Saturday Stakes BSF's

Originally Posted by Kasept

I laughed..






(But Travis wouldn't be a contestant... He'd be the voice-over guy!)

Oh...


Well we'd just feed him to Morty.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's official? A new low...

Every speed figure maker in the game is wrong..

Beyer, Brown, Ragozin... decades apiece, each evaluating the speed horses run as their lives' work. All incorrect...

But you're correct. You know better. Truly amazing. And sad.

stay tuned for scenes from the next episode of General Hospital...Chapel Hill style

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

Ky- they're slow. Trust me on this one. These are the most pathetic group of times I can ever remember in the preps.


The more I see, the more I like Big Brown.

Big Brown is not slow.

The times may be slow, but the way the races set up make the final times slow.

You have horses like Visionaire going up to NY, not switching leads in the stretch, and running a higher Beyer than a horse like Pyro that beat Visionaire in his previous start. Sierra Sunset-99. Georgie Boy-92, Pyro-95, Colonel John-86, El Gato Malo-85. These horses can all run Sierra Sunset into the ground.

Colonel John-last furlong...11.8 seconds
El Gato Malo-last furlong...11.2 seconds.

I don't know how much faster a horse is supposed to run than that. Again, I don't think these horses are slow. I won't change these statements. Well, not until they prove me otherwise.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Big Brown is not slow.

The times may be slow, but the way the races set up make the final times slow.

You have horses like Visionaire going up to NY, not switching leads in the stretch, and running a higher Beyer than a horse like Pyro that beat Visionaire in his previous start. Sierra Sunset-99. Georgie Boy-92, Pyro-95, Colonel John-86, El Gato Malo-85. These horses can all run Sierra Sunset into the ground.

Colonel John-last furlong...11.8 seconds
El Gato Malo-last furlong...11.2 seconds.

I don't know how much faster a horse is supposed to run than that. Again, I don't think these horses are slow. I won't change these statements. Well, not until they prove me otherwise.

These colts are slow relative to past years PERIOD. Do you think any of these colts save WP would be able to compete with Hard Spun, Curlin, or Street Sense?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Big Brown is not slow.

The times may be slow, but the way the races set up make the final times slow.

You have horses like Visionaire going up to NY, not switching leads in the stretch, and running a higher Beyer than a horse like Pyro that beat Visionaire in his previous start. Sierra Sunset-99. Georgie Boy-92, Pyro-95, Colonel John-86, El Gato Malo-85. These horses can all run Sierra Sunset into the ground.

Colonel John-last furlong...11.8 seconds
El Gato Malo-last furlong...11.2 seconds.

I don't know how much faster a horse is supposed to run than that. Again, I don't think these horses are slow. I won't change these statements. Well, not until they prove me otherwise.

we will see how he runs vs horses that are good.. he is a good horse but..

dirt in the face and some pressure should make a diffrence in his spectacular looks.......i think he gets exposed ...

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by freddymo

These colts are slow relative to past years PERIOD. Do you think any of these colts save WP would be able to compete with Hard Spun, Curlin, or Street Sense?

Big Brown is better than WP IMO. I said that way before the race this weekend too.

So may be several of these other horses.

Yes, I think some of these colts could compete with them. Well, maybe not Curlin when he is at his best. The depth of this group of horses is yet to be determined. I think it is very premature to write them off as slow because the figures and final times are saying so based on how some of these races are set up. The horses out in Cali have to run the races that way. They can't go fast early out there. If they do, they collapse in the stretch.

Do you think that Visionaire can beat Pyro when Visionaire doesn't even switch leads in the stretch?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Big Brown is not slow.

The times may be slow, but the way the races set up make the final times slow.

You have horses like Visionaire going up to NY, not switching leads in the stretch, and running a higher Beyer than a horse like Pyro that beat Visionaire in his previous start. Sierra Sunset-99. Georgie Boy-92, Pyro-95, Colonel John-86, El Gato Malo-85. These horses can all run Sierra Sunset into the ground.

Colonel John-last furlong...11.8 seconds
El Gato Malo-last furlong...11.2 seconds.

I don't know how much faster a horse is supposed to run than that. Again, I don't think these horses are slow. I won't change these statements. Well, not until they prove me otherwise.

Nope... but he hasn't even run in a stake yet. We have to cross our fingers that he doesn't run a clunker, or we won't even get a chance to see him in the Derby.

the problem with your analysis on Col John & El Gato Malo is the last furlong comparison doesn't work with synthetics. If a horse did that on turf (which is what synthetic racing really is), we'd say ok, nice horse, maybe a G3 type, but a cut below the top level. On dirt, those numbers would be something special... and last I checked they still run the Derby on dirt (THANK GOD FOR THAT!!!) Until the Cali's run & prove themselves on real dirt, like Sierra Sunset did, I will reserve judgement.

Originally Posted by freddymo

These colts are slow relative to past years PERIOD. Do you think any of these colts save WP would be able to compete with Hard Spun, Curlin, or Street Sense?

No chance. NONE. And you're not even including Rags to Riches, who would smoke them all too.

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

we will see how he runs vs horses that are good.. he is a good horse but..

dirt in the face and some pressure should make a diffrence in his spectacular looks.......i think he gets exposed ...

totally agree, which is why I can't judge him on the square just yet (even though he's easily on the top of my list). I don't think he gets exposed in his next start though... as we've stated, the competition aint much.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Big Brown is not slow.

The times may be slow, but the way the races set up make the final times slow.

You have horses like Visionaire going up to NY, not switching leads in the stretch, and running a higher Beyer than a horse like Pyro that beat Visionaire in his previous start. Sierra Sunset-99. Georgie Boy-92, Pyro-95, Colonel John-86, El Gato Malo-85. These horses can all run Sierra Sunset into the ground.

Colonel John-last furlong...11.8 seconds
El Gato Malo-last furlong...11.2 seconds.

I don't know how much faster a horse is supposed to run than that. Again, I don't think these horses are slow. I won't change these statements. Well, not until they prove me otherwise.

Fast horses, by my definition at least, by running the whole race fast, not just selected parts. I haven't seen any horse do that yet.

In the races this year, the horses either go too slow early to record a decent final time, or they go fast and collapse. Think about this one...War Emblem won the Derby at 20-1. He'd be about even money against this crop as it stands right now.

Thunder Gulch would beat this bunch open lengths.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

This crop will prove to not be as bad as everyone is making them out to be IMO. Some of these horses can run.

I'm not going to say that they are "slow" at this point.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Fast horses, by my definition at least, by running the whole race fast, not just selected parts. I haven't seen any horse do that yet.

In the races this year, the horses either go too slow early to record a decent final time, or they go fast and collapse. Think about this one...War Emblem won the Derby at 20-1. He'd be about even money against this crop as it stands right now.

I don't think a horse should change their running style just because the pace horses aren't running fast. Synthetic is different than turf. Maybe not polytrack, but synthetic at Hollywood and SA is very different from the turf.

If it was turf, Medici Code could run over it.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

This crop will prove to not be as bad as everyone is making them out to be IMO. Some of these horses can run.

I'm not going to say that they are "slow" at this point.

And your opinion will be wrong.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Thunder Gulch would beat this bunch open lengths.

Giacomo would be this bunch by open lengths (seriously).

Thunder Gulch was actually an outstanding horse, one of my favorites. He'd be even money against this crew in the Derby.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

And your opinion will be wrong.

I doubt it, but we will see.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I don't think a horse should change their running style just because the pace horses aren't running fast. Synthetic is different than turf. Maybe not polytrack, but synthetic at Hollywood and SA is very different from the turf.

If it was turf, Medici Code could run over it.

It WAS different, but the "new" cushion track with the goo stuff they put in at SA is just like turf. Just look at the fractions- 1:13 in the San Felipe, which is probably 3 seconds slower than what a traditional dirt track would be.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

And your opinion will be wrong.

So, you think Visionaire can beat Pyro then?

[cmorioles]

It is different from turf. But, the courses at both HOL and SA are much closer to turf than dirt. Anyone betting serious money without taking that into account is helping put my son through college.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

...I'm not going to say that they are "slow" at this point.

Jessica, wouldn't you agree that actual finish times are much less significant than speed figures...???

If so, does it not follow that the relatively low speed figures suggest a relatively slower crop of 3yo colts....at least at this point in the development of the crop

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Jessica, wouldn't you agree that actual finish times are much less significant than speed figures...??

I take both speed figures and final times with a grain of salt, but yes...usually. It depends on the situation. When horses run the mile in 138 and change, and come home in 150 and change, and only get a BSF of 86, 85 because pace of the race...well. I don't take final times really into consideration without taking the whole race into perspective.

El Gato Malo went from running a 99 to an 85, and ran just as good of a race in his last as in his first this year. I don't understand the logic.

Pyro ran a hell of a race in the Risen Star, and only got a 95 beating Visionaire soundly. Visionaire doesn't even switch leads, beats up on much less talented horses that he should have beat by a lot more, and gets a 98 next out. Don't understand the logic behind the numbers.

Don't get me wrong. Sometimes beyers are very useful, but I am careful with them. They are not useful to me in evaluating some of these 3yo races this year though.

Have you ever thought about selling your picks online? I've got an idea where you're live on cam and after each race if your horse loses you take off an item of clothing.

I think this could be a fantastic business opportunity. PM me for more details.