Preakness Beyer

[philcski]

I'm convinced the Preakness Beyer came back too low. Using the "projection method", looking only at the route races for the day, normalized to 9F using the formula of 110%*the final 1/2 furlong for the 8.5F races and subtracting 1/3 of the final 1.5F in the Preakness (a CONSERVATIVE approach):

R1) ALW 8.5F Bond Fire 1:43.91 -> 1:51.07
R3) AOC 8.5F Smart Pace 1:43.55 -> 1:50.94
R9) the Barbaro 8.5F Chelokee 1:43.44 -> 1:50.70
R11) the Schaefer 9F Flashy Bull/Hesanoldsalt 1:47.86 -> 1:47.86
R12) the Preakness 9.5F Curlin/Street Sense 1:53.46 -> 1:47.2
R13) 16K Starter Hcp 8.5F Fire Hero 1:45.43 -> 1:52.70

Using Fire Hero as the key, a very consistent older type who clearly ran his race on Saturday, assigning him a 75 yields:

An 88 for Bond Fire (reasonable on the stretchout)
An 89 for Smart Pace (no opinion)
A 91 for Chelokee (which indicates he regressed off the Florida Derby by 4 points, which I can accept as he could have regressed 5 lengths and still won)
A 113 for Flashy Bull/Hesanoldsalt (a significant improvement over their previous 105 and 107's, but not totally crazy as these clearly are two colts on the upswing)
A 118.6 for Curlin/Street Sense

I don't know for sure if the 75 is the right number for Fire Hero, even though that's what I felt most comfortable with. Even if you say he ran a 71 it's still a 115 for the Preakness, and an 87 for Chelokee and 109 for the Schaefer.