2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well sure....but in this group I think molasses would be a good bet at about 12/1.

Nice.

[Bobby Fischer]

Fairbanks won't do a very good job of bothering Daaher. Kiss is worth a look at replays, he breaks well enough on paper ...

It is all moot, as Daaher has been pressured before (jerome comes to mind) and didn't notice the other horse. It will be about the stamina limits. Luzzi has been less prone to major errors and wants this mount badly. Is Daaher a 2trn 9furlong horse?? I don't see why not, 10f is maybe a little questionable... Spring at Last is the only comparable talent. SaL isn't a pure 9 furlong horse either but is capable and mature. Wouldn't surprise. Is clearly 2nd best.
Arrow will get a nice trip. Wood be Willing has every right to step forward. 2nd time dirt, 2nd time Jerkens, 2nd time Lezcano 2nd time loser?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem. But, the horse who pressures him will have a bigger problem.

Fairbanks has very limited ability. It may be a coin flip whether or not he runs last, but he's not in a coin flip with Daaher no matter how you cut it.

I'm really not trying to be a wiseguy and I have no idea what you find appealing about Fairbanks. I honestly don't think he is mildly interesting at 20-1.

The only horse I see that could benefit from Daaher and Fairbanks dueling is A.P. Arrow and he's not exactly the greatest horse off a short layoff.

I'm overlooking the bad form Fairbanks had in his last two races and looking at what he did in the spring and early summer.

I just think it's between Daaher and Fairbanks. It's worth a small wager to keep me interested in an otherwise shittastic race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem.

If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.

[Bobby Fischer]

Swale has a few interesting ones.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Swale has a few interesting ones.

6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L




I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by miraja2

6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L

I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

What do you think of Eaton's Gift, miraja?

[Bobby Fischer]

That Kiss the Kidd actually ran a fairly quick 6furlongs in the CanTurf. huh.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

lol

I really like St. Joe. Not convinced that he is a quitter yet. Eatons Gift has a decent chance to run well again. Wincat could be anything. And then you have Cornelio Velazquez on Silver Edition with probably my fourth favorite in the race coming off an (overacheiving?) 2nd in the Hutcheson. You could toss the ill advised mile efforts from Silver Edition and he almost looks like a sprinter prospect. I'll be rooting for St. Joe but any of these could win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.

I mostly agree and slightly disagree.

If you really think there will be a meltdown then that's how you play the race and you pitch Daaher. I'm not saying I feel this is the case, but if he gets run into the ground, the closers are talented enough to swallow him up.

However, I think he's faster early than Fairbanks, and cheap speed like Kiss the Kid has no realistic hope of competing early or late ( and should be scratched ). Thus, I think while the pace will be reasonably quick, it won't be pressured, and his superiority will likely do this field in.

But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

That Kiss the Kidd actually ran a fairly quick 6furlongs in the CanTurf. huh.

The very idea that Eddie Castro is back on this horse after absolutely costing him victory last time is beyond ridiculous.

I just don't think that turf speed will translate to the dirt....but your point is valid and if they want to butcher and sacrifice him again then he could prove Daaher's undoing.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The very idea that Eddie Castro is back on this horse after absolutely costing him victory last time is beyond ridiculous.

I just don't think that turf speed will translate to the dirt....but your point is valid and if they want to butcher and sacrifice him again then he could prove Daaher's undoing.

I think you are right about Kiss being cheap on dirt. And also that he probably won't be as quick on the dirt, and even if he is - this is NOT the pace scenario you would want for him. I don't like Fairbanks at all. I do like the "prep" Spring at Last is coming off of. Has O'Neill had any success shipping to Florida lately? I'm drawing a blank, he probably shipped someone on Millions day?

EDIT looked like he sent down Swiss Current and Cobalt Blue. Both ran about where I expected (to form?) but neither was competitive. My gut says O'neill shipper shouldn't run a recent best, but I don't have a lot of logic behind that.

[blackthroatedwind]

The idea that Spring at Last won on a surface last time he doesn't even particularly have an affinity for is a good one. My problem with him is I have never thought he was much horse. But, maybe I am being unfairly prejudiced.

The O'Neill shipping factor has occurred to me as well.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The O'Neill shipping factor has occurred to me as well.

Can anyone name the last time O'Neill won with a shipper beyond a mile and a sixteenth? All his horses going longer seem to spit the bit around that mile and sixteenth mark outside of California but just grow stronger at that point in California. Pretty amazing phenomenom.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Can anyone name the last time O'Neill won with a shipper beyond a mile and a sixteenth? All his horses going longer seem to spit the bit around that mile and sixteenth mark outside of California but just grow stronger at that point in California. Pretty amazing phenomenom.

Four times in the last five years....

The last time was this summer when Shamdinan in the Secretariat ( 1 1/4 turf ). Prior to that Tedo won the Wildcat at Turf Paradise at 1 3/8 on the grass on April 30th 2006. Thor's Echo won the WinStar Derby in April of 2005 at Sunland Park and Supah Blitz won the Carl Rose at Calder in November 2004. Both those races were 1 1/8th on the dirt.

He is 15 for 101 at a mile or over outside of California in the last five years. One was at a mile ( Sky Jack in the Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs in August of 2003 ) and the rest were at 1 1/16th. His ROI, for what it's worth, is 1.45 for those starts.

At 1 1/8th and over his record is 34 starts with 4 wins 2 seconds and 1 third.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Four times in the last five years....

The last time was this summer when Shamdinan in the Secretariat ( 1 1/4 turf ). Prior to that Tedo won the Wildcat at Turf Paradise at 1 3/8 on the grass on April 30th 2006. Thor's Echo won the WinStar Derby in April of 2005 at Sunland Park and Supah Blitz won the Carl Rose at Calder in November 2004. Both those races were 1 1/8th on the dirt.

He is 15 for 101 at a mile or over outside of California in the last five years. One was at a mile ( Sky Jack in the Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs in August of 2003 ) and the rest were at 1 1/16th. His ROI, for what it's worth, is 1.45 for those starts.

I wasn't even thinking turf races since the dynamics of those races can be so different that they may not be as tiring. So April '05 at Sunland and Nov '04 are the last two on the dirt. Pretty staggering numbers. Thanks for the info.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I wasn't even thinking turf races since the dynamics of those races can be so different that they may not be as tiring. So April '05 at Sunland and Nov '04 are the last two on the dirt. Pretty staggering numbers. Thanks for the info.

I'm not so sure that they're that bad. He was probably about 2 for 24 in dirt races ( I don't feel like looking it up again ). So he was about 8% shipping. Isn't he only about 13% at home? He was also second with Notional in last year's Florida Derby I think.

We should also look up how he does shipping overall.....and how he does sprints versus routes in California if we want to get the whole picture.

Remind me tomorrow.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not so sure that they're that bad. He was probably about 2 for 24 in dirt races ( I don't feel like looking it up again ). So he was about 8% shipping. Isn't he only about 13% at home? He was also second with Notional in last year's Florida Derby I think.

We should also look up how he does shipping overall.....and how he does sprints versus routes in California if we want to get the whole picture.

Remind me tomorrow.

Yeah, but he only ships if he has a horse with good odds. ROI doesn't really tell you that much since it doesn't tell you about the obscene waste of money out of state on horses like Lava Man, Cobalt Blue, Andujar, and Great Hunter who have all gone off at low odds at 9f+ and by my count are yet to hit the board. If he had other winners in that time it would be one thing, but he doesn't. Notional did run second in the FL Derby but I happen to think he was talented enough that he would have won the Santa Anita Derby if he stayed home and would have crushed Scat Daddy if they squared off in California.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.

He looks like a pretty strong single to me, but I guess if I was going to go two-deep I would probably throw in AP Arrow. If there actually is a total meltdown up front - which I also doubt - he seems to me to be the most probable winner. His last race was actually pretty good, he ran fairly well over this track last year, he doesn't have a kiss-of-death outside post, and he seems to run just fine (for him) off of a layoff.

[blackthroatedwind]

Doug O'Neill outside of California on the dirt the past 5 years....

All Shippers 27 / 142 2.42 ROI

Under One Mile 14 / 54 3.94 ROI

Mile and 1 1/16 11 / 57 2.12 ROI

1 1/8 and over 2 / 31 0.15 ROI