6/7: Belmont Stakes Day

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

RE: The Acorn. I don't like Game Face. Should have cruised in her last. Does Dance Gal Dance have enough early speed to soften up Indian Blessing? I'm inclined to use just two in the P4: the 1 and the 5.

Thoughts?

1's legit, 5 is overmatched

[XIIPointStables]

RE: Woody Stephens.

Do we read into Prado getting off Silver Edition and on to a horse that shows one dirt race? Do Prado and Baker have a past?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

RE: Woody Stephens.

Do we read into Prado getting off Silver Edition and on to a horse that shows one dirt race? Do Prado and Baker have a past?

0/3 together in the last year and a half or so. . . Using both but like Fatal Bullet more.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

RE: Woody Stephens.

Do we read into Prado getting off Silver Edition and on to a horse that shows one dirt race? Do Prado and Baker have a past?

The only thing that I can think about when looking at the PPs for the woody is why I didnt crush T-berg. I cant seem to let it go.

[mes5107]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Stream of Gold! Has anyone seen his figures? He is the the most consistent horse in the field, has a positive joc change to Robby A., comes in off a good 5/6 weeks and ran a bullet in company with Shakis. The bullet worries me that it may have been too much but Stream is very live here.

Why would the bullet work worry you? Along with consistent figures, Stream of Gold consisently works fast.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by mes5107

Why would the bullet work worry you? Along with consistent figures, Stream of Gold consisently works fast.

As do most Kiarin horses. . . what would worry me is his 0/4 record at the distance, slowness, and outside post (maybe).

[mes5107]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

As do most Kiarin horses. . . what would worry me is his 0/4 record at the distance, slowness, and outside post (maybe).

That's what worries me. What draws me back in is his entrymate's ability to run a lightning pace. This would set up well for Stream of Gold if other horses run with Shake the Bank.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by mes5107

That's what worries me. What draws me back in is his entrymate's ability to run a lightning pace. This would set up well for Stream of Gold if other horses run with Shake the Bank.

Whose entry mate? Better Talk Now's rabbit isn't fooling anyone - I doubt it'll really set things up for deep closers.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

As do most Kiarin horses. . . what would worry me is his 0/4 record at the distance, slowness, and outside post (maybe).

They work fast when they work at Belmont. Did you see the 52 and change work going in for Abraaj? Another is correct, Stream does work consistently well. Outside post shouldn't be any problem at all. I think he breaks through.

[lemoncrush]

I realize this is capt. obvious, but the in my opinion, that absolute lock of the day is indian blessing.
She lays over these on class (beat proud spell twice), has a nice workout pattern for her return, and the 1-turn mile at Belmont should be exactly what she wants. A short field helps avoid any sort of troubled trip, and the ny bred shouldn't bother her much on the front end.
I'm singling her in all pick 4 and pick 3 plays today.

Good luck.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Preliminary look at Saturday.. Not going to have opportunity to comment much.. Enjoy the great day..

BELMONT PARK

Pre-Scratches/Changes...

NOTE CORRECTED R2-5 PICK 4..

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1e J. Jerkens entry 3-1 (Prado double-named) WON
Next Best: #7 Commandeered 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Tizbig 15-1 7th
Exotics Add: #2 Basha's Moon 12-1 3rd


2nd: MSW 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Tiz It 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Sixthirteen 7-2 WON
Best Value: #10 Golden Weekend 8-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 SCR

$1 Exacta (7-6) Paid $10.40
$1 Trifecta (7-6-10) Paid $31.25


3rd: NYB-MSW, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #8 Smart Enuf 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Piazza Di Spagna 5-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Seeking No More 6-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #10 American Brave 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $25.75
$1 Trifecta (4-5-8) Paid $59.25
$1 Daily Double (7-4) Paid $51.50
$1 Pick 3 (1-7-4) Paid $52,50
$1 Superfecta (4-5-8-10) Paid $697.00


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #4 Forefathers 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Vitruvius 8-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Teide 5-1 7th
Exotics Add: #8 Firejack 6-1 9th

$1 Pick 3 (7-4-4) Paid $61.50


5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Too Tough Pete 5-1 10th
Best Value: #1 (POE) Endless Circle 10-1
Next Best: #12 Benny the Waiter 3-1 7th
Exotics Add: #7 Dr. W 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-7) $134.25
$1 Daily Double (4-1) Paid $62.75
$1 Pick 3 (4-4-1) $310.50
$1 Pick 4 (3/7-4-3/4/9-1) $1,180.00


@$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7-10
3: 4-5-8
4: 4-5-11
5: 1-9-12

3x3x3x3 = $81

$1 Pick 4 (3/7-4-3/4/9-1) 4 Correct Paid $1,180.00


6th: 30th True North H. (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #7 Benny the Bull 4-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Abraaj 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Thor's Echo 7-2 4th
Exotics Add: #8 Man of Danger 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (7-8) Paid $7.20
$1 Trifecta (7-8-4) Paid $23.70
$1 Daily Double (1-7) Paid $48.25
$1 Pick 3 (4-1-7) 3 Correct Paid $88.50


7th: 15th Just a Game (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #5 Criminologist 9-2 7th
Most Likely: #1 Lady of Venice 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bit of Whimsey 4-1 6th
Exotics Add: #2 Spenditallbaby 30-1 9th


8th: 78th Acorn (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 8f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Zaftig 3-1 WON
Next Best:#3 Game Face 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #2 Indian Blessing 1-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $7.00


9th: 24th Woody Stephens (Gr. II), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #5 J Be K 3-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Majestic Warrior 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ready's Image 2-1 6th
Exotics Add: #8 Run With Me 30-1 9th


10th: 107th Manhattan H. (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Proudinsky 7-2 11th
Best Value: #6 Strike a Deal 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Shakis 10-1 9th
Exotics Add: #8 Pays to Dream 8-1 3rd


11th: 120th Belmont Stakes (Gr. I), 3yo, 12f (P3, $1 Super)

Without Casino Drive...

Most Likely: #1 Big Brown 2-5 9th
Best Value: #4 Denis of Cork 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tale of Ekati 20-1 6th
Exotics Add: #10 Icabad Crane 20-1 8th


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-5
9: 2-5-9
10: 6-9
11: 1-4-7-10

4x3x2x4 = $96


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 2-4-7
7: 1-3-5
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 5
10: 6-9
11: 1-4

3x3x4x1x2x2 = 144 x $2 = $288


12th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bella Attrice 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Laura's Fury 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 SCR
Exotics Add: #2 Cordilleran Ice 6-1 3rd


13th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f ($1 Super)

Best Value: #8 Benlayla 15-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Megapixel 3-1 WON
Next Best: #13 Law Enforcement 4-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #12 SCR


<$50 P4 Play:

10: 3-6-8-9
11: 1-4-7-10
12: 3
13: 3-8-13

4x4x1x3 = $48


Good luck!~
Steve

STEVE,

a belated thank you for the early pic 4 on belmont day. i usually take a look at your picks when i can and mix them with mine but i had no time but to take your top 2 in each race for a $16 pic 4 play. thanks again with that $40 something winner in the 4th leg i thought the payoff could be anything.

[ateamstupid]

Great job Steve, especially on the early part of the card. That pick four wasn't easy.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Great job Steve, especially on the early part of the card. That pick four wasn't easy.

Thx Oey... Best part was that the John & Patty Partygoers all had the plays printed out and cashed early and often...

Sorry I missed you Saturday..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Oey... Best part was that the John & Patty Partygoers all had the plays printed out and cashed early and often...

Sorry I missed you Saturday..

It's cool fool. I'll see you opening weekend at the Spa most likely.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

STEVE,

a belated thank you for the early pic 4 on belmont day. i usually take a look at your picks when i can and mix them with mine but i had no time but to take your top 2 in each race for a $16 pic 4 play. thanks again with that $40 something winner in the 4th leg i thought the payoff could be anything.

Gee,

My pleasure.. Thrilled you scored. It was good the race was run while we were on a commercial break.