Is Haskin joking?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

I just figured if I liked Monba enough in January to put him #2 in my first Derby Dozen, why not have some fun and put him #1 after winning the Blue Grass. Any other year I wouldn't even consider it.

You sunk Pyro right off of the top 10 - because of a non-effort in a race where the 9th, 10th, and 11 place finishers were last out winners of the Fountain of Youth, La Derby, and Tampa Derby.

Nevermind the fact that the top four finishers had last out dirt Beyers of 33, 58, 76, and 86. - the career top on dirt among the top four was a 93 earned by Kentucky Bear - who was 50/1 on the morning line in the race.

It's not like everyone didn't know that the Blue Grass was going to be pure chaos going into the race - and I think it's a folly to take the result of the race at face value - let alone make such decisive Derby decisions on the basis of the result.

I just don't know where Monba's good race is on dirt. He's run three pretty good races over synthetic - his dirt win came with just an 86 Beyer and a perfect trip (unarguably the fields best trip) - his non-effort in the Fountain Of Youth should be held against him no more than Pyro's non effort in the Blue Grass.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

Mr. Byk e-mailed and suggested I chime in and have fun with this thread. Why not? In a year like this, you gotta lighten up. 90% of us are gonna look like dummies after the race anyway, so might as well go down solo and not with the crowd with Colonel John and Big Brown. As far as whether I'm serious or not...a little bit. As far as whether I bet (the Derby)...a little bit. Do I really like anyone this year? No. For a price I'll look at Smooth Air and Adriano, and maybe Court Vision to hit the board. After that, take your pick. I just figured if I liked Monba enough in January to put him #2 in my first Derby Dozen, why not have some fun and put him #1 after winning the Blue Grass. Any other year I wouldn't even consider it.

Thanks Steve, you always need luck in this race and this year even more. If you covered the entire field and anybody but Big Brown, Colonel John or Pyro wins.....you should show a profit. Hell, that's the way my late dad use to do it!

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

Mr. Byk e-mailed and suggested I chime in and have fun with this thread. Why not? In a year like this, you gotta lighten up. 90% of us are gonna look like dummies after the race anyway, so might as well go down solo and not with the crowd with Colonel John and Big Brown. As far as whether I'm serious or not...a little bit. As far as whether I bet (the Derby)...a little bit. Do I really like anyone this year? No. For a price I'll look at Smooth Air and Adriano, and maybe Court Vision to hit the board. After that, take your pick. I just figured if I liked Monba enough in January to put him #2 in my first Derby Dozen, why not have some fun and put him #1 after winning the Blue Grass. Any other year I wouldn't even consider it.

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.


MONBA
Postives: None

Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):

Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)

5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

Who gives a crap? Blackberry Road is bred to be a monster too.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

We're picking winners based on trainers? How's that worked for Pletcher fans?

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

So did Anak Nakal.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

Eh, that's subjective, so I can't argue.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

I shudder to think what his first four gears are if that's his fifth.

[ArlJim78]

the overdue trainer angle? normally you only hear that one when you're at the track or OTB and its usually from a guy using a safety pin to help keep his trousers up.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Wow, I couldn't possibly disagree more. Court Vision hasn't improved a step since his IRQ 6 months ago. His Wood and FOY were plenty enough to prove he is a SLOW horse and does just enough to clunk up for a check. His 5th gear is the fact that he hasn't run a step all race and is passing the tiring ones. I am not a Monba tout but at least he appears to have improved as a 3yo and has the style and talent to work out a decent trip in the Derby.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.


MONBA
Postives: None

Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):

Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)

5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.

Didnt Charasmatic win the Lexington?

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.


MONBA
Postives: None

Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):

Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)

5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.

.........bag of goodies

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

Especially since he listed Mott "being due" as one of Court Vision's positives.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

Simply put, NO.

Only one trainer gets to win the big dance each year, it just so happens that he hasnt won it. Yet.

[hockey2315]

And he still wins plenty of big races- Breeders' Cups, etc... How would Assmussen or Dutrow ever win the races they do if it was tougher to drug up their horses on the big days? Either these guys use things that aren't being detected or their top stock just doesn't need the stuff. . .

[slotdirt]

Make no mistake though, Pletcher will win the Derby at some point in his career. I know, that's really going out on a limb...