Asmussen: No Rachel for Blossom

[TouchOfGrey]

Is it 2010 yet?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Gio Ponti never would have been in the classic if it was run on conventional dirt, it would of been a whole different field. Not a bunch of dirt and turf specialists running on plastic.

who?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

who?

First of all Rachel would have been pointed towards the Classic and not the Woodward, that's all you need to know, game over.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by kgar311

First of all Rachel would have been pointed towards the Classic and not the Woodward, that's all you need to know, game over.

oh I see...thats very debatable, I think Zenyatta is a tad bit more horse than Macho Again, especially another 1/8th to run.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

oh I see...thats very debatable, I think Zenyatta is a tad bit more horse than Macho Again, especially another 1/8th to run.

how do you think rachel alexandra stacks up with dance to my tune and anaabas creation?

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Gio Ponti never would have been in the classic if it was run on conventional dirt, it would of been a whole different field. Not a bunch of dirt and turf specialists running on plastic.

Since synthetics play so much like turf, I guess beating them on their favored surface doesnt mean anything.

[westcoastinvader]

It's ironic that you suggest that Rachel Alexandra's camp somehow mismanaged their filly. Her 2009 season was clearly one of the greatest campaigns for a 3yo filly of all time. Unfortunately, it appears as though that campaign has gutted her in much the same way that fillies like Silverbulletday, Winning Colors, and Genuine Risk were gutted.

Of course, Zenyatta supporters will turn a blind eye to this probability, equating the 3yo Rachel Alexandra with the 4yo version. Sadly, that group must rely on Rachel Alexandra failing this season to be able to trump up their own heroine, who, ironically, has few real noteworthy accomplishments herself, save one.

As far as Zenyatta is concerned, make no mistake, being "managed well" has more to do with what races you don't run in, not what races you do.

Yes, the Moss's and the Shirreffs have pulled off an amazing stunt; they have created the illusion that Zenyatta is unbeatable. And it is the main blight on her career.

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____

First, I'm more of a fan of enjoying Zenyatta's wins than saying claiming she is unbeatable. However you are correct in that Zenyatta has never been beaten in 15 races.

It's an agreed in advance tainted stat, but Rachel Alexandra has been beaten in over 25% of her 15 races. She may have taken on all comers, but not necessarily successfully.

If her connections brought her to the Breeders Cup she might have moved to being beaten in 31% of her races. We'll never know, because they didn't show. They don't run their horse on that kind of track (though Berkeley's Jess Jackson will get his grapes and $$ from California soil).

I agree that Rachel Alexandra had one of the greatest 3 year old filly campaigns of all time. Through those 8 races she was placed and managed with perfection.

When I cite mismanaged, I note she had six+ months off and returned to lose and then seemingly her camp has given up on seeing Zenyatta anytime soon. Even calling off a scheduled date in their comfort zone dirt and supposedly out of Zenyatta's comfort zone.

It was seven months between the September 5 Woodward and the April 9 Apple Blossom.

Knowing what the racing world was thinking, expecting and all were pointing to, I'm now sure anyone here defends they played all their cards superbly.


I'm happy to celebrate Rachel Alexandra's great success AND Zenyatta's fun career.

[letswastemoney]

The field is cut in half in terms of legitimate contenders by having it on synthetics.

Not every turf horse is going to try to synthetic Classic

All the dirt-only horses have no chance, even if they do try

Cut out the Eastern based G1 dirt horses because the record of the BC shows they have never won on a Pro-Ride BC race, and cut out the turf horses who choose to race in the Turf Classic,

And you have one watered down field filled with a couple of superb turf horses (Gio Ponti, Twice Over)

Eastern-based dirt horses who have no chance
(Summer Bird, Mine That Bird, Regal Ransom, and others)

Then you have the Southern California older horse division (lol)
(Colonel John, Richard's Kid)

Then you have Zenyatta, who can pull off 112ish beyers on any surface.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Since synthetics play so much like turf, I guess beating them on their favored surface doesnt mean anything.

If you don't have goosebumps after reading this, you don't like horse racing!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

When I cite mismanaged, I note she had six+ months off and returned to lose and then seemingly her camp has given up on seeing Zenyatta anytime soon. Even calling off a scheduled date in their comfort zone dirt and supposedly out of Zenyatta's comfort zone.

A horse not 100% for the seemingly biggest race of its life could not possibly be in its comfort zone. Since no one here could know in what condition Rachel Alexandra is in, relative to her peak form, we can only take Steve Asmussen et al. at their word.

Knowing what the racing world was thinking, expecting and all were pointing to, I'm now sure anyone here defends they played all their cards superbly.

What the racing world was expecting (A $5 million Apple Blossom) was unrealistic with respect to Rachel Alexandra's physical condition.

If anyone is to blame for derailing a possible matchup between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra it is clearly Charles Cella.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If you don't have goosebumps after reading this, you don't like horse racing!

Touche.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

It's an agreed in advance tainted stat, but Rachel Alexandra has been beaten in over 25% of her 15 races. She may have taken on all comers, but not necessarily successfully.

If her connections brought her to the Breeders Cup she might have moved to being beaten in 31% of her races.

I tracked down the losing percentages for comparison with Rachel Alexandra.

Twilight Tear lost 25%. Busher lost 29%. Azeri lost 29%. Then a couple male superstars to compare to: Secretariat lost 24% and Phar Lap lost 27%. Rachel's on pace with some big names, and even if she'd lost again, well the great ones can't win 'em all and Gallorette lost 71% of her races, Makybe Diva 58%. I agree with Steve, you can't be afraid of losing. It's not indicative of a lack of greatness, and Jess should've gone with his first instinct and not even tried to make the Apple Blossom if he was that gun shy about her getting beat due to lack of readiness.

She's overcoming a lot. It's hard enough for any horse, but fillies with that kind of time on their hands could be ruined just from too much of an opportunity to think about the making of the babies.

Something I've wondered about. If Jackson thought he was going to lose the Apple Blossom (rightly or wrongly) he might not wanna give Zenyatta the chance to get within a hair's breadth of the NA earnings record held by, drumroll please, his horse Curlin. I don't blame him, it is something to consider.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Something I've wondered about. If Jackson thought he was going to lose the Apple Blossom (rightly or wrongly) he might not wanna give Zenyatta the chance to get within a hair's breadth of the NA earnings record held by, drumroll please, his horse Curlin. I don't blame him, it is something to consider.

The only thing more useless and more circumstantial than an unbeaten record is the earnings record.

[GenuineRisk]

I find it very interesting that when a filly appears to lose a step, people start saying, "Oh she's thinking about making babies," while, when a colt loses a step, no one ever says, "Oh, he wants to hurry up and start his stud career."

Seriously people, they're horses. I think it's very unlikely they even associate mating with procreation, let alone their performance on a racetrack.

[letswastemoney]

If every filly that ran a 100 beyer was suddenly thinking about babies, we'd have no more female stars in horse racing!

[slotdirt]

I'm in the midst of reading Lord Derby's recollection of Ouija Board's career, and dang, that mare lost all the freaking time to some really awesome competition, and I don't hear anybody saying she wasn't one of the best turf mares the world has seen in the last 15 years.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

It's ironic that you suggest that Rachel Alexandra's camp somehow mismanaged their filly. Her 2009 season was clearly one of the greatest campaigns for a 3yo filly of all time. Unfortunately, it appears as though that campaign has gutted her in much the same way that fillies like Silverbulletday, Winning Colors, and Genuine Risk were gutted.

Of course, Zenyatta supporters will turn a blind eye to this probability, equating the 3yo Rachel Alexandra with the 4yo version. Sadly, that group must rely on Rachel Alexandra failing this season to be able to trump up their own heroine, who, ironically, has few real noteworthy accomplishments herself, save one.

As far as Zenyatta is concerned, make no mistake, being "managed well" has more to do with what races you don't run in, not what races you do.

Yes, the Moss's and the Shirreffs have pulled off an amazing stunt; they have created the illusion that Zenyatta is unbeatable. And it is the main blight on her career.

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____

First, I'm more of a fan of enjoying Zenyatta's wins than saying claiming she is unbeatable. However you are correct in that Zenyatta has never been beaten in 15 races.

It's an agreed in advance tainted stat, but Rachel Alexandra has been beaten in over 25% of her 15 races. She may have taken on all comers, but not necessarily successfully.

If her connections brought her to the Breeders Cup she might have moved to being beaten in 31% of her races. We'll never know, because they didn't show. They don't run their horse on that kind of track (though Berkeley's Jess Jackson will get his grapes and $$ from California soil).

I agree that Rachel Alexandra had one of the greatest 3 year old filly campaigns of all time. Through those 8 races she was placed and managed with perfection.

When I cite mismanaged, I note she had six+ months off and returned to lose and then seemingly her camp has given up on seeing Zenyatta anytime soon. Even calling off a scheduled date in their comfort zone dirt and supposedly out of Zenyatta's comfort zone.

It was seven months between the September 5 Woodward and the April 9 Apple Blossom.

Knowing what the racing world was thinking, expecting and all were pointing to, I'm now sure anyone here defends they played all their cards superbly.


I'm happy to celebrate Rachel Alexandra's great success AND Zenyatta's fun career.

so true. i agree with your post 100%. you left out rags to riches who lasted in one start, the belmont. the campaign was great but it came at a price. as it always does and your examples are proof. if the horse is that good and can't run in 7 months (unless hurt). theres a problem. they took a royal flush and got about a full house now (with equipment changes). i would not call that playing your hand superbly.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

so true. i agree with your post 100%. you left out rags to riches who lasted in one start, the belmont. the campaign was great but it came at a price. as it always does and your examples are proof. if the horse is that good and can't run in 7 months (unless hurt). theres a problem. they took a royal flush and got about a full house now (with equipment changes). i would not call that playing your hand superbly.

It is playing your hand superbly if your goal is to have your 3yo filly complete one of the most remarkable dirt campaigns by a filly or mare in decades. Racing should be thankful that RA ran in the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward instead of spending all summer and fall beating up on her own sex.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

It is playing your hand superbly if your goal is to have your 3yo filly complete one of the most remarkable dirt campaigns by a filly or mare in decades. Racing should be thankful that RA ran in the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward instead of spending all summer and fall beating up on her own sex.

People have it in their heads for some reason that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta have been locked in some sort of long distance rivalry since they both started racing. There was really no mention of a matchup until after both won on the same day in May (the Mother Goose and Milady respectively).

I guess Jess Jackson and co. at that point should have skipped any significant and/or tough race (it worked for Zenyatta...) so they could be ready at a moment's notice when Team Z decided they needed to run against Rachel Alexandra.

[prudery]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

People have it in their heads for some reason that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta have been locked in some sort of long distance rivalry since they both started racing. There was really no mention of a matchup until after both won on the same day in May (the Mother Goose and Milady respectively).

I guess Jess Jackson and co. at that point should have skipped any significant and/or tough race (it worked for Zenyatta...) so they could be ready at a moment's notice when Team Z decided they needed to run against Rachel Alexandra.

Team Z didn't decide to run against Rachel--it was a mutual decision by all connections , and Team Z was going to the AB anyway as per schedule ...

Several months of prep for an April 9 race is not a moment's notice .

Nobody wants to see these two run when one or both are not prepared, but the operative word may be prepared .

If--as some have said--Rachel was not ready for the " toughest race of her career " , what does that unintentially say about the Haskell, Preakness, and Woodward--not to mention Zenyatta ???