State of the Breeding Industry...

I wrote this in another forum... be interesting to see others thoughts.

SO, I was going through the Keeneland November sale with the knowledge that im going to be buying a mare and I find myself looking at mares that I normally wouldnt. I realized, I was gravitating toward mares by turf stallions or from european families. I've always been a turf fan but I keep the fact that to succeed in this business, especially as a very small breeder, you have to constantly look at it as a business (which it is), and make decisions based on whats best for the market. Turf was never that great in the US commercial market... almost shunned. A pedigree without familiar US-based names often didnt have the buyers attention.

But now we have two new variables in this already unpredictable business for breeders.

The first, the inclusion of polytrack to major circuits. I think its pretty much a for-gone conclusion that most tracks over the next 10 years will be of this synthetic surface. The health benefits to the horse make it a benefit, but what about today's breeders?

Here's the problem... if you bred a mare this upcoming spring, that foal will be born in 08, ready to race in 2010... which should mean a majority of polytracks in the US by the time that foal hits the track.

With new polytracks just now getting runners of quality, and in small numbers considering, does one automatically jump to the thinking that turf horses seem better fitted to the surface? If thats the case, breed to turf, right? Well wait, we dont know this to be true, yet. We're assuming because polytrack was utilized first in Europe where all their runners are turf oriented. So really, what does that tell us as breeders?

Whats the answer? Do we watch the races now being held on polytrack for the next 6 months like hawks? Should we check out every sire of every winner of every polytrack race and use that as a guide? Should we just include allowance winners and up? Just stakes winners? Regardless, its still a small sample. Its still a work in progress... but does that mean we, as small breeders, should just ignore the new surface and pretend it doesnt mean a thing?

It might seem like something we dont have to worry about today, but it really is a pressing issue. Part of the success of certain small breeders is that they're always ahead of the curve. Sending mares to stallions that may not be headline grabbers (Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality)... it's their mares who made those two what they are today. Those successes have proven their mares, and in turn, part of our job as successful breeders, is to prove our mares as well. But how do we do that if we dont know how this new surface plays?

Then, half way through checking out all these european mares, I say to myself "What the hell am I doing... it might not matter at all in the end." Maybe the top dirt sires and sire-lines will be just as successful on polytrack... but there's still a "maybe" in the equation, and thats something to think about as a small breeder. We dont always have the safety nets and the room for error that others have.

The second variable is the Godolphin-Coolmore situation. Does anyone with psychic powers know when its going to end? I certainly would love to know. I wouldnt be shocked to see some Coolmore stud fees drop over the next two years, which is great, unless Godolphin is still boycotting.

It might seem like something only breeders in Book 1 of Keeneland September need to worry about, but its not. We breed to the best we can afford and hope that the mares family only improves with its other relatives... We breed with the dream of hitting a big homerun. And we all know, the homeruns come from bidding wars driven, usually, by the two parties above.

So what do we do? Do we ignore a 30k stud fee on a Coolmore horse thats proven and fits the mare, and go for a neutral stallion that isnt as good of a match but still keeps that hope of a homerun alive? Its hard to tell... who can see in the future?

How far will this go? Right now its only stallions that stand at the two specific properties... but could the feud go farther? Could it also be by any stallion who's sired by a Coolmore horse? For example, could they also boycott offspring of First Samurai because he's by Giant's Causeway? Sounds ridiculous until you think this whole thing is nothing but an ego driven attempt at superiority. Who's to say where it will end?

Does that mean I should stay away from mares infoal to Coolmore stallions in November? If im paying for the pregnancy I want the chance for that homerun... remember?

In the end, im going to chalk this all up to the fact that its that time of month. Maybe i'll just look at the catalogue in a few days... but gosh... could there be any more variables in this business? I guess its what makes it exciting and more of a passion than anything else.