Best individual performance by a Derby horse this year

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I've been very disapointed with what I've seen from this crop...compared to what I've seen at this time from ones in years past.

I think both of Curlin's races have been super impressive. He not only won his maiden race in spectacular fashion visually, by double digit lengths, but, he also ran a faster adjusted final time, and thus faster speed figure than the Holy Bull Stakes, which featured eventual Wood winner Nobiz Like Shobiz, eventual FLA Derby winner Scat Daddy, and eventual Santa Anita Derby favorite Sam P. He got his 7 furlongs in 1:22.25. A few races later Nobiz won the Holy Bull in 1:35.46---basically Curlin needed only a 13.21 final 1/8th to better that time...which he certainly would have done.

Obviously, he did that without getting any real pressure against maidens...but it's very rare that you see a horse win a debut race, in faster adjusted final time, than a major stakes winner on the same card. Over the last few years, only Discreet Cat (faster than Lost in the Fog's King's Bishop win) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (faster than Pine Island's Gazelle win)

In Curlin's 2nd start, he was far less impressive from a speed figure standpoint, however, he did something you almost never see. Off a front running maiden win at a sprint distance, he won a Graded Stake at a route distance, from off the pace. Doing so in no doubt about it fashion.

Deadly Dealer's allowance win, while first time Pletcher, also impressed me very much. However, both of those horses are very lightly raced, and don't exactly strike me as the kind of horse you'd want in a race like the Derby.

I've not been all that impressed by any of the Graded Stake preps so far. I think Great Hunter's comeback race was pretty good, and the efforts of the top two in the Tampa Derby weren't bad. But I sure hope something steps up next week.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

For overrated performance I would say Circular Quay in the LaD, they don't set up any better than that, was allowed to loaf early on.

There are quite a few viable candidates for most overrated performance in my mind.


I think by far the most underrated performance was the 4th place finish by Hard Spun in the Southwest Stakes.

Before you even watch the race, you have to keep in mind that there was a strong inside bias that day...and speed was holding up exceptionally well. For example, a Wayne Lukas maiden, got an easy lead in a maiden race on the undercard, and exploded to a wire-to-wire win with a 107 Beyer, while running almost two full seconds faster than an ALW race for 3yo males.

Hard Spun, who'd been on the lead in all of his previous races, was taken back, behind a comically slow early pace (At the same distance earlier on in the card, a bottom level condition claimer, with very modest speed and a horrible form went wire-to-wire after setting much faster fractions)

To make matters worse, he was positioned out wide...on a day when you needed to be inside.

Now, a superior horse can sometimes overcome a true track bias. A superior horse can sometimes overcome a pace disadvantage, and a superior horse can sometimes overcome a bad tactical ride. However, no horse can overcome all 3---unless he's literally double digit lengths better than his opposition.

From a handicapping prospective, Hard Spun had every reason in the world to run markedly below his career worst race. And while he missed the board, in a cheap stake, against bums---he did so with a solid 95 Beyer. If you believe the figure of that race, and you factor in the trip and circumstances, that performance is right there with anyones in this crop now.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There are quite a few viable candidates for most overrated performance in my mind.


I think by far the most underrated performance was the 4th place finish by Hard Spun in the Southwest Stakes.

Before you even watch the race, you have to keep in mind that there was a strong inside bias that day...and speed was holding up exceptionally well. For example, a Wayne Lukas maiden, got an easy lead in a maiden race on the undercard, and exploded to a wire-to-wire win with a 107 Beyer, while running almost two full seconds faster than an ALW race for 3yo males.

Hard Spun, who'd been on the lead in all of his previous races, was taken back, behind a comically slow early pace (At the same distance earlier on in the card, a bottom level condition claimer, with very modest speed and a horrible form went wire-to-wire after setting much faster fractions)

To make matters worse, he was positioned out wide...on a day when you needed to be inside.

Now, a superior horse can sometimes overcome a true track bias. A superior horse can sometimes overcome a pace disadvantage, and a superior horse can sometimes overcome a bad tactical ride. However, no horse can overcome all 3---unless he's literally double digit lengths better than his opposition.

From a handicapping prospective, Hard Spun had every reason in the world to run markedly below his career worst race. And while he missed the board, in a cheap stake, against bums---he did so with a solid 95 Beyer. If you believe the figure of that race, and you factor in the trip and circumstances, that performance is right there with anyones in this crop now.

Speaking of Hard Spun, I see where they are now reporting that he will skip the Bluegrass so that he can test the surface at Churchill Downs this week.

I just don't get it, why couldn't they run in the Blue Grass, since he already has a poly win to his credit, and then test the Churchill surface in the week leading up to the derby. If at that time they felt he didn't like the surface they could withdraw him. Then I guess he could head to Pimlico and test that surface.

I will be surprised if they conclude that he doesn't like the CD strip, he'll go in the derby imo.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think there is a lot of foolishness going in with how Hard Spun is being managed.

I'd never question the trainers horsemanship ability---I think he's solid, however, I'm not a fan of some of the quotes I've heard come from him going back to that Southwest Stakes.

Look at Lawyer Ron---he certainly loves it at Oaklawn Park, and he ran terrible in his two races at Churchill...albeit the two most important races in the country. I've always believed each horse is its own entity...and each racetrack is its own entity. Certainly each race is its own entity.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There are quite a few viable candidates for most overrated performance in my mind.


I think by far the most underrated performance was the 4th place finish by Hard Spun in the Southwest Stakes.

Before you even watch the race, you have to keep in mind that there was a strong inside bias that day...and speed was holding up exceptionally well. For example, a Wayne Lukas maiden, got an easy lead in a maiden race on the undercard, and exploded to a wire-to-wire win with a 107 Beyer, while running almost two full seconds faster than an ALW race for 3yo males.

Hard Spun, who'd been on the lead in all of his previous races, was taken back, behind a comically slow early pace (At the same distance earlier on in the card, a bottom level condition claimer, with very modest speed and a horrible form went wire-to-wire after setting much faster fractions)

To make matters worse, he was positioned out wide...on a day when you needed to be inside.

Now, a superior horse can sometimes overcome a true track bias. A superior horse can sometimes overcome a pace disadvantage, and a superior horse can sometimes overcome a bad tactical ride. However, no horse can overcome all 3---unless he's literally double digit lengths better than his opposition.

From a handicapping prospective, Hard Spun had every reason in the world to run markedly below his career worst race. And while he missed the board, in a cheap stake, against bums---he did so with a solid 95 Beyer. If you believe the figure of that race, and you factor in the trip and circumstances, that performance is right there with anyones in this crop now.

I agree 100% with this. Not to mention the ground loss at Oaklawn at a mile is even MORE significant because you lose an entire 1/16th to make that ground up in the stretch.

I'm mystified at the decision to skip the Blue Grass and try to win the Derby off a 6 week layoff. Monkey see, monkey do I guess.

[byalip]

Curlin in the Rebel. A dominating performance by a runner who took command over the race and the track. Did he even breathe hard? I believe I remember that his run out was even impressive.

[theiman]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There are quite a few viable candidates for most overrated performance in my mind.


I think by far the most underrated performance was the 4th place finish by Hard Spun in the Southwest Stakes.

Before you even watch the race, you have to keep in mind that there was a strong inside bias that day...and speed was holding up exceptionally well. For example, a Wayne Lukas maiden, got an easy lead in a maiden race on the undercard, and exploded to a wire-to-wire win with a 107 Beyer, while running almost two full seconds faster than an ALW race for 3yo males.

Hard Spun, who'd been on the lead in all of his previous races, was taken back, behind a comically slow early pace (At the same distance earlier on in the card, a bottom level condition claimer, with very modest speed and a horrible form went wire-to-wire after setting much faster fractions)

To make matters worse, he was positioned out wide...on a day when you needed to be inside.

Now, a superior horse can sometimes overcome a true track bias. A superior horse can sometimes overcome a pace disadvantage, and a superior horse can sometimes overcome a bad tactical ride. However, no horse can overcome all 3---unless he's literally double digit lengths better than his opposition.

From a handicapping prospective, Hard Spun had every reason in the world to run markedly below his career worst race. And while he missed the board, in a cheap stake, against bums---he did so with a solid 95 Beyer. If you believe the figure of that race, and you factor in the trip and circumstances, that performance is right there with anyones in this crop now.

Great analysis.
Hope he likes the CD surface and finds a way to make it in to the Derby

[slotdirt]

Eh....I just can't be excited about this 3YO crop. The winners this weekend almost seemed to win because someone had to cross the finish line first. Very curious decisions with Hard Spun and Circular Quay leading up to the big race in three weeks.

I honestly think this is the year the juvy jinx is broken, and why not? We've had geldings, PA-breds, NY-breds, and horses with RAN-line damsires win in the last five years. If I had to bet a dollar today on the Derby, I'd bet Street Sense over Great Hunter. Aside from that, I'm just not impressed. I'll be rooting for Hard Spun, but I'll have a hard time betting on a horse - if he makes the Derby - who hasn't raced in forever. Same with Circular Quay.

[Sightseek]

The Street Sense & Any Given Saturday battle for me.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

The Street Sense & Any Given Saturday battle for me.

Ditto... I got lucky to be there for that and I was really impressed with that race.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Good question because this year in particular seems devoid of impressive performances. a few that impressed me,

Street Sense - pretty solid return effort.
Curlin - second race looked damn good and very professional
Ketchikan - not that it matters now, showed speed and stamina.



For overrated performance I would say Circular Quay in the LaD, they don't set up any better than that, was allowed to loaf early on.

His time and speed figures were pretty good for that race, those overrated too?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

His time and speed figures were pretty good for that race, those overrated too?

basically, yes, that's what I am saying.

[10 pnt move up]

yes, the tampa bay derby was the only one I watched and thought that those two horses were legit. its early, some horses might develope over the next few months.

[Cannon Shell]

I think all of Birdbirdisthewords races have been outstanding

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Speaking of Hard Spun, I see where they are now reporting that he will skip the Bluegrass so that he can test the surface at Churchill Downs this week.

I just don't get it, why couldn't they run in the Blue Grass, since he already has a poly win to his credit, and then test the Churchill surface in the week leading up to the derby. If at that time they felt he didn't like the surface they could withdraw him. Then I guess he could head to Pimlico and test that surface.

I will be surprised if they conclude that he doesn't like the CD strip, he'll go in the derby imo.

This may be the most poorly handled Derby horse with a shot since Unbridled's Song. I mean they keep going back to how the horse handles a particular surface. I just dont get it. They have a viable contender in a year with very few of them that dont have big question marks. They could probably have the post time favorite if he were to win the Bluegrass in which he would be third choice at worst. They are either overthinking thesituation or the horse has an issue that they dont want to disclose.

[JJP]

I'd probably say Curlin in the Rebel and Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Derby.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

This may be the most poorly handled Derby horse with a shot since Unbridled's Song. I mean they keep going back to how the horse handles a particular surface. I just dont get it. They have a viable contender in a year with very few of them that dont have big question marks. They could probably have the post time favorite if he were to win the Bluegrass in which he would be third choice at worst. They are either overthinking thesituation or the horse has an issue that they dont want to disclose.

My hunch and its just a hunch, is that there is an issue and they are trying to get to the derby taking the path of least resistance. Its the kind of handling that makes me wonder if they are trying to sell before the derby.
Otherwise I'm like you, I just don't get it.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

This may be the most poorly handled Derby horse with a shot since Unbridled's Song. I mean they keep going back to how the horse handles a particular surface. I just dont get it. They have a viable contender in a year with very few of them that dont have big question marks. They could probably have the post time favorite if he were to win the Bluegrass in which he would be third choice at worst. They are either overthinking thesituation or the horse has an issue that they dont want to disclose.

Well the owner obviously didn't think much about his outfit for Lanes End Day.

If he did... well lets just say Hard Spun is doomed.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by JJP

I'd probably say Curlin in the Rebel and Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Derby.

I would also put Curlin #1, with both Tampa Bay derby performances in second.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

This may be the most poorly handled Derby horse with a shot since Unbridled's Song. I mean they keep going back to how the horse handles a particular surface. I just dont get it. They have a viable contender in a year with very few of them that dont have big question marks. They could probably have the post time favorite if he were to win the Bluegrass in which he would be third choice at worst. They are either overthinking thesituation or the horse has an issue that they dont want to disclose.

I dont like the surface comparison either and agree it sounds fishy, but I also wonder if they arent trying to ask him to do too much in a short period and ruin their horse for the rest of the year and beyond. If he won the Bluegrass then he'd be one of the top betting choices for the Derby, which would be 3 weeks after the Lane's End, where he just won with his lifetime top Rag. Thus that would be 2 tough races in a row going into the derby on three weeks rest, and his 3rd Triple Crown prep/race since March24. Seems daunting to me. If he wasnt cooked after the Bluegrass, then I think he would after the derby. If you had Hard Spun in your barn, how would you handle him assuming he came out of the Lane's End in good order?