The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not that you said it, in fact you intentionally avoided it, but War Pass was loose on the lead because he outran his speedy opposition with exceptionally fast fractions. His half in the BC was a full second faster than the lightning quick Indian Blessing. It's hardly surprising that Pyro was able to gain on him in the last quarter of those races....in fact it would have been embarrassing if he couldn't. None of his closes were particularly exceptional. In fact one could argue that he was the only one running after War Pass had done the dirty work of intimidating all the speed horses.

Besides for War Pass - I said before the race I thought the field had the look of a fairly paceless race. Globalization (who failed a couple times in maiden sprints) and Salute the Sarge (who simply is a consistant stalker-to-mid-pack type) were 2nd and 3rd.

The fast fractions were more a product of a keen and aggressive War Pass, and the horses behind him had to be used some to keep him from getting too loose in the Monmouth slop.

You know it's far more common in slop than dirt for superior speed horses to carve solid fractions and still outfinish everyone else. If you take Pyro out of the race, War Pass turns his 2.5 length lead after a half mile into a 16.75 length margin of victory over everyone else.

Obviously I know War Pass was clearly the better 2yo - but my point was based on projections Pyro is the most likely Derby winner.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And thanks for pointing out the different ways that Assmussen and Zito are bringing these horses along. Considering Assmussen's mantel full of KY Derby trophies, along with Zito's total lack of success in the race, it's a wonder Nick isn't trying to emulate Steve's style.

You seem to have missed the point.

Basically, I think the Champagne was Zito's big goal with War Pass. The four straight fast bullet works in Sep leading into the race suggested he wanted to leave nothing on the table.

In Pyro's case, he's done everything without being asked to do much of anything in his slow works.

Somehow you managed to turn that into 'well who has won more Derby's?'

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

Hard Spun had a 1 length lead after a half....though that was mostly due to Stormello being spun about 5 or 6 wide on the first turn while Kent D. had a full nelson on him.

War Pass will come into the race much more feared than Hard Spun did - and in last years race...Kent very likely doesn't put Stormello to hard rating.

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

He had a BIG stamina pedigree - and never seemed relaxed at all unless he made the lead.

[Linny]

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

[/quote]

What? I'd have to check but at Derby time I though HS had one loss, at Oaklawn. If you are talking Classic, by then he'd lost the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Haskell.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I said when he made the lead at the first call.

He didn't make the lead at the first call in several races - The Southwest, The Preakness, The Belmont, The Haskel, The Lane's End, his sprint win in the King's Bishop

[Bobby Fischer]

1. war pass isn't even a consideration for winning the derby. Come on guys. I put him on my vulture list the second he staggered in the lane that time.
A sprinter breed, who runs like a sprinter... wins some 8.5 furlong races and you think he gets 10 furlongs in a 15 horse+ field? WTF? Is anyone who considers themselves beyond a "fan" actually touting warpass? War Pass will be lucky if he wins his 9 furlong prep(s).


2. Beyers have nothing to do with the kentucky derby. Speed figures in general are going to mislead you in comparison with visually evaluating a horse and a race. The only good a speed figure does is when they give a bad horse a big number , or a good horse a low number.

3. Pyro is one of many who at this time have a chance to compete for the roses. It is very early. His risen star was good in that it allowed him to carry form forward. He showed that he can gallop for 7 or 8 furlongs and then sprint home. He showed that he is in shape and has a kick, and the fairgrounds stretch distance isn't going to make him flatten out. Churchill is nearly as long as fair grounds. It was the type of form that wins the derby lately, which tends to have a horse carry the speed or emerge to the top of the stretch and then another (winner) run by in the lane. Pyro is a little bit small but he is very well proportioned. The final time for the risen star was OBVIOUSLY sub maximal for pyro.- Pyro could have obviously ran a faster final time had the jockey asked him sooner, but the purse money and record goes to the horse who beats zfortune, and not to the horse who runs faster than some girl ran a totally unrelated race that happened to be the same day and distance. It is foolish to say "slow race" blah blah blah without looking at the performance of the specific animal as an individual, outside the context of his opponents. You can not draw conclusions with a track variant and a final time from a silverbulletday and a risen star. To even suggest that Indian Blessing ran a better race is misleading and incorrect. Final time and beyers mean sooooooooo much less than than style and form and the manner in which the race was run.

All you can say now is that pyro looks like he could compete in the derby if he isn't a victim of a bad trip.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Heels1989

Haven't seen this previously posted. Mr. Beyer on War Pass.

Impressed with Pyro today, but not on his bandwagon quite yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...020803619.html

I just read this. Beyer made an unacceptable error!

He said the 113 Beyer of War Pass was the highest earned by a 2yo since Easy Goer.

In fact, everyone knows the year after Easy Goer's 2yo season Grand Canyon ran the fastest 2yo Beyer figure ever recorded with his giant 1:33 flat win in the Hollywood Futurity. Breaking Snow Chief's stakes record by over one full second. His final race before death. At least everyone who's heard me say it about 600 or so times in my posting career.

Also - while it is fair to compare War Pass with Slew from a style standpoint - Beyer was actually the one who led the "Seattle Slew is overrated" charge leading up to the Derby and even after his Derby score.

In his second book, he spent a few pages making his case for why he thought Cormorant was the right horse to bet in that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

a bunch of nonsense

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

Outside of taking an incredible amount of time and space to state the obvious in your posts ---gee, I'm always enlightened by you-- you, also, apparently, have your HEAD deep UP YOUR ASS, in lumping me with the idiot Fischer.

Interestingly, after you got your ASS KICKED royally at SAR on that site of yours--what was it, ZERO for the 1st 2 1/2 weeks? --- with some of the most ridiculous plays I've ever witnessed, I mean, really, Drugs, ZERO winners for HALF the MEET, you're still around trying to educate others. You willl never live that one down.

What is it really, DOOFUS, the fact that I was on Curlin before you?

[King Glorious]

The case for why Pyro is NOT the most likely Derby winner right now:

1. He can't beat War Pass. He's 0-3 under three different distances, surfaces, and tracks.

Numerous e-lawsuits will be filed because of this thread.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I actually thought The Fat Man took being compared to the Fish gracefully.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

Wow, that is an A+ post if I have ever seen one.

Regardless of my feelings, the above is a 98 mph fastball with movement...

knee high

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

what was it, ZERO for the 1st 2 1/2 weeks? --- with some of the most ridiculous plays I've ever witnessed, I mean, really, Drugs, ZERO winners for HALF the MEET, you're still around trying to educate others. You willl never live that one down.

I'll bite.

That one is very easy to live down. Trust me, I've done far worse.

I was zero for ten with two scratches - which means 1st winner didn't come until racing day #13 (and second day #14)

About half of the ten were 15/1 or more...and one or two of the days instead of a horse it was a Pick 4 play.

I know you are dying to mention the first winner was a 5/2 shot - but hey, it won by 6 and it was time to try and break the duck.

I was fluke-ishly high percentage with longshot winners the previous meet ('06 BEL Fall) I did on there...just as I was in the newspaper the one PID meet. Things even out.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

All in all, however, your usual fine work. If you weren't so damn handsome I probably wouldn't even have read it.

The whole post looked like another poor effort to discredit Street Sense to me.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

1. war pass isn't even a consideration for winning the derby. Come on guys. I put him on my vulture list the second he staggered in the lane that time.
A sprinter breed, who runs like a sprinter... wins some 8.5 furlong races and you think he gets 10 furlongs in a 15 horse+ field? WTF? Is anyone who considers themselves beyond a "fan" actually touting warpass? War Pass will be lucky if he wins his 9 furlong prep(s).


2. Beyers have nothing to do with the kentucky derby. Speed figures in general are going to mislead you in comparison with visually evaluating a horse and a race. The only good a speed figure does is when they give a bad horse a big number , or a good horse a low number.

3. Pyro is one of many who at this time have a chance to compete for the roses. It is very early. His risen star was good in that it allowed him to carry form forward. He showed that he can gallop for 7 or 8 furlongs and then sprint home. He showed that he is in shape and has a kick, and the fairgrounds stretch distance isn't going to make him flatten out. Churchill is nearly as long as fair grounds. It was the type of form that wins the derby lately, which tends to have a horse carry the speed or emerge to the top of the stretch and then another (winner) run by in the lane. Pyro is a little bit small but he is very well proportioned. The final time for the risen star was OBVIOUSLY sub maximal for pyro.- Pyro could have obviously ran a faster final time had the jockey asked him sooner, but the purse money and record goes to the horse who beats zfortune, and not to the horse who runs faster than some girl ran a totally unrelated race that happened to be the same day and distance. It is foolish to say "slow race" blah blah blah without looking at the performance of the specific animal as an individual, outside the context of his opponents. You can not draw conclusions with a track variant and a final time from a silverbulletday and a risen star. To even suggest that Indian Blessing ran a better race is misleading and incorrect. Final time and beyers mean sooooooooo much less than than style and form and the manner in which the race was run.

All you can say now is that pyro looks like he could compete in the derby if he isn't a victim of a bad trip.

not necessarily. plenty of times i have seen people make a statement that a horse who won with ease could have run faster if asked. and quite often that turns out to be incorrect.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

Wow, that is an A+ post if I have ever seen one.

Regardless of my feelings, the above is a 98 mph fastball with movement...

knee high

I was pretty amused, too!

--Dunbar

[cmorioles]

I also happen to think the BC Juvenile was overrated by Beyer. It was a tricky day, but I think he is about 10 points too high.

[pmacdaddy]

Have to say I think The Fat Man definitley knows his sh*t.

I would also love to get that 12-1 on War .Pass if anyone is that sure he is hopeless at a mile and a quarter.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The whole post looked like another poor effort to discredit Street Sense to me.

I knew that as well......but I didn't want to make him cry.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Danzig

not necessarily. plenty of times i have seen people make a statement that a horse who won with ease could have run faster if asked. and quite often that turns out to be incorrect.

Because most people do not have that perception ability. The common mistake is when a speed horse wins in hand and the thought is he could have gone faster... However when a horse runs an exceptionally fast finish fraction, in most cases they could in fact have gone faster.

Pyro could go out in a week and best that time in the morning, if someone were to offer his connections enough money.