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#1
05-12-2007, 08:02 AM
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Samarta,
Any time someone who has never met me or spoken to me calls me a name, I take absolutely zero offense. Again, while my words were chosen poorly, I did not report that Hard Spun was stabled at Churchill Downs. I said that the clocker in question had watched him train "since his arrival at Churchill." If you want to get technical, Hard Spun DID arrive at Churchill in mid-April. He just happened to leave a few hours later and head back to Keeneland. I feel people focused on this poorly-worded passage because it made it easier to dismiss what I was "reporting" in the first place, which was that a clocker told me that Hard Spun looked sore and stiff, and I would not be betting on him as a result. I have no idea if the horse was sore or not, but he sure didn't run like it in the Derby. Every year, there is a horse (or two) who runs a great race in defeat in the Derby. That horse then gets heavily-bet in the Preakness, but loses again. Just to name a few: Cavonnier Prince of Thieves Congaree Medaglia D' Oro Peace Rules Lion Heart Closing Argument Sweetnorthernsaint I think Hard Spun and Curlin are in danger of joining that list this year. 
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#2
05-12-2007, 08:09 AM
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You might want to take Lion Heart off that list ( I don't remember what Prince of Theives did so I will leave him alone against my better instincts ). All he did was get carried in the Derby by a wet track that hardly allowed anyone to make a significant move from behind. In fact, for that reason, perhaps Imperialism is the horse you should be using.
And, I wouldn't characterize those horses' performances as " great. " Semantics?
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#3
05-12-2007, 08:12 AM
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And...Peace Rules? He was on a pace that completely held together. He ran well but hardly special.
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#4
05-12-2007, 08:20 AM
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Quote:
K, here's where we disagree, the story was that an expert writer for the Derby website reported on the condition of horse and when doing so didn't get his location right. That was the story...While we would all like to think that for handicapping purposes people overlooked the error, but the fact that your blog was the only report out there that would indicate he didn't look good...all other reports, accounts, phone calls, etc...said this colt was training and looked great...the only thing handicappers had to determine was whether or not, the workout took too much out of him... Again, my apologies.... Sam
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#5
05-14-2007, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Other than remember hearing that Cavonnier get impeaded by a football that someone in the Preakness infield threw on the track..I don't remember much about his Preakness race. Prince of Thieves was still elidgible for an N2X allowance coming into the Preakness...in fact, he retired with two career wins. The press played up how Imawildandcrazyguy was originally named Cupcake Melee---well, Derby starter Sam P. was originally named Prince of Thieves. Congaree ran very well in the Derby--that can't be disputed. Though, he also shouldn't be faulted for running 3rd to powerhouse stablemate Point Given, after some pretty mild early trouble. Medeglia D' Oro was soundly beaten but had very serious trouble in the Derby and Peace Rules ran OK I guess. Both were Bobby Frankel trained horses who ran subpar...many Frankel cynics credit the Pimlico stakes barn for the two non-efforts in the Preakness. Lion Heart was clearly inferior to Smarty Jones..but yeah, he made a worse account of himself in the Preakness. Closing Argument was the longest shot on the board in the 20 horse Derby field (I believe even a bigger price than Bandini's rabbit Spanish Chestnut) He didn't run as well in defeat as Afleet Alex did...who was caught down twoards the unfavorable rail path at a key spot in the race. Sweetnorthernsaint had big trouble in the Derby, but he finished in mid-pack and was beaten double digits. He ran 2nd in the Preakness inspite of grabbing a quarter at the break.
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#6
05-14-2007, 10:22 AM
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I never said any of those horses were favored in the Preakness. I said that they all received support in the Preakness based on their Derby efforts, and did not win. Some may have run OK, but by and large, I would say most of them ran worse than expected at Pimlico.
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#7
05-14-2007, 10:26 AM
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Sweetnorthernsaint finished a solid second to Bernardini. He didn't disappoint to me.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#8
05-14-2007, 10:31 AM
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As someone who is going to bet against SS with HS or Curlin....I just hope you're not making a real short term and flimsy trend as the main basis for your opinion that both might be bad bets.
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