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#1
04-25-2023, 11:13 PM
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With a decided lack of true front-running speed, it seems like most of this is debatable.
Jace's Road is listed as a front-runner yet he decidedly took back behind Kingsbarn in the Louisiana Derby. The only time he set the pace was in a slowly run race. Forte usually breaks well and settles midfield. He had a terrible post in the FL Derby & was shuffled back on the first turn in the Breeder's Futurity. Don't see him trailing. Rocket Can has always been in a stalking position early. Confidence Game actually wired a field that included Rocket Can. He's been forwardly placed all year and was floated out not once but twice while trying to show speed by listed presser Verifying on the first turn in the quickly run Rebel. He also skipped the final round of preps so should be fresh stretching out to 10 furlongs from 8.5f. Continuar has faced Derma Sotogake three times now; he has in front of DS early in a Japanese race, alongside him in Saudi Arabia, and less than 2 lengths away in Dubai. Hit Show is never too far away early. However, he was used quite a bit in the Wood from the outside post; the Withers is probably a truer line where he is likely to be just behind the 2nd flight without being completely out of it. Who knows what to make of Wild On Ice, but the horse was less than 2 lengths away of a :45+ half last time and dueled through a :44 flat half in his 2nd start. In both the 2 races where he failed to establish early position he was bumped at the start. Mage is another head scratcher. He missed the break in the FL Derby yet ran the race of his life. That off-the-pace style might serve him best at CD as opposed to reverting to a stalking/pressing trip. His turn off foot is a huge weapon in a race like this. Will he have it if he is used early? Finally, I would guess given Baffert's penchant for stealing big races on the front end, that Reincarnate will attempt to go straight to the front a la Medina Spirit, who reverted back to a front-running style to great--if only short term--effect after a couple of stalking trips in his prep races. Last edited by Kasept : 04-26-2023 at 03:21 AM. 
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#2
04-26-2023, 02:59 AM
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Thx Rollo! Will add the Thoro-Graph opening quarter look and Timeform Pace Projector to get their interpretations too..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#3
05-12-2023, 05:37 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
05-12-2023, 09:13 PM
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Great students of the game we have here with all these trainers who collectively have decided that the Preakness is not a race worth winning.
We are left with another relatively paceless & rag tag field that once again features a dearth of horses coming out of the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher & Cox didn't think Kingsbarns & Verifying might take a page out of Snow Chief's or Louis Quatorze's rewrites at Pimlico? Cox didn't think Angel of Empire could emulate the redemption of beaten Derby favorites Prairie Bayou, Timber Country, Point Given or Hansel? Rivelli didn't think that Two Phil's might get a boost on the more speed friendly confines of Pimlico a la Summer Squall, Tabasco Cat, or Curlin? Mott & Cox didn't think that Derby pretenders Rocket Can & Hit Show might actually come to hand in Baltimore like Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, Risen Star, Oxbow, War of Will, Shackleford, or Pine Bluff? And where's the imagination of all these international trainers who are willing to throw their impressionable 3yos at the Derby behemoth and expect (or pray) that they can handle all the shipping, quarantines, and hoopla surrounding that race but don't think a second go 'round two weeks later might be on more favorable terms with a race under their belts? Derma Sotogake wouldn't have a relished an anemic pace scenario at Old Hilltop like he did in Dubai? Aidan O'Brien doesn't have a bunch of floundering Quality Road, Justify, or American Pharaoh colts sitting around at Ballydoyle that might actually wake up on a dirt track? Well, at least we got Ed Moger, who basically admitted he's only running because he & his owner want to have front row seats to the Preakness party, bringing the winner of the El Camino Real Derby, a race that has produced 6 Preakness winners since the 1980s... I guess Confidence Game is going to the front?
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#6
05-13-2023, 02:31 PM
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#7
05-13-2023, 06:08 PM
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PREAKNESS PROBABLES/POSSIBLES
Mage (Delgado/Castellano) Red Route One (Asmussen/Rosario) First Mission (Cox/Saez) Coffeewithchris (Salzman) National Treasure (Baffert/Velazquez) Blazing Sevens (C. Brown/I. Ortiz) Perform (McGaughey/Lynch) Chase the Chaos (Moger/TBA)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
05-13-2023, 06:32 PM
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__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#9
05-22-2023, 04:18 AM
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6/10 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES
Tapit Trice (Pletcher/Saez) Forte (Pletcher/I. Ortiz) Kingsbarns (Pletcher) Prove Worthy (Pletcher) National Treasure (Baffert) Reincarnate (Baffert) Angel of Empire (Cox) Hit Show (Cox) Red Route One (Asmussen) Arcangelo (Antonucci) Henry Q (O'Neill) Raise Cain (Colebrook)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#10
05-22-2023, 10:19 AM
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So in addition to these HOF trainers who think slapping blinkers on a horse mid-career is some stroke of genius (as opposed to evidence of incompetence...if they are such brilliant horsemen, why wasn't the horse wearing them before?), now we have these first time in the spotlight trainers pretending to be conservative...in the middle of the Triple Crown?
It's like waiting in line for 2 hours at the height of summer in 100-degree weather at Disneyland to ride Space Mountain & then bailing out when the ride operator lifts up the safety bar so you can take your seat... Anybody think for a second that Two Phil's claiming trainer is a conservative sort? If he wants to turn the horse into Lost Code that's one thing, but that's not what he's doing. It's the classic 'one in the hand is worth less than 2 in the bush' stupidity. He had the Preakness at his mercy, has a style that is conducive to the Belmont even if you think the pedigree isn't there, and he's worried about the Haskell (which let's face it is simply one of two main preps for the Travers)? The Travers itself is over 2 months after the Belmont. You don't need to skip Triple Crown races because you're worried about having enough time to recover. Give this guy his Fast Pass to the Tea Cups... And this guy that trains Mage, suddenly he thinks he needs to give the horse a rest? You've been going full out since late last year, one more hurdle to jump and you're going to opt out? Yeah, you're doing right by the horse. You weren't worried about jumping up from a maiden sprint to a graded two turn race against a champion second time out or making your third start in a premiere Derby prep or running your horse with an untimely cut to the head 2 days before the race. Just hold him down without a sedative (cuz he'll test positive) and staple his open cut shut. Went friggin' Rambo on the horse but, no, that start in the Belmont 3 weeks from now, no that's too much. Just sit in the shade while the rest of us have fun & you can meet us at It's A Small World. Where's Chip Woolley when you need him? Woolley Chuck Norris'd all these genius trainers that think they are entitled to the Triple Crown spotlight year in, year out. Dude wore a giant cast on a broken leg that was gangrenous & still rode a motorcycle across the country to run in all 3 Triple Crown races. The horse had it easy...
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#11
05-22-2023, 11:07 AM
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I didn't even think of the no sedative part. But it's all about the horse, ya know?
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#13
05-27-2023, 01:06 PM
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Pletcher also reported that Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns, who finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby, will miss the Belmont Stakes. The son of Uncle Mo missed a scheduled breeze on Friday after demonstrating signs of colic that morning.
“We’re going to be knocked off course. He had a bout of colic,” Pletcher said.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#14
06-06-2023, 08:40 AM
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6/10 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES
Tapit Trice (Pletcher/Saez) Forte (Pletcher/I. Ortiz) National Treasure (Baffert) Angel of Empire (Cox) Hit Show (Cox) Tapit Shoes (Cox) Red Route One (Asmussen) Arcangelo (Antonucci) Il Miracolo (Sano)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#15
06-06-2023, 10:31 AM
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Side note for the undercard, the Met Mile lost Taiba after unsatisfactory training but gained Dr. Schivel who opts for the Met instead of the True North. Bit of a bold move for the latter (it was announced before Taiba came out) with the field that was lining up. Is there a monster in the True North? Where is Elite Power?
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#16
06-06-2023, 11:00 AM
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Just looked up the nominees for both races. There's some cross-nominees obviously but the True North has about half a dozen horses that have won 5 or 6 of their last 10 starts. Don't know their relative class, but when you get a bunch of horses together who know how to win it usually makes for a good race. Plus Following Sea is back in action. Thought he fell into a black hole since he made no starts in 2022. Fearless, who converted into a staying horse last is also nominated for what presumably would be strictly a prep race at 6 furlongs.
Over on the Met Mile side, I'm interested in Charge It bouncing back. The betting public is sure to abandon him after the money he's burned in his last 2. I hope they shed the blinkers as that move was a complete botch job in the Oaklawn Handicap, though it is not critical as there is not a whole lot of front-running or even pressing speed lined up for the race. Charge It could get a trip similar to last year's Dwyer though obviously there will be much better horses behind waiting to pounce compared to that race.
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#17
06-06-2023, 11:42 AM
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Where to start....Elite Power was supposed to run in the Met but it feels Mott convinced Juddmonte to run in the True North. As far as Following Sea, he ran a few weeks ago. He's around the eighth pole about now.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#18
06-06-2023, 11:55 AM
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That aside, is he even supposed to show up this weekend off the less than stellar comeback?
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