Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:20 PM
wac wac is offline
Aqueduct
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 615
Default

I think the thing with zfortune that woke me up was his post position in the Ark derby. I rememeber reading a story that when smarty was going for the 5mil bonus after he left from 11 i think in the ark derby and won,granted he rolled in that race, the owners of Oaklawn strated getting nervous and while he didn't win he put in a pretty good race i think. would think that he will have pretty good odds and may liven things up in the exotics. Another thing to think about is that everyone is going to be talking about Pyro and how many times have we seen where a trainer has some horses in and everyone gets on the "one" and the others are left out it is sometimes that other horse that runs big. I can think of real quiet=indian charlie? and peace rules=empire maker. What do i know just food for thought.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:23 PM
Bogey's Avatar
Bogey Bogey is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,471
Default

I ran this scenario through my head this afternoon. Prado will probably stay on Tale of Ekati for the Derby. What if Pletcher has Johnny V ride Monba and have Luzzi (or similar jock) on Cowboy Cal just to add to the early pace (rabbit). Just something to think about. I've been a fan of Monba since his allowance win at CD and this could be his best chance in a wide open Derby.

I like SH's dozen at this point, but will wait for the CD workouts/Draw to make final decision. Of course, then you have how the track is playing on Derby day to deal with.
__________________
Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:28 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
If you can overlook the way Pyro exploded past him in the lane in the Risen Star - and his next out non-effort in the Rebel.
In the sheets era of bad efforts being good and great efforts being bad he is looking better all the time
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:37 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
In the sheets era of bad efforts being good and great efforts being bad he is looking better all the time
I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:40 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.
I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:47 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern
I'm just going by what I heard the Ragozin Sheets John Hardoon say about BB and his Derby pattern.

He's supposed to be an expert at that stuff - I happen to think it's mostly nonsense.

Where do you stand on that?
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:52 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bogey
I ran this scenario through my head this afternoon. Prado will probably stay on Tale of Ekati for the Derby. What if Pletcher has Johnny V ride Monba and have Luzzi (or similar jock) on Cowboy Cal just to add to the early pace (rabbit). Just something to think about. I've been a fan of Monba since his allowance win at CD and this could be his best chance in a wide open Derby.

I like SH's dozen at this point, but will wait for the CD workouts/Draw to make final decision. Of course, then you have how the track is playing on Derby day to deal with.
Prado's agent said today that EP would be on Monba or Adriano and that Tagg has already been informed that he will not be aboard Tale of Ekati.

NT
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:52 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I'm just going by what I heard the Ragozin Sheets John Hardoon say about BB and his Derby pattern.

He's supposed to be an expert at that stuff - I happen to think it's mostly nonsense.

Where do you stand on that?
I think that they used to be cutting edge and gave those guys a big edge. Nowdays the edge they have is small or doesnt even exist especially since pace is not incorporated into the numbers (supposedly). Just as Beyers are raw numbers that are adjusted based upon different peoples interpretation of the race with little to no regard for pace, trips, surface, post position, etc, they both have flaws and in a world where there is so much information available they dont stand out to me.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:55 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,403
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Prado's agent said today that EP would be on Monba or Adriano and that Tagg has already been informed that he will not be aboard Tale of Ekati.

NT
Hmmmm... Interesting
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 04-15-2008, 08:56 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,610
Default

While I don't like Monba's chances to win and feel like the race is a two-horse contest between Big Brown and Colonel John, I can't find any reason to make fun of anyone else's choices. Even those two have big question marks and in the most wide open Derby I can recall, no choices can be any more ridiculous than any others. Now, if he really likes Monba and isn't just going with him to be different, that's fine. But if he's just going with him to go away from popular opinion, that doesn't make much sense to me.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 04-15-2008, 09:04 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I think that they used to be cutting edge and gave those guys a big edge. Nowdays the edge they have is small or doesnt even exist especially since pace is not incorporated into the numbers (supposedly). Just as Beyers are raw numbers that are adjusted based upon different peoples interpretation of the race with little to no regard for pace, trips, surface, post position, etc, they both have flaws and in a world where there is so much information available they dont stand out to me.
I was looking more for your opinions and where you stand on the validity of sheet figure patterns and form cycles.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 04-15-2008, 09:07 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.
Big Brown a good pattern, only a Ragozin guy would say that.

As far as Z Fortune, give me a second....
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 04-15-2008, 09:14 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern
BB ran a negative 3 and half via Thorograph message board which is a huge top.

As for Z Fortune, his last race was a bounce off two pairs with good numbers. It would be my guess that Gayego is within that negative range or at least '1' thus making him a huge play against. If Gayego did run that big, then Z Fortune got back to his top in the Ark Derby, thus making him a real good play in the Derby.
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 04-15-2008, 09:22 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Going with Monba is absolutely insane BUT I'll give Haskin credit, he sure as hell got us talking.

Monba's two big races were his maiden win, and now the Bluegrass, he is truly a synethic lover, try and watch the races next to each other(dirt vs synthetic) and see the difference in the way he runs.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 04-15-2008, 09:42 PM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Picking the Derby winner this year can no more amount to spinning the wheel and hoping it lands on your number, I give Haskin some credit for creativity. Beats picking Pyro or Big Brown.

Btw if Giacomo made no sense winning the derby I can't wait to this year. A total guess if you ask me.
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 04-15-2008, 09:46 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I was looking more for your opinions and where you stand on the validity of sheet figure patterns and form cycles.
There probably is some validity to form cycles and patterns if the numbers are fairly accurate. Of course sometimes the numbers are off which can lead to a false interpretation of the pattern.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 04-15-2008, 09:46 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I give Haskin some credit for creativity. Beats picking Pyro or Big Brown.
Monba is regarded as Pletcher's best chance - and that alone will contribute to him being significantly overbet.

There are horses with better chances who will be bigger prices.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 04-15-2008, 10:12 PM
jcs11204 jcs11204 is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: niskayuna
Posts: 1,861
Default

like cowboy cal and court vision
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 04-15-2008, 10:28 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

No
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 04-15-2008, 10:50 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,240
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Going with Monba is absolutely insane BUT I'll give Haskin credit, he sure as hell got us talking.

Monba's two big races were his maiden win, and now the Bluegrass, he is truly a synethic lover, try and watch the races next to each other (dirt vs synthetic) and see the difference in the way he runs.
This is incorrect or confused. The MDN win and Blue Grass both came at KEE... You may mean his ALW win at Churchill on closing day as a point of comparison of his dirt/poly form.

I would think a win at the Downs has merit in evaluating his Derby prospects...

And considering how individual flop races are being crossed out on several competitors' PP's during this Derby run-up, I don't know why Monba supporters couldn't cross out his difficult FOY and be happy with his credentials. He's not for me, but he's certainly as appealing as several others being supported on flimsier evidence.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:49 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.