Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Well done. That was the most evenly matched Travers from Top to bottom that I can remember.

Thanks.

Sunday picks.

Race 2 - #3 Cairo Sugar 4/1
Race 8 - #5 Noble Huntsman 12/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 5 - #5 Runaway Rumor 3/1 - I don't know what to say other than I can't quit her. Do think she's a little dirtied up and hoping Ricardo defaults back to her winning style sitting back and making one run.

Best Value: Race 8: #2 Be of Courage 8/1 - Has spent the majority of his career sprinting but the dam was a confirmed router. Navy has ridden him a few times now including the impressive maiden breaker going back. Low profile connections should ensure a nice price and I'm looking for a bit of an outsider in this field today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks.

Sunday picks.

Race 2 - #3 Cairo Sugar 4/1
Race 8 - #5 Noble Huntsman 12/1

Cairo sugar scratched. Give me race 7 - #6 Stellamaris 5/2

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

[theguarantee]

Well that was sick - was going to make Sail With the Wind a play off the debut - didn't think there was any dirt breeding so just tossed in my stable mail and didn't even use in my picks. Ugh, onto the final week....

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

Wednesday picks.

First bet: Race 5 #3 Antares 10/1. So, I love this horse in this race. I might be wrong but he was bumped at the start 2 back but still rushed to the front and he just blew those horses off their feet. The runner up is a 4-time 2nd place finisher who still hasn’t broken his maiden but he topped him by 4 lengths and the 3rd place finisher was 14 lengths behind Antares. He has yet to run on dirt but he sports 4 workouts at Saratoga that suggest he won’t have a problem handling the surface at all. Gilmore will be a massive favorite here, and rightfully so. But where exactly is the speed in this race? I think it’s Antares and if he gets loose, he could be very dangerous for a barn that’s been very dangerous in 2023. Breeding suggests he shouldn’t have any issue with 1 mile.

Second bet: Race 8 - #4 Signal From Noise 5/1. I just don’t love the likely favorites in this one and think there is enough pace that you want a horse who can rally from off the pace. I’m not sure about the addition of blinkers here but like that Prat is aboard and think she will appreciate the cutback.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: race 6 # 7 Printrack 8/4
Best Value: Race 7: #14 Katie's Checkride 15/1

[moses]

Thursday picks.

First bet. Race 7 - #5 Get Spooled 10/1. This horse did not have an ideal start but was able to make the lead and never look back. 2nd place finisher came back to win next time out. While Get Spooled got the ideal trip after the bad start, I think he showed talent to overcome that start and looked good in the stretch, repelling the runner up. Lezcano is aboard for Mott and they’ve hit 25%/75% in their last 16 together. I think the 1 horse (also Mott) has some talent but isn’t a router, don’t like betting favorites that add blinkers (the 2), and don’t want to bet Dylan Davis at 7/2 on the 8…so I ended up on this longshot who I think is live.

Second bet. Race 2 - #5 Dorothy’s Dreams 6/1. I loved how this horse fought on in her debut and am hoping for a better start now that she’s got some experience. She took money in her debut, so I take that to mean the connections like her overall talent. I like to see Javy back aboard. Will hopefully be a nice price with the 1 and some of the other connections in the race.

[theguarantee]

Maryquitecontrary wasnt up for the task in that loaded field. Soldier Rising was his usual second best self paying $3.50 to place. I finally signed my divorce papers with Runaway Rumor so look for her next out. Be of Courage flew home but missed a nose paying 6.80 to place. Finally got over a long case of seconditis with Printrack today going gate to wire to pay 13/5.90. Katie's Checkride ran to her price.

Wagered: $280.00
Returned: $299.90

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

Antares was game in defeat. Just missing. I had the wrong Chad Brown horse in race 8.

$280.00 wagered
$286.00 returned

[moses]

Nice call with Printrack.

[theguarantee]

Thanks Moses - lets be on our game the next few days to both close out in the black - good luck.

[Dahoss]

Fantastic job this summer guys. Finish strong. Been fun to watch.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 4 - #2B Freudian 7/2 - Like the furlong cutback for this one today.
Best Value: Race 9 -#7 Giroovin 9/2 - Hoping Falcone gets off the long (
Saratoga slide in a big way today. Think opposite of the other the stretch out to 7F helps this one.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Antares was game in defeat. Just missing. I had the wrong Chad Brown horse in race 8.

$280.00 wagered
$286.00 returned

Well, I’m back in the red after being shut out yesterday. $288.00 wagered, $286.00 returned. Let’s try to change that today.

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 4 - #4 Yacowlef 12/1. I am not hugely against Carl Spackler here but he comes back on short rest and I think this Euro import faced some pretty tough competition in his own right overseas. Jack Sisterson has had some nice success in limited attempts with shippers to the US, though notably is not very good off long layoffs. Still, this one should be a good value play at 12/1 and has shown the ability to run well off the layoff. I’m not sure how the pace plays out here but this one should have some versatility to run near the front or come from off the pace a bit.

Second bet: Race 5 - #10 Tornado Road 12/1. I know that Lukas is horrible with first time starters but I can’t ignore that the 3 most recent workouts are lightning for this 2YO. The 5 Locked will be the rightful favorite here but I don’t want to take a short price on a horse that had early trouble last out (and who, for a Pletcher horse was suspiciously not relevant on the tote board at 12/1.) Locked and his 3/2 stablemate Be You were both beaten in that race by…you guessed it…a Wayne Lukas 2YO (though not a FTS.) Tornado Road worked recently with that horse and put in a 47.80 workout that day. This horse is a half-brother to Carribean Caper, who won 5 of 8 lifetime starts including the G3 Dogwood (all of his non-wins are in stakes races.) Tornado Road also gets the outside post, which I love for these young horses. Yes, they can veer off but they also tend to avoid trouble at the start. This race has some interesting entries, including Locked, Cox’s Drum Roll Please, a Chad, a couple McPeeks, a couple Weavers, and even a rare Irad Mount aboard a Bill Mott horse. But for me, I’m going to take a shot on this one, who I think is very talented.

[moses]

Ok. Now that the 2 stays up, really rooting for the 4 here as I’m alive to a not insignificant double payout and have the 4 in other bets.

[moses]

And. He finishes last. Oh well.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #9 Winners Laugh 5/1
Best Value: Race 8 #7 Hatch 10/1

[moses]

$296.00 wagered
$286.00 returned

Saturday picks

Race 5 - #1 Jersey Pearl 3/1
Race 8 - #2 Dancing Buck 7/2

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #1Danzigwiththestars 6/1
Best Value: Race 11 #5 Clapton 8/1