HOL: Fri/Sat/Sun Stakes

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Jim- Do you agree with me that he was the best horse in that race or am I just blinded by the fact that I had a big bet on Bold Hawk?

I agree that BH was the best horse in the race and he buries this field on just about any other turf course than the one it was run on. I also think that Samyn is just about the worst jockey out there. What exactly did Samyn do wrong, in your opinion?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Jim- Do you agree with me that he was the best horse in that race or am I just blinded by the fact that I had a big bet on Bold Hawk?

i just watched the replay again to be sure, yes I think he was the best.
he had to backpedal for a long time before getting room to run, and once he had room he had the most finish of anybody.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I think the distance may prove tough to get for Daytona. I will still have a nice WP and a saver Show bet and keyed in all 3 spots of the triple. I've been monitiring him for some time now and was super salty that he burnt me last out by winning at atmoshpheric odds. It won't ever happen again.
Unusual Suspect is a story for another day, unbelievable....

Great Call.

Can't believe I missed Nobiz's bet-against race.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I agree that BH was the best horse in the race and he buries this field on just about any other turf course than the one it was run on. I also think that Samyn is just about the worst jockey out there. What exactly did Samyn do wrong, in your opinion?

Like Jim said- he was sitting about sixth or seventh on the rail for most of the race then at the turn got passed by a few horses and was boxed in. . . By the time he found room he had a lot of ground to make up. . . So Samyn tries to swing wide- oops, no room. . . then he tries to come up the rail- nope, and he finally angles Bold Hawk away from the rail for clear running room with virtually no time left to make up the lost ground. . . This horse need to make an outside move to really get going and Samyn never gave him a chance to do that until it was much too late. . .

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Like Jim said- he was sitting about sixth or seventh on the rail for most of the race then at the turn got passed by a few horses and was boxed in. . . By the time he found room he had a lot of ground to make up. . . So Samyn tries to swing wide- oops, no room. . . then he tries to come up the rail- nope, and he finally angles Bold Hawk away from the rail for clear running room with virtually no time left to make up the lost ground. . . This horse need to make an outside move to really get going and Samyn never gave him a chance to do that until it was much too late. . .

I just took a long look at the replay, trying to reconcile what I saw with my attached chart of the race. WHile, outside is the best place to be coming home on the turf, I think that Samyn did the best he could in the stretch under the circumstances. There was no way he was getting outside from where he entered the stretch ---there was a wall of horses there. Where he possibly blew the race was on the turn, when the 11 blew by him and he was stuck behind a horse that was backing up on the rail and had to then follow the 11, who got the garden trip up the rail entering and to the wire. This is typical Samyn chickenshit riding: the inside on the turn on the turf is even more alien to him than it is to Johnny V. Then again, a good deal of this is racing luck.

This is what sucks about the game (especially on the turf): you bet with conviction against the even money shot, getting more than fair odds, and can't even get a clear run in the race.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I just took a long look at the replay, trying to reconcile what I saw with my attached chart of the race. WHile, outside is the best place to be coming home on the turf, I think that Samyn did the best he could in the stretch under the circumstances. There was no way he was getting outside from where he entered the stretch ---there was a wall of horses there. Where he possibly blew the race was on the turn, when the 10 blew by him and he was stuck behind a horse that was backing up on the rail and had to then follow the 10, who got the garden trip up the rail entering and to the wire. This is typical Samyn chickenshit riding: the inside on the turn on the turf is even more alien to him than it is to Johnny V. Then again, a good deal of this is racing luck.

This is what sucks about the game (especially on the turf): you bet with conviction against the even money shot, getting more than fair odds, and can't even get a clear run in the race.

i think this sums it up pretty well. sometimes its about making sure you don't run into bad luck like he did when he got shuffled back on the turn.

i'm impressed with that horse though. he looks to me like he has real good stamina.

[copying]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Like Jim said- he was sitting about sixth or seventh on the rail for most of the race then at the turn got passed by a few horses and was boxed in. . . By the time he found room he had a lot of ground to make up. . . So Samyn tries to swing wide- oops, no room. . . then he tries to come up the rail- nope, and he finally angles Bold Hawk away from the rail for clear running room with virtually no time left to make up the lost ground. . . This horse need to make an outside move to really get going and Samyn never gave him a chance to do that until it was much too late. . .

Better watch the replay again. Ground saving trip, never lost momentum when the 1 horse (Warning Zone) was backing up, cut the corner home ala Street Sense, finished well - just wasn't good enough. From the 1/4 pole to the finish, following the same path, he made up 1 length on Medici Code - not enough to catch him - let alone the winner.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by copying

Better watch the replay again. Ground saving trip, never lost momentum when the 1 horse (Warning Zone) was backing up, cut the corner home ala Street Sense, finished well - just wasn't good enough. From the 1/4 pole to the finish, following the same path, he made up 1 length on Medici Code - not enough to catch him - let alone the winner.

Watch the head-on. . .

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by copying

Better watch the replay again. Ground saving trip, never lost momentum when the 1 horse (Warning Zone) was backing up, cut the corner home ala Street Sense, finished well - just wasn't good enough. From the 1/4 pole to the finish, following the same path, he made up 1 length on Medici Code - not enough to catch him - let alone the winner.

Take a close look at the chart I've attached for the race. While I agree that visually he doesn't appear to gain on the 2nd horse once he gets clear very late, he, in fact, gains 1 1/4 lengths from the stretch call to the wire. He also, more importantly, loses 2 lengths worth of position on the turn, when the 10 goes from about 1 length behind him to over 2 lengths ahead (this is between the 6F and 1M split) because his jock is more aggressive than Samyn. Moreover, unlike the 11, who had a clear run from the turn to the wire, and is the one that cuts the corner entering the stretch, BH has at least a second's worth of waiting time in the early stretch. By the time he gets clear, the race is over. NOBODY would gain on the top 2 at that point. He ran a 22.72 last quarter and would probably have run faster, if he had a clear run early stretch. Too bad HOL doesn't have a stretch time so that we can see whether he was slowing down or accelerating the last 1/8th.

Of course, differing opinions/interpretations is what makes this game so interesting.

[Bobby Fischer]

It seems that in California turf racing, when one of the best horses has an easy lead and has won wire-to-wire before = he can be very tough to beat.
I don't know if the turf is a little more firm out there , or if it's the track configuration or something else like training style and medication.

I don't know that any jockey could have won the race with BH, but debatable for second. Hell, it is debatable for the win as well, I just wouldn't argue "for".
At least the horse was running at the end and can continue to carry form forward. It looked like the top three kind of synched-up strides in the last 4 strides, and then BH kind of got a half stride ahead where his lead was out front and the others were back , which is an encouraging finishing detail as well.

I am still not impressed with BH as a really special one. He seems very good and very consistent. I see quality but not brilliance. And I wouldn't call that a Grade1 Turf race. In California if you think the dynamics are a little different, maybe that was close to a "California" Grade1. Bold Hawk did stand out a lot as more of a true turf distance horse than the others. Would love to see this guy continue his form into the 11 and 12 furlong distances.

[declansharbor]

The best horse in that race led them throughout and held on for the win. Plain and simple.

[ArlJim78]

just a thought;
One thing about Bold Hawk is he is very large, and I was thinking today that this may be a detriment, especially for turf racing. Sometimes these really big horses with long strides seem to need everything to go their way, and because of their long stride don't have the quick acceleration you need for the stretch. In his last two races he gets into a drive late and makes up ground but its not with that quick burst that you often see from the best turfers.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

just a thought;
One thing about Bold Hawk is he is very large, and I was thinking today that this may be a detriment, especially for turf racing. Sometimes these really big horses with long strides seem to need everything to go their way, and because of their long stride don't have the quick acceleration you need for the stretch. In his last two races he gets into a drive late and makes up ground but its not with that quick burst that you often see from the best turfers.

I think that may be a function of his trips in his last two. . . He's got a turn of foot- watch his maiden breaker. . .

[copying]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

The best horse in that race led them throughout and held on for the win. Plain and simple.

Pretty much sums it up -- and I didn't have the winner. I played Medici on top of Daytona - figuring Daytona would get caught.

[Bobby Fischer]

I don't think I would pick Daytona outside of California.

Once Precious Kitten won, it was a sign of how the track was playing.

[Alan07]

About your Unusual Suspect story...