Travers Stakes (gr. I)

[10 pnt move up]

I like Street Sense, he looks solid.

[letswastemoney]

Street Sense over Sightseeing straight exacta. Let's say it pays $6. Hey a $40 investment would get $240. That's what I'm planning to play.

[ArlJim78]

Grasshopper looked good last time, i think he has a shot.

I like Street Sense here but I really think Looseleaf will be the surprise.

[Bobby Fischer]

Anyone see a morning line for the Kings Bishop ?

[ninetoone]

past performances out yet?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

past performances out yet?

Travers
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_85139.pdf

Bishop
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...mans_85069.pdf

[ninetoone]

thanks!

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

CP West to turn in a hell of an effort here to nip SS 2 steps before the wire.
At least thats how I have it.

How is C P West going to nip SS at the wire? C P West should be on the lead the whole time and I highly doubt he'll be coming back at the end if SS passes him...

If anything, it will be SS nipping C P West at the wire.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

How is C P West going to nip SS at the wire? C P West should be on the lead the whole time and I highly doubt he'll be coming back at the end if SS passes him...

If anything, it will be SS nipping C P West at the wire.

Its not like it hasn't been done before though.
Curlin came back and nipped Street Sense at the wire after having been passed by him.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Its not like it hasn't been done before though.
Curlin came back and nipped Street Sense at the wire after having been passed by him.

I don't remember Curlin being the pace the whole time during the Preakness. I believe C P West will be up front most if not all of the way, and I think it'll be a bit tougher to come back after 10 furlongs. Do you think otherwise?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I don't remember Curlin being the pace the whole time during the Preakness. I believe C P West will be up front most if not all of the way, and I think it'll be a bit tougher to come back after 10 furlongs. Do you think otherwise?

no, but regardless of the pace i was pointing out that someone had came back to nip him which should not have happened if you ask me.

i really expect CP to be the pace setter and the whole complexion of the race will depend on what kind of pace he is allowed to set and how much stamina he has. he showed big improvement last time out.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

no, but regardless of the pace i was pointing out that someone had came back to nip him which should not have happened if you ask me.

i really expect CP to be the pace setter and the whole complexion of the race will depend on what kind of pace he is allowed to set and how much stamina he has. he showed big improvement last time out.

Agreed... and so did Sightseeing. I doubt I'll play this race... if anything, I'll probably put some win money on Grasshopper because I think he's a good horse (not sure how good yet, though.)

[declansharbor]

Chocolate, Vanilla...Right Doc?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Agreed... and so did Sightseeing. I doubt I'll play this race... if anything, I'll probably put some win money on Grasshopper because I think he's a good horse (not sure how good yet, though.)

I think a win bet on anybody not named Street Sense is a poor bet in this race. He is about as likely a winner as you could possibly have in a race. ALL of his last five races on dirt are better than ANY of the others here have EVER run in their entire careers, and there is literally no reason to think that he is vulnerable in this spot. If he can track down Hard Spun when that one was loose on the lead going 10f, I am sure he can handle CP West or Grasshopper even if a favorable pace scenario develops for those colts.
Actually, depending on what the board does, a win bet on Street Sense might actually be where the value (albeit not much) is here. I doubt if it will happen but if he goes off at his 3/5 ML in this race, I think there is some value there. He is a 1/9 shot if ever there was one.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think a win bet on anybody not named Street Sense is a poor bet in this race. He is about as likely a winner as you could possibly have in a race. ALL of his last five races on dirt are better than ANY of the others here have EVER run in their entire careers, and there is literally no reason to think that he is vulnerable in this spot. If he can track down Hard Spun when that one was loose on the lead going 10f, I am sure he can handle CP West or Grasshopper even if a favorable pace scenario develops for those colts.
Actually, depending on what the board does, a win bet on Street Sense might actually be where the value (albeit not much) is here. I doubt if it will happen but if he goes off at his 3/5 ML in this race, I think there is some value there. He is a 1/9 shot if ever there was one.

I actually completely disagree with this. I see no value in betting Street Sense in that he is sure to be an underlay. He should have won the Jim Dandy with plenty in reserve almost without asking. However I counted 13 cracks of the whip and a lot of action from Calvin to get by CP West who didn't ever go away. I have this theory that this is not his preferred set-up for a peak performance and by that I mean he does well with a solid pace and perhaps bigger fields, with a smallish field and moderate pace he doesn't have the explosiveness. That and the oddities about each and every one of his trips make me just a bit sceptical.

The big thing in his favor is that this race didn't attract any monsters or real up and comers, so it should be his for the taking. I'm looking hard at this Grasshopper, need to check out his tg# from the last race.

[Slewbopper]

I would single SS in multi race bets...P3/P4. Only way to bet the Travers IMO. Then again he might be so heavily played in these wagers that it will still be a waste of money. A good race to not bet if you are capable of watching a race without any action. I am sure I will get sucked into some sort of wager.

[Bobby Fischer]

I will look at the superfecta.
I agree with the public on Street Sense, but I disagree about CP West.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I actually completely disagree with this. I see no value in betting Street Sense in that he is sure to be an underlay. He should have won the Jim Dandy with plenty in reserve almost without asking. However I counted 13 cracks of the whip and a lot of action from Calvin to get by CP West who didn't ever go away. I have this theory that this is not his preferred set-up for a peak performance and by that I mean he does well with a solid pace and perhaps bigger fields, with a smallish field and moderate pace he doesn't have the explosiveness. That and the oddities about each and every one of his trips make me just a bit sceptical.

The big thing in his favor is that this race didn't attract any monsters or real up and comers, so it should be his for the taking. I'm looking hard at this Grasshopper, need to check out his tg# from the last race.

To me this is the key point. I think that even if everything you say is true, and this is not his "preferred set-up for a peak performance," he will almost certainly win anyway against these. If Curlin or AGS was here, that would obviously be a different story. At 10f, I don't think he needs anywhere near his peak performance to win this particular race.
On top of that, I'm not sure that we won't see a peak performance out of him. His Jim Dandy was his first back off a layoff and was clearly not the race the barn was pointing towards. Although talk of barns getting their horse to peak for specific races is generally incredibly overblown, this one seems to do very well when they are gunning for a particular race as they are here.
My larger point was that I often think people get locked in to trying to "beat" all odds-on favorites. While this can be a good general principle, not all odds-on favorites are created equally. If a horse is 3/5 or 4/5 and should be 1/5....there is some value there. As far as I am concerned Street Sense falls into this range. Say he goes off at 3/5 and Grasshopper goes off at 8/1. To me there is more value in Street Sense than in a horse making his stakes debut, and his 10f debut, in a G1 race with a horse like Street Sense. Could Grasshopper win? Sure. But I would put the odds on that happening at about 20/1.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Street Sense at anywhere near even money is a steal.

1/2 is the highest you will see on him.