If Nashoba wins BC, can she be HOY??

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is self-serving. It's of interest to you because it has to be right now. That's fine.

You know what I mean and I know what you mean.. And I agree that the handicapping portion ("horses") of the overall equation in race media coverage indeed should deservedly outweight the human interest ("connections") portion.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Getaway

What makes you think that Nashoba's Key doesn't have serious ability? Granted she's only won 7 races, but she certainly doesn't want to lose. The BC will be an excellent test for her, you can't deny 7 in a row...and if anybody is paying attention, that's 7 races in one year! I think she might be the most highly raced Breeder's Cup entrant in the last 5+ years! In my opinion, she has absolutely no chance for HOY, but I wouldn't write her off for a BC win just yet, and with a win she could certainly be a top contender for champion older female and female turf.

I think Miss Shop has that sewn up for this year with 24 starts in 2006/2007.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You know what I mean and I know what you mean.. And I agree that the handicapping portion ("horses") of the overall equation in race media coverage indeed should deservedly outweight the human interest ("connections") portion.

I know you know .

[MisterB]

I don't think the Eruo's will like Monmouth, unless we get a soft going. Right now, it's a brick.

[Sightseek]

I think she definitely would deserve to be a Nominee, even moreso than Rags to Riches who has been mentioned as being deservant.

The voting for the 3 year old Eclipse could be very interesting with Curlin having defeated Street Sense and an older horse in Lawyer Ron (who unless the unlikely happens and Brass Hat wins the Classic has Older Male pretty much locked up), Street Sense with a solid season and scintillating Derby victory and Hard Spun who has a good of a chance as any of these in the Classic.

Does Rags to Riches loose the 3 Year Old Filly Eclipse?

If Lear's Princess or Lady Joanne win the Distaff, my vote if I were given one, would lean to either of them.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I think she definitely would deserve to be a Nominee, even moreso than Rags to Riches who has been mentioned as being deservant.

The voting for the 3 year old Eclipse could be very interesting with Curlin having defeated Street Sense and an older horse in Lawyer Ron (who unless the unlikely happens and Brass Hat wins the Classic has Older Male pretty much locked up), Street Sense with a solid season and scintillating Derby victory and Hard Spun who has a good of a chance as any of these in the Classic.

Does Rags to Riches loose the 3 Year Old Filly Eclipse?

If Lear's Princess or Lady Joanne win the Distaff, my vote if I were given one, would lean to either of them.

i have a hard time believing rags will lose top 3 yo filly. many will think she only lost to lear's princess due to the injury that put an end to her year, and she's the only filly to take on the colts and win--and in the belmont to boot--while beating curlin, who now can lay claim to taking on and beating older horses, something the other 3 yo's can't say as yet.

edit~i forgot tiago, poor thing...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i have a hard time believing rags will lose top 3 yo filly. many will think she only lost to lear's princess due to the injury that put an end to her year, and she's the only filly to take on the colts and win--and in the belmont to boot--while beating curlin, who now can lay claim to taking on and beating older horses, something the other 3 yo's can't say as yet.

edit~i forgot tiago, poor thing...

I forgot Tiago too and he certainly makes an interesting dark horse in the bid for the Classic and 3 year old honors although he is spotting the others many lengths at this point in his career.

Since the imaginary vote is entirely subjective, my reasoning for voting against Rags would be for the following reasons:
1. While she beat Curlin in the Belmont...really, was it as big of an accomplishment as it would have been had she defeated them in the Derby or Travers? I'm not going to go over the numerous posts of why she isn't even in the same breath as some of the greatest fillies of all time, but I do agree.
2. Probably the biggest reason of all, I'm tired of seeing horses awarded awards for half a season accomplishments.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, Rags to Riches also won the KY Oaks, and was winning Grade 1s during a the first half of the year, while Lear's Princess and Lady Joanne were barely running, so in a sense none of them had more than a half a year. However, I understand what you're saying. But, Rags to Riches did run, and only physical issues prevented her from completing the year.

Tiago got drowned by Curlin and Street Sense in their meetings. He shouldn't even be considered a candidate for any year end honors.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, Rags to Riches also won the KY Oaks, and was winning Grade 1s during a the first half of the year, while Lear's Princess and Lady Joanne were barely running, so in a sense none of them had more than a half a year. However, I understand what you're saying. But, Rags to Riches did run, and only physical issues prevented her from completing the year.

Tiago got drowned by Curlin and Street Sense in their meetings. He shouldn't even be considered a candidate for any year end honors.

Do you not see the possibility of Tiago doing well in the BCC? Does Magnificience belong on the ballot at all?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Do you not see the possibility of Tiago doing well in the BCC? Does Magnificience belong on the ballot at all?

I actually like Tiago as a horse but right now it's hard to see him leapfrogging so many seemingly better horses.

Magnificence is a huge talent but she's accomplished next to nothing. She's far less deserving than Octave.

[jpops757]

Even if Tiago wins the Classic, this will only make HOY a jumbled affair. If SS, Curlin or LR win the classic they are in for HOY. Anyother winner makes it wide open.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, Rags to Riches also won the KY Oaks, and was winning Grade 1s during a the first half of the year, while Lear's Princess and Lady Joanne were barely running, so in a sense none of them had more than a half a year. However, I understand what you're saying. But, Rags to Riches did run, and only physical issues prevented her from completing the year.

Tiago got drowned by Curlin and Street Sense in their meetings. He shouldn't even be considered a candidate for any year end honors.

oh, i don't think tiago would get consideration, i just mentioned him because i forgot he had also beaten older horses in his last race, rather than just curlin doing so.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

oh, i don't think tiago would get consideration, i just mentioned him because i forgot he had also beaten older horses in his last race, rather than just curlin doing so.

I was responding to Sightseek.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I was responding to Sightseek.

gotcha

i don't see him getting any where close to any consideration, unless he won the bcc--and i don't see that happening.

but then, i didn't see funny cide winning the derby either...or colonial colony winning the stephen foster.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i have a hard time believing rags will lose top 3 yo filly. many will think she only lost to lear's princess due to the injury that put an end to her year, and she's the only filly to take on the colts and win--and in the belmont to boot--while beating curlin, who now can lay claim to taking on and beating older horses, something the other 3 yo's can't say as yet.

edit~i forgot tiago, poor thing...

I believe that Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun both beat older horses in the past couple of weeks. But then, I'm not sure. I don't have a show so I have no credibility.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I believe that Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun both beat older horses in the past couple of weeks. But then, I'm not sure. I don't have a show so I have no credibility.

yeah, they did, didn't they. guess it's been so long since the top three year olds were still around in the fall, that i didn't realize...certainly a welcome change!

[10 pnt move up]

I have a few carla gaines human interest stories.....I should have called in.

[King Glorious]

I guess it's just me but I'm not sold on the group of 3yo's we have this year as being so good. I must say that I am surprised to see so many of them still racing turning in top performances in the fall after the way they battled in the spring and summer. After the TB Derby, I would have bet that either Street Sense or Any Given Saturday would not be around now. The Preakness was a battle for SS and Curlin and I thought for sure that the Belmont would knock out either Curlin or Rags. Well, ok that happened. But the point is that I've become so used to seeing so many of the leading 3yo's each year knocked out before we get to the BC that this is certainly a refreshing change. With racing being the sort of copycat game that it is, I hope that this year is not going to be an exception to the recent pattern of horses leaving early but will be the start of a new cycle of having them stick around longer. Even though in the case of SS and Hard Spun (maybe Curlin and AGS too), longer might just be through the end of the year. But after Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Giacomo, Jazil, Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, Lion Heart, Bellamy Road, Empire Maker, Point Given, etc.....even the end of the year is an improvement.

I was reading in today's DRF where Asmussen said the weekend results "validated the form the 3yo's have had all year. This is a very special group of horses." I also read where they pointed out that Nafzger had said at the beginning of the year that this group was above the norm and this weekend's results confirmed that. What am I missing? I would guess that the consensus top five from the group are Curlin, SS, Hard Spun, AGS and Tiago right? No arguments here. How good are they though?

SS-ran that brilliant 108 Beyer in the Juvenile last year. This year, he ran a 110 and a 111 in the Derby and Preakness. In his last three, he's gone 105, 108, 107. Now some will say that the Dandy and this past race were preps and he wasn't full out. I get that. But what about the Travers? And he was put to a full test by Grasshopper in the Travers...who came back to lose in the Super Derby. How much has SS really progressed from last year and the spring of this year?

Hard Spun-ran a 107 figure in the Derby and has come back in his last three with 106, 107, 109. How much has he improved over the year? He was no match for AGS in the Haskell, was all out to beat First Defence (who came back to get bombed by better) and then benefitted from a perfect situation to beat SS in his last. I don't think there are too many out there that believe that in a truly run race with a sensible pace and some pressure that HS could beat the other top 3yo's at a distance beyond 8f.

AGS-he's an intriguing one. His Dwyer and Haskell wins were very nice and showed marked improvement over what he was doing in the spring. He appeared to be improving the way you like to see a 3yo do over the year.......until the Brooklyn. It wasn't just that he regressed back to a 103 figure but how he did it. He was really put to the test to beat a very horrible field of horses. Perhaps he was nowhere close to being set for his best and that race can be tossed. I am not so sure though.

Tiago-has gone from a 100 in the Belmont to a 103 in the Swaps to the 106 in the Goodwood so he's moving in the right direction but let's not be fooled here. That was a pretty pathetic group in the Goodwood and just like AGS in the Brooklyn and Hard Spun in the KY Cup Classic, it doesn't mean much to say he beat older when the older are that bad. Let's also be honest and say that when a horse is set to go into the BC Classic and his career high figure is a 106, there aren't many years when that horse would be considered one of the top half dozen choices. To me, it's a sign of this year's balanced (but below great) level of competition that he's even being considered a contender at all.

Curlin-In my opinion (and admittedly, I'm biased because he's been my Classic selection since the spring), he's the only one that's shown he has the potential to be a really top one. The JCGC was the top effort by a 3yo this year, not only because it earned the top figure of 114 but also because he beat Lawyer Ron, the two-time top routing figure horse of 2007. He didn't face an overmatched field (AGS) and he didn't have things his own way (Hard Spun) and he still got it done. His figure is not that much higher than the 111 he earned in the Preakness but with Curlin, he's the only one that I feel like there is more left in the tank.

They are consistent. They are balanced. But are they really that good?

you love those big bold numbers don't you?

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Curlin-In my opinion (and admittedly, I'm biased because he's been my Classic selection since the spring), he's the only one that's shown he has the potential to be a really top one. The JCGC was the top effort by a 3yo this year, not only because it earned the top figure of 114 but also because he beat Lawyer Ron, the two-time top routing figure horse of 2007. He didn't face an overmatched field (AGS) and he didn't have things his own way (Hard Spun) and he still got it done. His figure is not that much higher than the 111 he earned in the Preakness but with Curlin, he's the only one that I feel like there is more left in the tank.

They are consistent. They are balanced. But are they really that good?

Any worries that Curlin was dull at Monmouth and may not really like the surface?