Picking tracks

[2MinsToPost]

Since I am on a roll, let me also add this. I am only 10 minutes away from Scioto Downs, the Harness capital of Columbus . Early money in the pools is a GOOD SIGN in the Harness world in my opinion. I speak from my heart on this, the majority of harness races I bet I don't hardly look at the PP's. I look at the Driver - Trainer combo and a quick scan at the tracks this horse has been racing at.


I bet this exacta last night on that hunch and did well at The Meadowlands

2007-02-24 18:05:00 Bet* Meadowlands 9 Exacta $1.00 5+7+9/1+5+6+7+9 $12.00 $80.30

I was asleep when it ran, and checked the results just now. Using that angle.

Just my 2 cents

Try to understand how the trainer thinks ie is he setting a horse up for a race or is he using it to get it race fit. focus in on horses that like certain tracks tight bends usually suit forward running horses ,long straights suit sitters.
Focus on good jockeys for that track the better the jock is running the better the ride he is offered, The best jocks usually end up with the best rides as they make more money that way,
Hope this helps

[hockey2315]

I think you need to identify your strengths and focus on tracks that offer alot of races that you feel comfortable handicapping successfully. Personally, I tend to do much better in Stakes and allowance races, especially on turf, so I follow NY, Calder/Gulfstream, and sometimes KY. Saratoga tends to be by far my most successful meet because all the horses are relatively good horses and they have alot of graded stakes. If you're better at claimers or other lower level races, you'd be better off following tracks like Mountaineer, Evangeline, or Sam Houston. Just decide what you like to bet and what you excel in and follow that track as closely as you can.

Originally Posted by Mugwump

Quick question from a newbie: I've read that it may be best to concentrate your handicapping efforts on one or two tracks. There is no local track here, so I have to pick one out-of-state. How do you determine which tracks you want to focus on? What kind of criteria do you use to choose one track over another?

Mug, I think that 'stick to one or two tracks' sentiment refers more to focusing on one or two tracks when handicapping so you don't end up playing the next race that is on your monitors. Many people tend to play the 'next available race' and since there are races going off at several tracks all day long, they tend to only spend a minute or two handicapping the race and rushing up to the windows. That style of handicapping can put a dent in your wallet real quick.

Just as an example, I sometimes go to the track with a buddy of mine who excels at cards (I HATE playing cards). While I am settling in reading my form and handicapping a race, my buddy blindly rushes up to the window to make a bet at whatever track is about to go off - then plays the next race, and the next, and the next. He sometimes is down $100 before I've finished handicapping one race and placed my wager. He needs that 'quick play' fix to feed his gambling jones that he is used to when playing cards. We generally split 'my bets' (he knows I'm a decent handicapper, so he wants part of my action), but there hasn't been a single time when he has won more than me at the end of the day. I can have a great day, and he ends up even or ahead just a little. Horse racing should be a slower paced sort of gambling adventure. Take it slow. Don't be in a rush.

Don't just blindly rush to play whatever race is about to go off is the main point. Study a little, make a decision and place your wager.

My advice for any noob would go something like this:

Your first goal should be to learn how to read the Daily Racing Form, and understand all the information that is presented. That is your Bible, and it takes a little time to learn to read it and identify the subtleties.

I'd also suggest a little supplemental reading when you aren't at the track, and to that end I'd suggest Andrew Beyer. Start with his book 'Picking Winners', then move onto 'Beyer on Speed', and finally 'The Winning Horseplayer'. Some people really hate the guy, but he's sharp as hell and I actually understood the little 'exercises' he presented in his books. If you don't see his example at first, re-read it.

Start with his first book, 'Picking Winners' and read the others as I mentioned them, as he builds on previous examples and reading them out of order is only going to make a difficult assignment more difficult.

Also, us handicappers are pretty much starved to share our knowledge with potential newcomers. Don't be afraid to ask some old fart sitting by his lonesome about his thoughts on a race. If you win a decent amount, buy him a beer or throw down a bet for him on a horse in the next race. DON'T just take his advice and pocket all your winnings. Take the opportunity to build a bit of commaradarie and show some gratitude and maybe you'll gain a short term tutor. (Beyer relates a story about someone he once helped cash large and got 'stiffed' afterwards in one of his books).

For a noob, I'd also suggest playing the larger tracks - the So Cal circuit, the Kentucky circuit, the Florida circuit, the NY circuit. Texas also has some decent tracks to play (Sam Houston and Lone Star). Most of those states have a track I'd stay away from. I don't like playing Fairplex in So Cal, Turfway and KY Downs might require a little more understanding of lesser known jocks and trainers in Kentucky (although I actually love playing those two tracks), Aqueduct in NY is $#!%hole I avoid. Calder in FLA is maybe a pass for me most days. Play the larger circuits like Hollywood Park, Santa Anita and Del Mar in So Cal. Belmont or Saratoga in NY, Churchill or Keeneland in KY. Gulfstream is the premeire FLA track (usually only one major meet is going in any state).

Playing the major meets will give you a basic familiarity with the top jocks, trainers, and even owners that will allow you to follow the bigger days of racing a little more knowledgeably than focusing on smaller tracks, and the friends that tag along on Derby day or Breeders Cup will be impressed with the knowledge you bring.

If that is a little more work than you are looking for, a few basic tips I'd give is bet to win, or play some cheap exotic bets like an exacta, daily double, trifecta or PK3. I really don't like place or show betting in most circumstances. The times I've hit on a decent 'across the board' (placing a win place and show bet on a horse) I'd have been much better off putting it all on that horse to win.

Also, I generally try to beat the favorite. I might take a shot with the favorite if I can get 2-1 odds or better, but to a complete novice going to the track on a lark I'd say focus on horses at about 4-1 to 10-1. Those horses will generally at least stand a decent chance of winning - as opposed to the 20-1 types that are usually longshots for a reason.

Really though, any track and any race has the potential to pay nicely, so the ultimate goal of winning can be achieved anywhere, anytime. Personally I think racing is a 'top-down' sort of learning curve. Learn on the big tracks to establish a baseline of knowledge, and then apply that knowledge at the smaller tracks when you are a little more savvy as a player.

One last note, if you are going after the 'big score' the 10 cent superfecta is available at many tracks, and it is your best friend. It can be played relatively cheaply, and there is a significant IRS advantage to playing it. In short, a $2 base SFC wager will be an IRS ticket with a payout of $602 or more (meaning you have to pay taxes on it). A $1 SFC wager will be an IRS ticket if it pays $601 or more. A 10 cent SFC bet will be an IRS ticket at $600.10 - but if you play that 10 cent ticket 10 times, you could conceivably cash up to $6001 without paying the tax man.

Beating the tax man is a lesson for another day though, and the SFC is a tough wager to cash on - so learn the basics first (although playing a small 10 cent ticket once in a while might pay off nicely, so don't be afraid to give it a go once you understand the basics).

[westcoastinvader]

Beating the tax man is a lesson for another day though, and the SFC is a tough wager to cash on - so learn the basics first (although playing a small 10 cent ticket once in a while might pay off nicely, so don't be afraid to give it a go once you understand the basics).[/quote]


VERY GOOD post Groundhog.

I especially liked the insight on the .10 wagers. I had read and thought about that before back in the ESPN board days, but it had left my potential playbook until you once more mentioned.

One addendum I will make......that we all know........as good American taxpayers.......is that all winnings should be declared as income. Whether the the withholding plateau is reached on the individual wager, or not.

I normally have at least a couple of signers each year.

But I also toss my losing tickets into a manilla envelope to offset the profit come tax filing time. I toss in my lottery losers, too!

I actually get a real kick going to the CPA and giving him the docs for my gambling winnings. It seems that's not all that common of an occurence.

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

Beating the tax man is a lesson for another day though, and the SFC is a tough wager to cash on - so learn the basics first (although playing a small 10 cent ticket once in a while might pay off nicely, so don't be afraid to give it a go once you understand the basics).

VERY GOOD post Groundhog.

I especially liked the insight on the .10 wagers. I had read and thought about that before back in the ESPN board days, but it had left my potential playbook until you once more mentioned.

One addendum I will make......that we all know........as good American taxpayers.......is that all winnings should be declared as income. Whether the the withholding plateau is reached on the individual wager, or not.

I normally have at least a couple of signers each year.

But I also toss my losing tickets into a manilla envelope to offset the profit come tax filing time. I toss in my lottery losers, too!

I actually get a real kick going to the CPA and giving him the docs for my gambling winnings. It seems that's not all that common of an occurence.

Well, I've heard a lot of complaints about that 10 cent SFC wager being a 'piker bet', and some experienced players kinda turning their nose up at it and grumbling about getting shutout because some small timer was playing it.

It's a sweet deal though if you think about it. If you think your $1 SFC might pay $600-$6000, bet it in 10 cent increments and play it 10 times.

...but don't take all those 'would have been an IRS' tickets up to the teller all at once. They are obligated to combine them and tax you at the regular rate. Run them thru a self serve machine, or take them up to a teller one, two, three at a time - just don't go over $600 total in winners at a teller. Because really, you bet one for your wife, one for your friend, one for your grandma, one for the little boy that lives down the lane, etc. Right???

One addendum I will make......that we all know........as good American taxpayers.......is that all winnings should be declared as income. Whether the the withholding plateau is reached on the individual wager, or not.

I don't think that is true, unless maybe you declare yourself as a professional gambler.

For the average fan going to the track once in a while (or even frequently) your non-IRS winnings are free and clear.

What you do need to do if you do have an IRS ticket is accumulate losing tickets that equal or exceed your winnings if you want to write off losing wagers (there is no shortage of losing tickets to be found at a track/OTB).

I'm no tax expert, but I don't think we are all expected to account for every winning and losing ticket we wagered.

Who keeps track of all that nonsense?

I just wanted to thank everybody for their input and advice. I have a better idea where to start, and in the meantime I'm going to keep reading the books. I ordered Picking Winners and Betting Thoroughbreds yesterday. Now I just have to pick the tracks I want to follow and study away . . .

Thanks again!

[cakes44]

Go to the home of the sorest horses in America: Beulah Park.