of Hatta Fort or was the switch to gio ponte by choice? Anyone know?

the_fat_man · #24 06-03-2008, 01:02 PM

I'm thinking that Clement didn't get enough with GP getting blocked the length of the stretch in the BC, and Gomez blowing a ton of rides on the BEL TURF by INSISTING on riding the rail (including at least one for Clement, off the top of my head).

This is a nice jockey change.

dalakhani · #25 06-03-2008, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm thinking that Clement didn't get enough with GP getting blocked the length of the stretch in the BC, and Gomez blowing a ton of rides on the BEL TURF by INSISTING on riding the rail (including at least one for Clement, off the top of my head).

This is a nice jockey change.

I dont think it was a bad change either way. I just know that Gomez rides first call for these guys in the states (or did). I always find it interesting on how these rider changes come about. Not to say that if a rider makes a change it means that much but it CAN be a piece to the puzzle. I would think that Godolphin is a more important client than Clement but if he got booted he had no choice.

blackthroatedwind · #26 06-03-2008, 01:28 PM

For what it's worth, the listed odds for Friday's races have been taken down from the race cards for now. The next line you see should be more accurate.

Antitrust32 · #27 06-03-2008, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strategic Mission

It isn't smoke and mirrors regardless of how the horse runs on Friday. They are training for a 12f race. The Japanese know what they are doing. You don't run 1-2 in the Melbourne cup if you don't know what you are doing. Might not matter though if Big Brown is that good, but Casino Drive will run a big race, basically because he has the 12f pedigree and a great foundation.

you mean from his two career starts?

brockguy · #28 06-03-2008, 01:52 PM

Hatta Fort has got top class form here, 5-1 would be a gift if you got it..

blackthroatedwind · #29 06-03-2008, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

Hatta Fort has got top class form here, 5-1 would be a gift if you got it..

He's going to be under 2:1.

Scav · #30 06-03-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's going to be under 2:1.

Should be under even money as far as I am concerned

parsixfarms · #31 06-03-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm thinking that Clement didn't get enough with GP getting blocked the length of the stretch in the BC, and Gomez blowing a ton of rides on the BEL TURF by INSISTING on riding the rail (including at least one for Clement, off the top of my head).

So saving ground on the turf is a bad thing? Seems Bailey made a pretty good living doing exactly the same thing. Sometimes, the hole doesn't open, and the jock will "look bad," but in the long run, the rider is giving his horse a better chance to win. It sure beats being 3-4 wide and losing all that ground.

blackthroatedwind · #32 06-03-2008, 02:05 PM

Right, but glueing yourself to the fence is very dangerous. I prefer Cornelio Velasquez's style of being in the two path. It gives you more options while still saving ground.

the_fat_man · #33 06-03-2008, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

So saving ground on the turf is a bad thing? Seems Bailey made a pretty good living doing exactly the same thing. Sometimes, the hole doesn't open, and the jock will "look bad," but in the long run, the rider is giving his horse a better chance to win. It sure beats being 3-4 wide and losing all that ground.

It's RELATIVE. It's definitely the way to go on tight turn, hard surface courses where NOTHING comes back. On wide sweeping courses, like BEL, where getting a clear run is the most important thing a jock can do, it's NOT the way to go.

Gomez is riding perfectly for HOL. Problem is, he's at BEL.

brockguy · #34 06-03-2008, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's going to be under 2:1.

grand so
note to self, dont treat scav's comments as gospel

Scav · #35 06-03-2008, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

grand so
note to self, dont treat scav's comments as gospel

I never said 5/1, that was PG1985 that did, I said 3/5.....

hockey2315 · #36 06-03-2008, 02:15 PM

He won't be 3/5

Scav · #37 06-03-2008, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

He won't be 3/5

I hope NOT!!

jcs11204 · #38 06-03-2008, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I never said 5/1, that was PG1985 that did, I said 3/5.....

i dont see him getting bet that hard... just me... and in my opinion i want him to get bet, because i dont like him in here.

parsixfarms · #39 06-03-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right, but glueing yourself to the fence is very dangerous. I prefer Cornelio Velasquez's style of being in the two path. It gives you more options while still saving ground.

I'm talking more about successful riders making the "in/out" move on the grass (and if the rail/hedge opens up, so much the better), so in that sense I agree that "gluing yourself" to the fence is "very dangerous." However, in the often paceless turf events that we see in NY, there's nothing worse than being 3-4 wide while up against a slow pace.

Scav · #40 06-03-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i dont see him getting bet that hard... just me... and in my opinion i want him to get bet, because i dont like him in here.

OMG, you ARE A GODSEND.