Japan racing, 2014~15

[Kitan]

Wouldn't surprised if any of about half the field won this. One of the toughest renewals in recent memory. Not much speed in here and I've keyed that into consideration.

Here's my first four:

#4 Epiphaneia is my top pick. Is a G1 winner, a G2 winner at 12f, has won on firm, has won on soft...Needed the run when coming back at Hanshin in April and I really liked his run in HK. Caught three wide feeling the breeze and battled on bravely against a quality field. Just used the last to get back into action and will be much improved this time around. Has a great draw and can sit right behind the lead. May drift upwards of 10-1 and that is very tasty, especially with Soumillon.
#18 Trading Leather: G1 winner as a 3yo at 12f and has been G1 placed a handful of times since. Has tactical speed to negate the poor draw. Overseas runners have been horrendous recently but the connections know what it takes to win big abroad.
#3 Gentildonna: Very much the one to beat, but can she really win 3 in a row????
#9 Isla Bonita: Beaten fav in the Tenno Sho, but even with that result has done very little wrong to date. Should get a great trip but the 3yo fillies have been more successful than their male counterparts recently.

The following in number order...
#6 Harp Star: Has never run a bad one but will be hampered by her running style.
#8 Denim and Ruby: Fantastic second last year and I feel you can make legit excuses for her runs since, but I don't think the race will be run to suit.
#10 One and Only: Not much separates him from #9, however, the theme is running style and I think he'll be pace compromised.
#15 Spielberg: 5yo very much on the rise, but I just doubt that he has the speed to sit closer at this level.

Not exactly sure how I'll play it yet, but I know I'll be keying the 4.

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Massive kidney sweat on the 10, the 15 getting it bad too...won't be using either if it stays like that.

[Kitan]

$42 to win!!!!!!!!

8-1 in Japan, was 4-1 at one point there...wow!!

[my miss storm cat]

Very nice, Kitan! Cheers!

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I'm trying to look at this with an open mind instead of being bogged down with favorites (cause there are so many!) and find some value but yes, good choices (!).

I'm looking at One and Only, Tamamo Best Play and Epiphaneia...

So I ended up just putting all three on top in a big exacta... was out of time and didn't know wtf else to do so happy about my choice.


Nov. 29, 2014 04:56 PM 987BF60373B4 Online Gaming Japan 11 $1.00 EX 4,10,12 / 1,4,6,9,10,12,15,18 $21.00 $129.75

edit - Oh man I did not know about Trading Leather. Awful.

[SundayStar]

nice call Kitan. great to see Epiphaneia put it all together. i've always liked him and thought he would win some big races but has underachieved a bit until now. who would've thought that the '89 Kentucky derby winner's grandchildren would be the top 5 finishers in the Japan cup 25 years later. amazing.

[Kitan]

Thanks you two, and nice hit MMSC! Really thought the pace would go the way it did and gave him a dream trip. What a dominant performance...we will definitely be hearing more from him.

Didn't think Just A Way would be as effective at 12f so that cost me the exotics. Thank goodness for our dumb Canadian money on Up With The Birds...100-1 over there and 11-1 here, inflating Epiphaneia's price. Double helped too.

[my miss storm cat]

Would love to hear thoughts on the Champions Cup (the race formally known as the Japan Cup Dirt) SS, Kitan, Coachie et al.

The Japanese runners...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141202.pdf

... and the American...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141202-02.pdf

[Kitan]

Imperative draws the rail...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/141205.html

[Kitan]

Copano Rickey the early 3-1 fav on the JRA tote. Imperative 17-1. I'll have to take a closer look at the race tomorrow night.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Copano Rickey the early 3-1 fav on the JRA tote. Imperative 17-1. I'll have to take a closer look at the race tomorrow night.

Originally Posted by Kitan

Imperative draws the rail...
http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/141205.html

I want to say well that's not good, is it, but am just so thrown off by it being at Chukyo I'm not sure I know what I've even doing trying to cap it.

So the whole 1st and 2nd place finishers of the JBC Classic angle... man I just don't know about that now. KInda feel like that is out the window.

I do like Copano Ricky and Chrysolite (winner and 2nd place) but I think I will look elsewhere and take a shot.

Looking at Incantation, Roman Legend and Best Warrior. My two sentimental horses are Wonder Acute and Grape Brandy but I think I'll only be using Wonder Acute. Also looking at the mare, Sambista and Wide Bach and yes I realize that is half the field.

Might just do something similar to last time... an exacta with Roman Legend, Best Warrior, and Incantation over Wonder Acute with either Copano Ricky, Chrysolite, Air Khalifa, Sambista or Wide Bach. Can you tell I don't know what Im doing here? Was not planning on using Imperative, for the record. A mistake?

Honestly this is exactly the kind of race I should just sit out and watch so maybe I will just do a single win bet on one of the three and leave it alone!

Good luck, Kitan, SS, Coachie, Dagolfer et al. and come home safe, Danon Come On (why is he running here?).

Morning line...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141206.pdf

Edit: Okay so this is what I did and will do $10. to win on one of the three I used on top (probably Incantation but still thinking). Kinda worry about not using Wonder Acute on top... Ah well. Good luck everyone and come home safe, kids.

Dec. 6, 2014 10:24 AM 541E29A173BB Online Gaming Japan 11 $1.00 EX 2,12,15 / 2,3,5,6,7,8,11,12,14,15 $27.00

[Kitan]

Tough race...definitely not as confident this week as last. Doesn't appear to be a lot of pace in the race, but with Ryan Moore on a horse that likes to sit second hopefully he doesn't let Copano Rickey get a loose lead. Seems like a lot of these have had their chance in previous editions of this race.

#13 Kazenoko: Has thoroughly flourished since switching to the dirt and don't kid yourself, that was a great effort last time out. First run left handed off a layoff, he got a mile back in a race dominated by speed horses (although those were also the favoured runners which does make it a tough read) and was the only one to make up any sort of ground. I believe his last 3f were in 34 and change...can't come home any quicker. Prior form is similar to past 3yo winners of this race. Concerned by the potential lack of speed but I can't resist on a 50-1 chance.
#8 Hokko Tarumae: Caught three wide no cover and battled on well off a long layoff. Third in this race two years running and will get a very favourable trip today. Now or never.
#2 Best Warrior: Just found the 10f a little too much last time and will appreciate the subtraction of a furlong. Improving stalker with a good strike rate.
#14 Copano Rickey: From 250-1 winner in February to the favourite. The one to run down but I think he'll be targeted and may come up short.

A bunch of others have place chances...

Good luck all!

[Kitan]

Ryan Moore won three yesterday and has four wins on the card so far today and so he thinks he can do whatever he wants and win. Five wide essentially last to first on the backstretch, back to his butchering ways I see...

[Kitan]

Kidney sweat alert on Copano Rickey.

EDIT: drying out...

[my miss storm cat]

Hokko wins. Hope you used him in the top spot, Kitan! I lumped him in underneath at the last minute cause I thought huh... I should maaaybe use him I guess. Some fine handicapping right there.

Only predictable thing for me was poor old Danon Come On finishing last. Ugh.

Replay...

http://web-cache.stream.ne.jp/web/jr...404070211&ua=4

Full order of finish...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141207.pdf

[my miss storm cat]

Not sure if I'm going to play the Asahi Hai Futurity but will look at it while waiting for the Arima Kinen. It's at Hanshin this year instead of Nakayama (Saturday night).

Ash Gold, the projected favorite, is a full brother to Orfevre and Dream Journey so he'll be fun to keep an eye on. Danon Platina is VERY pretty (no really though) and then the Heart's Cry baby, Navion, is pointed as well. (Oh and since I am now reverting back to pretty horsieness I do so love the name Quetzaltenango).

PPs...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141211.pdf

[my miss storm cat]

Insanely good field shaping up for the Arima Kinen!

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141217.pdf

[my miss storm cat]

Asahi Hai Futurity:

Barrier draw...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/141219.html

Morning line...

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141220-02.pdf

So aside from Ash Gold, who will clearly be the favorite here, was looking for a price so consided Clarity Sky, Navion, Cosmo Nine Ball, Quetzaltenango and Tagano Espresso.

For this race only (and not for their general futures) had decided not to use Active Minoru, Just Doing, Danon Platina, Wakino Hibiki, Meisho Masakaze, Tagano Azaghal (pretty boy!) or Peisha of Law.

Anyway the more I look at this race it is just such a crap shoot so completely sitting it out and waiting for the great race next weekend. Best of luck if you're playing and please feel free to share who you like (Coachie, Kitah, Sunday Star, Dagolfer et al).

[my miss storm cat]

Danon Platina wins...

http://web-cache.stream.ne.jp/web/jr...405090611&ua=4

http://japanracing.jp/_news2014/pdf/141221.pdf

[Kitan]

MMSC, if you want to see something cool, search Tokyo Racecourse on Google Maps and explore in Street View. You can walk the course and even travel the tunnels to/from the paddock!!

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Kitan

MMSC, if you want to see something cool, search Tokyo Racecourse on Google Maps and explore in Street View. You can walk the course and even travel the tunnels to/from the paddock!!

edit - That was awesome! Thanks, Kitan... it just never would have occurred to me to do that. VERY cool!