AQU: Fri/Sat Stakes

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right now I think it's fair to say his accomplishments compare at least favorably to those of Discreet Cat. Last year at this time I recall a lot of people suggesting that Discreet Cat might be an all-time great. Now, that was obviously jumping the gun, but finding ways to somehow diminish Daaher's recent record is even more out of line.

It is amazing the difference in attention given to the two horses. Discreet Cat finished his 3yo season with wins in an allowance, the Jerome, and the Cigar Mile. His Beyers were 112/115/116. Daaher won the same three races. I don't have his Beyers in front of me but I believe they are something like 107/110/114. Not a lot separating the two there and realistically based on the pattern you could conclude that Discreet Cat had plateaued at that point while Daaher is still on the upswing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Discreet Cat was a story for a year and a half....and apparently only you noticed Daaher a few months ago. With Discreet Cat it was a case of people wanting to be right ( not that he wasn't impressive ) while in this case since most missed the boat they are less than dismissive. Why do you think nobody was even discussing this race?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Cigar Mile was basically a classic circumstantial race - you had only two horses in the race who could so much as stand up - and in the match-race like situation the winner owned every circumstantial edge possible over the 2nd place finisher.

Daaher really proved nothing in this race - beyond the fact that he's held the form he showed in his two prior big figure wins earned under more legit circumstances.

After his big figure Saratoga win - which came over a track labeled good and one race removed from a Fort Erie loss....it was hard not to be somewhat skeptic about him becoming a top horse.

Like Cannon said, losing at Fort Erie can kind of be something of a buzzkill - at least these days anyway. After all, the great Northern Dancer suffered the worst defeat in his career at the hands of Ramblin Rod in the '63 Vandal Stakes at Fort Erie...Dance Smartley fell victim at 2/5 in the '90 Ontario Debutante...but who really gives a crap about obscure Fort Erie trivia anyway?

Daaher addressed all the questions anyone could possibly have had about him with a 110 Beyer fast track win - without the aid of any kind of favorable trip in the Jerome.

Midnight Lute certainly lost nothing in defeat - another tremendous race he ran under impossible circumstances. Any idea of him somehow having distance limitations exposed in defeat are a little bit comical. He's only ran at a mile or beyond TWICE in his life - all of three weeks apart - and his two tough trip defeats in both Strub and San Fernando were at least as good, if not better, than a pair of surrounding seven furlong races in The Malibu one start prior and The Commonwealth one start post.

A lot of people made a big deal about the HUGE sheet figure numbers Midnight Lute earned in his last two - but his sheet figure in the Cigar will easily beat Daaher's. Daaher did win by a margin of 2.5 lengths - but on the sheet figure scale Midnight Lute carried 2.88 lengths more in weight - and was 2 paths wider on the turn. Which means Midnight Lute's sheet fig for the Cigar will actually comeback exactly 2.38 lengths faster than the winner.

While the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin may say Midnight Lute ran 2.38 lengths faster - they really miss the boat because they DON'T take pace, trip, and trainer preperation into consideration.

And I believe Dahher had giant edges in all three categories.

* Pace: There was only one other race on the card run at the same one-mile distance. In that race, Mike Luzzi was able to get fractions of 23.27 and 46.57 enroute to a blowout wire-to-wire win on a 12/1 shot 2yo maiden. Dahher went just 0.17 seconds faster to the quarter mile and 0.25 seconds faster to the half mile. Dahher posted almost identical early fractions to those turned in by a wire-to-wire 2yo 12/1 shot MSW winner...and that maiden had never made a lead at any call in his three lifetime races prior.

* Trip: Not only did Dahher get away with absurdly soft fractions - he did so while totally unpressured and rating kindly on the lead in a soft field. Meanwhile, Midnight Lute was understandably pulling hard in the early stages, while rating behind that soft pace....while on a two furlong stretch-out, and going sprint-to-route for a trainer who keeps their feet to the flames in the AM..and shows a huge 55% loss on the dollar trainer stat with spr-to-route stretchouts.

*Trainer Prep: Much like with Discreet Cat last year - the Cigar Mile was the goal since summer for the winner - who raced in a Saratoga allowance and the Jerome in his two prior starts. Kiaran McLaughlin is as skilled as any trainer I've ever seen in my lifetime. He got the hapless Closing Argument to almost win the KY Derby as the 20th choice in the betting, he took a star from Urugay (think South American version of Louisiana Downs at best) and turned him into a Horse of the Year. He took a hanging Euro and won the Filly and Mare Turf - he is to Fernando Jara and Alan Garcia what Randy Moss was to an OLD Randall Cunningham and Jeff George. While Dahher stayed in New York prepping for the race under McLaughlin...

Midnight Lute was doing a lot of shipping and had the Breeders Cup Sprint as his main goal - I doubt the three cross country ships in less than 3 months were a big deal. What was a big deal was the fact that Baffert REALLY PUT IT ON this horse in the workouts leading up to the BC. Less than a week before the BC Sprint, Midnight Lute worked offically 57.60 for five furlongs - though Baffert pubicly said he caught the work in 56 and change. It was reported in the DRF that Baffert was screaming "Go! Go! Go!" to the excersize rider on the walkie talkie during that work. That work was Clearly the result of the fear that long striding Midnight Lute might find the six furlongs of the BC Sprint way too sharp for him. Thus, put all the speed you can in him six days before the race. He was trained perfectly for a fast paced 6f race considering the distance concerns - the way he was rank in the early stages of the Cigar...I think he has an excuse for wanting to do more.

All in all, Daaher basically ran the same excellent race for the 3rd time in a row. His fig was 4 points higher than last out - but his circumstances were atleast that much better.

Midnight Lute was a classic case of a vulnerable 1/2 shot with superior form. He did nothing wrong....and I would back him as the more likely winner of the two if they met at a mile in a fairly run race.

Dahher is lightly raced - has great developmental breeding - a great developmental trainer - and has every right to improve. Midnight Lute has had past breathing and soundness issues for a trainer who's horses sometimes burn out. Room for improvement is the one and only area where Dahher has ML - and he has him good in that regard.

[Sightseek]

Great post Druggie-poo.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Like Cannon said, losing at Fort Erie can kind of be something of a buzzkill - at least these days anyway. After all, the great Northern Dancer suffered the worst defeat in his career at the hands of Ramblin Rod in the '63 Vandal Stakes at Fort Erie...Dance Smartley fell victim at 2/5 in the '90 Ontario Debutante...but who really gives a crap about obscure Fort Erie trivia anyway?

I like how everyone neglects to mention that the race was the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. It's not like he lost a cheap claimer or a maiden race at Fort Erie or ever even ran there for less than half a million.

Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, and Azeri must have been pretty crappy horses too for losing at Lone Star Park.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Midnight Lute was a classic case of a vulnerable 1/2 shot with superior form. He did nothing wrong....and I would back him as the more likely winner of the two if they met at a mile in a fairly run race.

So, basically you're saying that if the race were run 'fairly',that is, if some other horse hooked Daaher in fast fractions, and ML were allowed to close off the duel, ML would win and thereby prove to be the superior horse. But why would that scenario be 'fair' and the one where Daaher controls the pace (though he actually did quite a bit of running to do so ---take a look at the start and the run to the 1st quarter) and buries ML NOT 'fair'?

[blackthroatedwind]

Because he has a hidden aganda......he's upset that someone has drawn the obvious comparisons between Daaher and his beloved Discreet Cat.

[freddymo]

Simply put DrugS ruleS

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like how everyone neglects to mention that the race was the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. It's not like he lost a cheap claimer.

He ran an 80 Beyer and was a soundly beaten 3rd behind the likes of Alezzandro and Jiggs Coz....

I've been to more than a few runnings of the PoW Stakes at Fort Erie in my day....while it is most often the best race FE has to offer in a year - it's hardly a race of real high quality.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But why would that scenario be 'fair' and the one where Daaher controls the pace (though he actually did quite a bit of running to do so ---take a look at the start and the run to the 1st quarter) and buries ML NOT 'fair'?

Dude - he ran almost identical fractions to a 2yo maiden who payed $26 to win and pasted the field in wire-to-wire fashion - while the 6/1 shot who pressed him stayed on for 3rd.

Dahher was not kept even slightly honest in that race. He had a 2.5 length lead after a half mile through a crawl - while ML was rank.

By fairly run race - I basically mean an average Grade 1 pace in a field of atleast seven or eight horses - where there is at least one other horse with a hint of early speed.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He ran an 80 Beyer and was a soundly beaten 3rd behind the likes of Alezzandro and Jiggs Coz....

I've been to more than a few runnings of the PoW Stakes at Fort Erie in my day....while it is most often the best race FE has to offer in a year - it's hardly a race of real high quality.

By no means do I think the Prince of Wales was a quality race. Just not specifying which Fort Erie race he lost gives the impression he was some cheap horse that came out of nowhere rather than a horse that shipped up from NY for a $500,000 race. And obviously the blinkers have made a huge difference.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Because he has a hidden aganda......he's upset that someone has drawn the obvious comparisons between Daaher and his beloved Discreet Cat.

You are starting to think like a 9/11 Truther....

People can compare Daaher with DC all they want. I'm not here to argue that. It's Tuesday...I've done a lot of tedious pen and notebook work lately...and it's either I post a little or do something horrible like shave for the first time in three days or go outside.

As for your comparison - I'll bet you anything Daaher has the better 4yo season. Even if he goes to Dubai and they try their worst....

As it played out, I think DC was probably the more precious of the two - and his Saratoga allowance, Jerome, and Cigar Mile sweep were all done with better individual efforts.

[blackthroatedwind]

Why not just shave one of the two hairs.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Just not specifying which Fort Erie race he lost gives the impression he was some cheap horse that came out of nowhere rather than a horse that shipped up from NY for a $500,000 race. And obviously the blinkers have made a huge difference.

No doubt they have.

I'm with Cannon on this one though - saying that losing at Fort Erie is a buzz kill sounds slightly better than losing the POW is a buzzkill.

Style points my friend.

[Sightseek]

Is pedigree query correct that Daaher only sold for $375K as a yearling despite being a full to Spun Sugar?

[blackthroatedwind]

And what exactly had the marvelous Spun Sugar accomplished at that point in her illustrious career?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Is pedigree query correct that Daaher only sold for $375K as a yearling despite being a full to Spun Sugar?

Yes, he was the 3rd most expensive of 30 yearlings sired by AA to sell at auction that year.

And - when he sold in Sept of '05...Spun Sugar had just one stakes win on her resume. A grade 2 win in the Black Eyed Susan.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And what exactly had the marvelous Spun Sugar accomplished at that point in her illustrious career?

At that point - she hadn't put a nose on Balletto at Saratoga - and proved herself to be Anti-DrugS.

Much like you hadn't - until you just made a crack on moi for ...of all things ... lacking hair.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And what exactly had the marvelous Spun Sugar accomplished at that point in her illustrious career?

Actually a lot more than I thought....albeit slowly.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Where did anyone say that Daaher was a " great horse?" Find the post.

t.

Obviously you overlooked the possibility of hyperbole being employed. Loss of tone of voice in typed communication is a problem.

I thought this was a forum for discussion of points of view. If my opinion of Beyer figures differs from yours, that makes me wrong and ignorant - hardly a position condusive to discussion.

The name Pedigree Ann was given to me on the 'Road to the Roses' contest board many years ago and I have kept it ever since, so that people I know from various boards can recognize me. If you want to question my pedigree geek credentials, I suggest you ask Avalyn Hunter, Alan Porter, and Anne Peters for their opinions of my understanding; the latter two actually hired me to write about pedigrees for a publication they successively edited. You can point out to them their error.