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#1
05-02-2020, 05:10 AM
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5/2: Oaklawn ~ Arkansas Derby Day (4th-14th)
OAKLAWN PARK
POST-SCRATCHES NOTE: Speed was pronounced Friday to the point of carrying front end horses; Use races 1-5 (4 sprints, 1 route) to gauge conditions before serious multi-race wagering begins with middle P4 (R6-9).. 4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Major Attraction 7-2 3rd Next Best: #11 Bank 3-1 WON ($5.00) Best Value: #13 Illuminati 20-1 5th ~ (ALT: #5 Quality Warrior 15-1 2nd) Exotics Use: #9 Uncle Addouma 4-1 4th 5th: Opt CLM/C, 4+. 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #9 Bankit 9-2 2nd Next Best: #11 Endorsed 7-2 WON ($6.80) Best Value: #8 Two Thirty Five 8-1 9th Exotics Use: #12 Pirates Punch 3-1 3rd 6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Friar's Road 7-2 2nd Best Value: #7 Ring of Fire 10-1 11th Next Best: #5 Hunt the Front 4-1 WON ($7.00) Exotics Use: #6 What a Country 10-1 6th 7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD) Highly anticipated 2nd start of Gamine, but note that Ain't No Elmers draws in and Speech is solid. Was using Black Kat Taps yesterday but she SCR'd for this spot. Not a win candidate, but value underneath circling back to a good effort while reunited with BJ Hernandez.. Most Likely: #8 Gamine 7-5 WON ($3.20) Next Best: #13 Ain't No Elmers 5-2 5th Best Value: #3 Black Kat Taps 20-1 9th Exotics Use: #10 Speech 2-1 2nd 8th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Fra Mauro 9-2 3rd Next Best: #1 Benintendi 8-1 7th Best Value: #7 Don Vito Corleone 12-1 10th Exotics Use: #10 Moretti 5-2 WON ($7.40) 9th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Best Value: #7 Rotation 9-2 7th Next Best: #1 Popular Kid 4-1 10th Exotics Use: #3 Fearless 3-1 2nd Super Add: #2 Always 8-1 6th P4 Grid: 6: 4-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C) 7: 8-13 (A), - (B), 10 (C) 8: 1-5-7 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C) 9: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 10th: OC/N$Y, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD) Tricky read about pace with Ginobili stretching out and certainly first on to the backstretch with other alleged pace players having 'route' speed. Track played kindly to front end types Friday.. Most Likely: #11 Rushie 5-2 WON ($8.00) Best Value: #10 Prodigous Bay 5-1 4th Next Best: #2 Ginobili 7-2 - Exotics Use: #12 Background 15-1 3rd 11th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD) Charlatan was a heavy favorite even prospect for pace pressure came out. Expect Anneau d'Or runs better today reunited with JJ Hernandez. Most Likely: #1 Charlatan 1-1 WON ($2.80) Best Value: #8 Anneau d'Or 6-1 5th Next Best: #4 Gouverneur Morris 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Winning Impression 15-1 4th 12th: Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD) With the speeds inside, Improbable SCR'D stands to sit a comfortable 3rd-4th on to the backstretch. Return race was terrific and while he won't be 8-1, will still be a square enough number given the deep cast. Fascinating lineup with at least half eligible for laurels.. Best Value: #2 Trophy Chaser 12-1 13th Next Best: #9 Tacitus 9-2 4th Exotics Use: #7 Combatant 4-1 10th Super Add: #4 Mr Freeze 6-1 3rd 13th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD) Most Likely: #5 Nadal 5-2 WON ($3.80) Next Best: #4 King Guillermo 3-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Storm the Court 6-1 5th Exotics Use: #10 Farmington Road 12-1 4th 14th: 'Trail's End' S/ALW, 3+, 14f Most Likely: #5 Carlos Sixes 4-1 7th Best Value: #9 Take Charge d'Oro 10-1 WON ($39.60) Next Best: #7 Wickett's Way 8-1 12th Exotics Use: #14 River Echo 8-1 2nd P5 Grid: 10: 2-10-11 (A), 4-7-12 (B), - (C) 11: 1 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C) 12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C) 13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C) 14: 5 (A), 9 (B), 1-7-14 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 3x1x5x2x1 = 30 x .50 = $15 P4 Grid: 11: 1 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C) 12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C) 13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C) 14: 1-5-7-9-14 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75 All A's: 1x5x2x5 = 50 x .50 = $25 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-02-2020 at 08:53 PM. 
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#2
05-02-2020, 09:45 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-02-2020 at 11:19 AM.
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#3
05-02-2020, 10:32 AM
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Improbable out of Handicap..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
05-02-2020, 11:34 AM
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Trophy Chaser has a big shot here. Good luck Steve
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#5
05-02-2020, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato
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