#21
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Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.
The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range. Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#22
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Arrogate is the best horse since The Bid, and The Bid was better than Secretariat!!!! |
#23
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6 of those were 2yo champions in one form or another. The other 5 were not, and would not have been even if there were formal Eclipse Awards at the time. |
#24
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"I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'." |
#25
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http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=56 It's impossible to have a logical, honest conversation about horses like this with some folks. Their percentages are 100% winner and there is no way it's anything but that. Despite the fact, ya know, it's horse racing. |
#26
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Go read Bids pp's . And in 79 when toot was real everybody was hopped up. The point is that better hosses than AP have failed.
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#27
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1963: Chateaugay- won 2 of 5 starts at 2; lost Preakness 1964: Northern Dancer- champion 2yo in Canada (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont 1966: Kauai King- won 1 of 4 starts at 2; lost Belmont 1967: Damascus- won 3 of 4 starts at 2 including Remsen; lost Derby 1968: Forward Pass- stakes winner in 2 starts at 2; lost Belmont 1969: Majestic Prince- winner of both starts at 2; lost Belmont 1971: Canonero II- won 1 of 3 starts at 2 (2 in NA); lost Belmont 1972: Riva Ridge- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Preakness 1974: Little Current- maiden in 4 starts at 2; lost Derby 1976: Bold Forbes- won 7 of 8 starts including stakes; lost Preakness 1979: Spectacular Bid- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont 1981: Pleasant Colony- won 2 of 5 starts including Remsen; lost Belmont 1984: Swale- won 5 of 7 (2nd in vote for champion); lost Preakness 1987: Alysheba- won 1 of 7 starts, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Belmont 1988: Risen Star- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Derby 1989: Sunday Silence- won 1 of 3 starts; lost Belmont 1991: Hansel- won 3 of 5, stakes winner; lost Derby 1993: Tabasco Cat- won 3 of 6, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Derby 1995: Thunder Gulch- won 2 of 6 including Remsen; lost Preakness 1997: Silver Charm- won 2 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont 1998: Real Quiet- won 2 of 9 starts, including G1; lost Belmont 1999: Charismatic- won 1 of 7 starts; lost Belmont 2002: War Emblem- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Belmont 2003: Funny Cide- won 3 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont 2004: Smarty Jones- won 2 of 2 including stakes; lost Belmont 2006: Afleet Alex- won 4 of 6, G1, 2nd in Eclipse voting; lost Derby 2008: Big Brown- won only start at 2; lost Belmont 2012: I'll Have Another- won 1 of 3, stakes placed; did not attempt TC 2014: California Chrome- won 3 of 7, including stakes; lost Belmont Now, recent Triple Crown winners: 1973: Secretariat- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9) 1977: Seattle Slew- champion 2yo (won 3 of 3) 1978: Affirmed- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9) Finally, 2015: American Pharaoh- champion 2yo (won 2 of 3) Other curiosities: -2 of Bob Baffert's other Triple Crown failures won 2 of 3 starts as 2yos. American Pharaoh won 2 of 3 starts as a 2yo. -of all the horses listed, only 2 ran in the Del Mar Futurity at 2, Silver Charm and California Chrome, both of whom failed in the Belmont. American Pharaoh won the Del Mar Futurity last year. -average starts at 2 for modern Triple Crown winner = 7 -average starts at 2 for recent Triple Crown failure = 5 -24 of the 29 Triple Crown failures competed in stakes as 2yos |
#28
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#29
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I have a very important question....
what is toot???
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Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma |
#30
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Listening to Baffert told you as much he NEVER thought Dortmund an undefeated Multiple Graded winner had a pray when they matched up and Dortmund is at least or shall we say as good or better then CC last year. |
#31
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In my world Cocaine
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#32
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Last edited by Arletta : 05-28-2015 at 08:12 PM. |
#33
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Pre Derby he was at least equally accomplished
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#34
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Somehow, this is proof that American Pharaoh is a cinch? All that proves is that if American Pharaoh loses the Belmont, fans will simply claim he should have won the Triple Crown. Just like he should have won the BC Juvenile (never mind that physically he couldn't even start in the race). |
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The wind of heaven is that which blows between a horse’s ears – Arabian Proverb |
#36
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...but i think you are right. He could do it.
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Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization. https://www.rerunottb.com/:) |
#37
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it's a good sign that we had 7 chances in the 2000's so far.
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Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization. https://www.rerunottb.com/:) |
#38
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You've written that AP is "a stone cold cinch" to win the Belmont. How much of that is due to his squeaking out a 53%/47% win over Texas Red, 126-111? In fact, AP got less than 50% of all the votes cast for 2-yr-old Champion.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#39
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#40
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