I Want revenge

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

You forgot the lesser competition.

I am sure you were more impressed with Pletchers 2 MSW winners compition, than the winners that Revenge beat. How cynical.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by jpops757

His nice improvement a result of the distance, training on the pro ride, moving to the dirt, the inner at AU,maturity, or just a combination of all of these?

He did not improve all that much, if you are handicapping a race and think a synthetic based horses is going to run well on dirt then add 5-10 points to the figure. I add more for front runners and less for closers. It has worked pretty well for me. Now there is no guarantee that they will run well but that seems to be the range for the difference in figures.

Einstein ran well at Santa Anita but I think earned a pretty poor figure, 103, horses in the past on dirt dont win that race with 103's.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

He did not improve all that much, if you are handicapping a race and think a synthetic based horses is going to run well on dirt then add 5-10 points to the figure. I add more for front runners and less for closers. It has worked pretty well for me. Now there is no guarantee that they will run well but that seems to be the range for the difference in figures.

Einstein ran well at Santa Anita but I think earned a pretty poor figure, 103, horses in the past on dirt dont win that race with 103's.

This last line contradicts your whole statement. If you believe, as you say you do, that synthetic figures are 5-10 points lower than dirt figures then Einstein's 100 Beyer is pretty decent, once you kick in the added points plus a couple more for him being a "stalker."

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

This last line contradicts your whole statement. If you believe, as you say you do, that synthetic figures are 5-10 points lower than dirt figures then Einstein's 100 Beyer is pretty decent, once you kick in the added points plus a couple more for him being a "stalker."

NT

????

No it doesnt....if he got a 100 at SA for the big cap, if he ran that same race in the Donn on dirt my guess is it would be a 105-110 figure. This is completely general and unscientific but the proof is getting pretty staggering that the figures on synthetic are generally slower then dirt if the two efforts are about equal.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

????

No it doesnt....if he got a 100 at SA for the big cap, if he ran that same race in the Donn on dirt my guess is it would be a 105-110 figure. This is completely general and unscientific but the proof is getting pretty staggering that the figures on synthetic are generally slower then dirt if the two efforts are about equal.

I completely agree that the synthetic numbers are slower than dirt.

However, you wrote that Einstein won the Big Cap with a 103 (It was actually a 100).

You then said that that figure was pretty poor but if you use your system (which seems perfectly logical) then you get a dirt BSF of around 108-110. That number wins most handicap races in this sad year.

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I completely agree that the synthetic numbers are slower than dirt.

However, you wrote that Einstein won the Big Cap with a 103 (It was actually a 100).

You then said that that figure was pretty poor but if you use your system (which seems perfectly logical) then you get a dirt BSF of around 108-110. That number wins most handicap races in this sad year.

NT

well obviously I wasnt using the system I employ making that statement.

A horse I would love to get on dirt on a flat mile is Matto Mondo, the Met would be perfect. His 103 two back is probably closer to 108-113 which makes him competitive and he should be a value with such lowish figures in the form. MM ran the best mile of the year on pro ride, got a 103...the best main track mile for horses at santa anita, in front running fashion dont get 103's historically.