Derby Fever: Where 'stupid' is contagious

This thread is comedy gold now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Atomic Rain was " courageous " while running a non-threatening fourth with, essentially, a perfect trip? That's funny.

[Ogygian]

Thats why they run the race, did anyone give Giacomo or Closing Argument a chance. At some point they had to do something to get the earnings. Its kinda like the Pistons playing in th playoff's with a losing record, it's like the Chargers getting in the Playoff's at 8-8 and others left out with better records. It's kinda hard to bash connections with Derby fever, I have to believe if any of us had a sound horse and the chances of ever being in that position again are slim to none, why not enjoy the ride.
It's kinda like a chip and chair boys...

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

Anyone that invests money in horse-racing and has an opportunity to run in the derby should take it. A shot in the dark,probably, but if you can get in then you deserve to get in because you spent the money. I'm know many horses over the last few years are in the race because their owners want to say they owned a derby horse and have little chance to win. But if the new or small time owners don't get a chance then why in the hell follow a dream and invest in the game at all.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

In an unrelated story, individuals from certain high schools, regardless of athletic ability, should not apply to Division I colleges -- they are foolish for wanting to play football for the NFL. The point totals they put on the board is clearly due to inferior competition.

Those without a country club membership, even with a high IQ, should not apply to Ivy League schools either -- be happy that they will easily let you into community college.

And why are those kids singing on American Idol? For a shot at a recording contract? Please....

The new American way: aggressively seek the minimum and mediocrity...higher aspirations be damned...seek to sustain a self-imposed caste system and never reach higher than eye-level.

[Travis Stone]

It's a horse race, anything can, and often does, happen. And oh yeah, it's the Kentucky Derby. An extremely small percentage of horses actually have a shot at the race, and an even smaller amount actually make it.

Whether or not horses belong is an argument and discussion we could have for ages. Because, truthfully, there are lots of horses who have not, never will, did not or do not belong. But its the biggest race, it's the biggest stage.

I find it extremely hard to believe that more than 95% of the people on this board would skip the race if they had a chance to run. It's easy when you're behind a keyboard, but if you owned one of these horses, it's not as easy to type "pass."

[Ogygian]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It's a horse race, anything can, and often does, happen. And oh yeah, it's the Kentucky Derby. An extremely small percentage of horses actually have a shot at the race, and an even smaller amount actually make it.

Whether or not horses belong is an argument and discussion we could have for ages. Because, truthfully, there are lots of horses who have not, never will, did not or do not belong. But its the biggest race, it's the biggest stage.

I find it extremely hard to believe that more than 95% of the people on this board would skip the race if they had a chance to run. It's easy when you're behind a keyboard, but if you owned one of these horses, it's not as easy to type "pass."

I agree 100%...look at Win Willy's connections. I am sure alot of people wondered why he was in the Rebel to begin with...Mac took a shot and it paid off. Now he has a shot of a lifetime if he does run. I have to believe that number would be 100% that wouldn't pass up the opportunity to run.

[blackthroatedwind]

I assume that Atomic Rain is running as, essentially, a rabbit for West Side Bernie, or at least to ensure that Quality Road doesn't stroll along on the lead. Of course this was supposed to be the case in the Wood, and instead he was passively tucked inside, and had zero affect on the race one way or another. He probably isn't fast enough to keep up with a good horse early.....and he certainly isn't fast enough to run with one late. But, what the hell, at least he ensures that there will be one less horse entered that could finish ahead of West Side Bernie.

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world. It's relative, but defending Atomic Rain, especially by using Giacomo, doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.

Is it possible to insult Breen?

[justindew]

Atomic Rain has little chance of making the race anyway.

[Ogygian]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I assume that Atomic Rain is running as, essentially, a rabbit for West Side Bernie, or at least to ensure that Quality Road doesn't stroll along on the lead. Of course this was supposed to be the case in the Wood, and instead he was passively tucked inside, and had zero affect on the race one way or another. He probably isn't fast enough to keep up with a good horse early.....and he certainly isn't fast enough to run with one late. But, what the hell, at least he ensures that there will be one less horse entered that could finish ahead of West Side Bernie.

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world. It's relative, but defending Atomic Rain, especially by using Giacomo, doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.

I was only comparing possible odds, in 05 Giacomos morning line was 50-1, there were 4 others listed at 50-1 morning line. He was for all intensive purposes listed as one of the 5 longest shots to win the race.So was he given a snowball's chance, no he wasn't. If Atomic Rain makes the race, he finish a well beaten 18th. What aggravates me more is cross entering in the Derby and Oaks and possibly taking up a spot. Its not like if AR goes he will be taking a "better" horses spot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Ogygian

I was only comparing possible odds, in 05 Giacomos morning line was 50-1, there were 4 others listed at 50-1 morning line. He was for all intensive purposes listed as one of the 5 longest shots to win the race.So was he given a snowball's chance, no he wasn't. If Atomic Rain makes the race, he finish a well beaten 18th. What aggravates me more is cross entering in the Derby and Oaks and possibly taking up a spot. Its not like if AR goes he will be taking a "better" horses spot.

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

And the answer to that would be no.

Glad we settled this.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

And the answer to that would be no.

Glad we settled this.

It's a complicated discussion, but it certainly seems especially relevent this year, in light of Churchill claiming their racetrack is certified as " safe " by the NTRA. While I am sure their intentions are noble, and they have done whatever is possible to ensure a safe surface, the question of whether or not a race is " safe " with 20 horses thundering around that oval seems applicable this year.

It's a long debate, and I am sure there are arguments for both sides, but IMO a stronger argument can be made for reducing the field size. All these " these horses ( it's really people in this case ) have earned a right to run " arguments don't hold water for me. I realize they run 20 plus horse fields overseas....but not on racetracks like Churchill Down's dirt course.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

It would be tough business-wise to make a move like that...

In my opinion, one of the best Derby's ever was '97 with Silver Charm, when they only had to use one gate.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world.

Giacomo at least had run four straight Beyers of 93 or better in his four starts coming into the Derby. An avg of 96 over those four races.

No horse in this years Kentucky Derby field comes in off of 4 straight Beyers in the 90's or better.

Even if people didn't believe his form was made up of one better than looked race after another - and didn't think he was likely to improve form because of pace, distance, and trainer - he still had to be respected some for his consistancy.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No horse in this years Kentucky Derby field comes in off of 4 straight Beyers in the 90's or better.

Musket Man is very upset that you forgot about him.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He does edge in ... I was looking at pool 3 pp's ... he had a 92-91-90 and the Illi Derby race wasn't showing.

Quality Road comes within a point of making it as well.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He does edge in ... I was looking at pool 3 pp's ... he had a 92-91-90 and the Illi Derby race wasn't showing.

Quality Road comes within a point of making it as well.

One other would have passed that test had he had not gotten hurt.