Hard Spun & Belmont Distance

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I laughed! Too funny.

Culin hasn't been asked to a do a thing in the morning since Asmussen got him...he's basically trained him for stamina and endurance since the moment he got him.

When he got the horse about three and a half months ago, he got a horse who'd just won a MSW sprint race in wire-to-wire fashion, in supersonic time.

Through Asmussen's "Quarter horse training" -- he's managed to turn what looked like a speed sprinter/miler, into a deep closing router....who was 13 lengths off the pace in the Preakness, inspite of constant urging from his rider to try to get him to pick it up.

Well stated, DrugS

In track (bike) racing, the rider who can push the bigger gear has a huge advantage. While he can go faster than the other cyclists while spinning less RPMs, he also needs to be stronger and have more stamina in order to push the bigger gear. Given enough distance of ground, and assuming an UNobstructed path, this rider will always win. The others might spin smoother and quicker than he can but in the long run he'll be going the fastest. Simple physics.

And that's exactly what happened in the Preakness. Curlin took a long time to get into gear. Despite lagging early, a needlessly wide trip, and taking longer to change in the lane than the others, when he finally got that big gear moving, it was all over. That was a TURF TYPE late move on the dirt.

Now, how does this horse lose in the Belmont? There won't be a 20 horse obstacle course (like the Derby). Hard Spun can go as slow or as fast as he wants. If he goes too fast, he's cooked. If he goes too slow, when it comes time to sprint in the lane, he can't match the bigger gear pusher.

Simple as that.

[Pedigree Ann]

Dosage is garbage. Garbage in, garbage out.

Check out Conduit Mare Profiles for these horses, which appear at the bottom of the pedigrees for subscribers at PedQuery. Curlin's has 9 presences on the speed wing, and 13 in the stamina wing. Hard Spun has 10 on the speed side and 13 on the stamina side.

Another thing to note is the GSV (Genetic Strength Value), developed by the man behind the matings that produced St. Jovite and Farda Amiga, etc. Curlin's is 69.80 and Hard Spun's is 79.96; the higher the number, the better quality the pedigree is for classic distances. (Teuflesberg, in contrast, has a GSV of 58.94).

If you have to have numbers rather than a reasoned analysis of the entire pedigree, I suggest both of these in concert as a replacement for the deeply flawed Roman Dosage numbers.

[byalip]

Pedigree Ann--

You may think dosage is gargage, but missing out on the chance for this brilliant insight was well worth all the ciphering:

Digger - DI 4.33 CD 1.00 - Bred for eating and pooping

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Hard Spun wont win but give him 90% chance to hit the board.

As long as Gomez knows that the race is 1 1/2 miles and that Digger LOL will have no chance to hold up speed the whole way.


The bigger question is will the 9/5 favorite Curlin be able to run the distance!!!!

1 3/16 was a good distance and at 1 1/8 he looked terrible the last few yards
Plus the regression thing does not help either

WTF?!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yeah, I'm not sure what he meant.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

WTF?!

I think he was talking about me at the end of a mile and an eighth.