JAZIL....Most Overrated horse in the history of horse racing.... - Page 12

slotdirt · #**221** 02-09-2007, 03:19 PM

Has anybody made excuses for Jazil yesterday? I haven't heard any.

Forgot about War Emblem selling for cheap as a weanling, same with Funny Cide. Afleet Alex probably was sold as a youngster as well before the Fasig Tipton MidAtlantic sale.

Dunbar · #**222** 02-09-2007, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Couple things...

I was at the race and did not bet it, so no rationalizing here, either.

You leave out the effect of takeout. To me that means it's often the case that there's no horse in any single race worth betting if the actual odds do not exceed your own handicapped line for every horse in that given race to the extent you require to make a wager.

When I looked at this race, I was close in my estimation of what the horses would go off at. I figured JAzil would go off at 4/5, Corinthian at 5/2 and King of Jazz at 7/2. The others I was close on. I would have bet Jazil at 3/2, Corinthian at 7/2 or KoJ at 9/2. None of these were at those numbers.

Total "acceptable" odds for these three horses alone add up to about 1.15-1, so I knew going in it was a race I would not be very likely to bet.

Most races look this way to me. You?

STS, I didn't leave out the effect of track takeout. I said that not being willing to bet Corinthian at 2-1 suggests that one does not think Corinthian has a 33% chance to win the race. That statement is independent of takeout. If Corinthian has better than a 33% chance to win the race, then 2-1 is a good bet. (even more so when 2-1 represents everything from 2-1 to 2.49-1). I also wrote that if Corinthian has at most a 33% chance to win the race, then the other horses must have at least a 67% chance to win the race. That's also independent of takeout. The chance of all the horses has to add to 100%.

I agree with you that most races don't have a good bet. I usually won't bother to make a line unless I have good reason to think the public will seriously over- or underestimate a particular horse. Even then, I often end up with no horse to bet.

I didn't cap the Corinthian/Jazil race, so I can't really comment on the odds you came up with.

--Dunbar

Gander · #**223** 02-09-2007, 03:50 PM

Has anybody made excuses for Jazil yesterday? I haven't heard any.

Ummm, the jockey moved too soon, Corinthian was just too fast for him, Gulfstream favors speed.

slotdirt · #**224** 02-09-2007, 03:52 PM

Corinthian was just too fast isn't an excuse, it's a fact.

Gander · #**225** 02-09-2007, 03:53 PM

True, but I really found the jockey moving too soon very funny. Like it would have mattered when he moved.

Cajungator26 · #**226** 02-09-2007, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Corinthian was just too fast isn't an excuse, it's a fact.

LOL Slot... not sure why, but this comment sounded funny to me.

slotdirt · #**227** 02-09-2007, 03:59 PM

If one horse being faster than another is an excuse, then there's an excuse for every horse in every race.

Downthestretch55 · #**228** 02-09-2007, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If one horse being faster than another is an excuse, then there's an excuse for every horse in every race.

Slot,
I'm just happy to see Corinthian back. That was a very serious injury, and when I first started talking about him last year, well, I know Jim Jerkens had his hopes on finally having a derby horse. Didn't happen.
My best guess is that good things are ahead.
btw...this year I'm looking at Exhale. His sire, Millenium Wind, stands at High Cliff Farm where I breed mine. Take a look...nybreds.com, link at right (blue),
Click stallions...also press room.

Gander · #**229** 02-09-2007, 04:15 PM

That performance way exceeded Jimmy's expectations yesterday, that I can tell you. This horse has a huge future if able to stay healthy. Couldnt happen for a better guy.

Cannon Shell · #**230** 02-09-2007, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Everyone is entitled to their opinion about which horses they like and don't like, but to create a thread devoted to a horse that is supposedly the most overrated horse in the history of horse racing is just ridiculous. I would be happy if he belonged to me... as long as he's bringing home a paycheck (which he did yesterday), that's what matters.

Chuck, let's be honest here... would you complain if Shadwell decided they wanted to put Jazil in your stable? Would you turn them down? LOL

For the record, I think Jazil is a mediocre horse as well, but I sure as hell wouldn't be complaining if I owned one that made me almost a million bucks. I can promise you that.

This has nothing to do with me.

Is Jazil a good horse compared to the average horse? Of course. But is he a good horse compared to past Classic winners? Certainly he would be in the bottom 10% in modern times. Is he a horse that has won 2 races in Feb of his 4 year old year? Yes. Would he have won the Belmont had it really meant anything and Bernardini had run? Most likely no. Could he improve and go on to be a top calibur horse? Maybe but if were to retire right now history would soon look at him as another Sarava, Commendable, or Go and Go who are all forgetable except to the connections.

Cannon Shell · #**231** 02-09-2007, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Chuck with a Grade 1 Winner? I think he almost got one with Battle Won.In the 2005 Breeders CUP SPRINT??? No...Uh ,no,not that race....Must have been the race at Del Mar.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...le.cgi?id=6485

Maybe in 2007

Scuds has a clue?? Check back in 2015.

Cannon Shell · #**232** 02-09-2007, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManilaRose

Not sure I'm in the correct thread but I have 25-50K I'd like to spend on a mediocre racing prospect. I'd like to run 2nd in the GI Wood Memorial, then run 4th in the GI Kentucky Derby, and then win the GI Belmont Stakes. Any help would be appreciated in purchasing this type of mediocre animal.

If Jazil was a $25k horse then the story might have a little more appeal.

Cannon Shell · #**233** 02-09-2007, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

When its all said and done, I wonder who will accomplish more...

Funny Cide or Jazil?

Jazil has a lot of work to do to get on par with the 3 time grade 1 winner, but nothing is impossible, especially if Jazil can find more soft grade 1's.

Problem is not a lot of racetracks are condusive to Jazil's running style. Funny Cide made his own racing luck and is a horse who rarely gets in trouble or throws "my dog ate my homework" excuses around when he loses.

Funny Cide is way ahead now

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**234** 02-09-2007, 06:38 PM

jara did move to soon ..fyi

ManilaRose · #**235** 02-09-2007, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Jazil was a $25k horse then the story might have a little more appeal.

He's not a mediocre $25k horse....and that was my point. I don't think we're really that far apart of our opinions on him now that you revised it a few posts ago. He's not likely to accomplish what Funny Cide has due to what you stated earlier. They're aren't 1 1/2 mile races for him. Therefore he'll be left to pick up the pieces in the races that are available to him and probably make quite a bit of money in the process. I just don't consider any horse mediocre that picks up checks multiple times in graded events. Is he mediocre within the handicap division? Possibly. The rest of his career will tell.

Cannon Shell · #**236** 02-09-2007, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManilaRose

He's not a mediocre $25k horse....and that was my point. I don't think we're really that far apart of our opinions on him now that you revised it a few posts ago. He's not likely to accomplish what Funny Cide has due to what you stated earlier. They're aren't 1 1/2 mile races for him. Therefore he'll be left to pick up the pieces in the races that are available to him and probably make quite a bit of money in the process. I just don't consider any horse mediocre that picks up checks multiple times in graded events. Is he mediocre within the handicap division? Possibly. The rest of his career will tell.

I never revised my opinion on the horse . Until proven otherwise he is a 2nd tier handicap horse that needs a distance that he will not get and has a style that makes it tough for him on the dirt.

Picking up checks is great for those on the Dee Tee stable budget but you expect a little more from Classic winners. The fact that he has lost three times in three chances in allowances races does not lead me to believe that he is on his way to the head of the class anytime soon.

Scav · #**237** 02-09-2007, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Has anybody made excuses for Jazil yesterday? I haven't heard any.

Forgot about War Emblem selling for cheap as a weanling, same with Funny Cide. Afleet Alex probably was sold as a youngster as well before the Fasig Tipton MidAtlantic sale.

Slot, I don't think WE was sold as a weaning, he was a home-bred to Reinenman, who died like two years later after selling him. The guy had all the money in the world, and went and did that.

You have the opposite in Calabrese, who hasn't sold Dreaming of Anna, because he has all the money in the world, and loves winning races

ManilaRose · #**238** 02-09-2007, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Slot, I don't think WE was sold as a weaning

I'm not positive. I posted that he sold for 20k and Slot was replying. I found it on SI.com derby archives. It said 20k as a weanling but I'm not sure.

ManilaRose · #**239** 02-09-2007, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I never revised my opinion on the horse .

Ok, so maybe revised isn't a good word. Maybe clarified would be better. I agree that he is a mediocre classic winner, not that he is a mediocre horse.

Gander · #**240** 02-09-2007, 07:48 PM

Is he a horse that has won 2 races in Feb of his 4 year old year? Yes.

I dont get this? Jazil hasnt won any races since the Belmont Stakes. Can you explain?

Hooves, I wont argue with maybe Jara did move too early, but do you think it cost him any different finishing position? I know you stated a fact, regardless of how good Corinthian was, Jara may have movd too soon. But in my opinion if he waited he would have still been 2nd best, only maybe 3 lengths better at best.

And I dont get the whole "he only cost $25K" argument. Who the heck cares how much horses cost except for the owner? It should make no difference at all to the fans, none. Zip. Nada. The argument is how good a horse Jazil is compared to other triple crown winners.

Like Canon, I will stay firm with my opinion. Doesnt not make him a neat little horse. Ya like him, ya like him.